Recently, Braves manager Brian Snitker was talking to Hall of Famer Tom Glavine about the road ahead, and Glavine said something like this:
“At least you control your own destiny.”
This is true.
Wait, what? How can a team behind in the standings control its own destiny?
Well, the Braves control their own destiny because they have a three-game series with the team ahead of them. Thus, they control whether or not they play in October or go home after Sunday.
“You’re right,” Snitker said about Atlanta controlling its own fate. “We gotta win every day.”
On Tuesday, the Braves and Mets will begin a three-game series at Truist Park. The winner will own the tiebreaker because it will have the better head-to-head record this season. The Braves are two games back of New York and Arizona for the two of the three final National League wild card berths.
What that means: To pass the Mets, the Braves must sweep them. If the Braves win two of three, they’ll need to make up a game in the season’s final series – the Braves host the Royals and the Mets travel to Milwaukee. But if the Braves were to take two of three from New York and eventually finish tied by season’s end, they would pass the Mets because of the tiebreaker.
The crazy part: This is almost an identical situation to two years ago, when the teams were battling for the NL East crown. The Mets went to Atlanta up two games, and the Braves knew they needed a sweep. They swept New York and won the division, which left the Mets to play the wild card series.
This time, the stakes might be higher because the loser may not even make the postseason. This, of course, depends on how Arizona does at home against San Francisco and San Diego. The Diamondbacks are two games ahead of the Braves, who own the tiebreaker on them. So, in theory, the Braves don’t need to make the playoffs over the Mets if Arizona falters. The Braves and Mets might both play in October.
Are you nervous yet?
For all of the Braves’ injuries, for all of the offensive slumps, for all of the unfortunate bounces, for all of the times it felt like destiny was not on this team’s side … they still control their own fate.
“It’s good,” Sean Murphy said. “That means it just comes down to us. We don’t have any need for scoreboard-watching or anything like that. If we win, we’re in, (with) the way it looks like it’s coming down.”
It’s quite the opportunity. The Braves, who have had to check the scores of the competitors they’ve chased, now can flip this race. They know what they must do. They understand they can leapfrog the Mets with a sweep.
Will it be easy? No. Will it happen? Maybe not, considering this team has often fallen short when more was needed. But is it possible? Yes.
To that point, the Braves have swept five three-game series this season. But three were in April. They’ve only done it once since the middle of June. It’s difficult to sweep a good team, and the Mets have proven themselves to be resilient.
“I think we just need to stay calm, play our own game, take it day to day, game to game,” closer Raisel Iglesias said through interpreter Franco García. “Focus on doing the little things right that ultimately add up to winning games.”
Here’s something to remember: In 2022, the Braves were baseball’s hottest team from the start of June through the end of the regular season. This season, they’ve struggled to sustain momentum, particularly because of their depleted lineup. They aren’t the same offense, and it has held them back. Their pitching has kept them in this race.
The Mets, on the other hand, just took three of four games from the Phillies – without NL MVP candidate Francisco Lindor. The Phillies had a chance to clinch the division on Sunday and Monday, but the Mets denied them. On Sunday night, the Mets beat Phillies ace Zack Wheeler (again, without Lindor). This is super impressive.
Since the start of June, the Mets are 63-36. The Braves are 53-48 over the same time. The Braves have two six-game losing streaks in this second half alone. This week’s matchup is different solely because the Mets are hot – whereas they were losing games to bad teams two Septembers ago. The Braves have struggled to stay within striking distance.
But they have.
They are right there.
They can shock the Mets.
On Tuesday, Spencer Schwellenbach will face Mets right-hander Luis Severino. On Wednesday, Chris Sale goes against lefty David Peterson. On Thursday, Max Fried starts against left-hander Sean Manaea.
The Braves have their three best healthy starters going in this series. They should be in every game because of that.
To this point, the Braves have frustrated their fans with their maddening inconsistency and, at times, inexcusable play.
But guess what?
The Braves control their own destiny. They can effectively end the Mets’ season while extending their own.
Given everything that has occurred for the Braves this season, that’s one heck of an opportunity.
“You knew it a couple weeks ago, right, that series is probably gonna help decide this thing,” Murphy said. “We know what we’re up against and we know what we gotta do.”
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