Politically Georgia: Decision day

Editor’s note: An earlier version of this newsletter has been corrected to reflect Rep. Deb Silcox’s final vote on Georgia’s 2019 abortion bill.

Today’s newsletter highlights include:

A look back at presidential campaigning in Georgia.
Seven states that could decide the election.
Why many evangelical Black voters are voting Republican.

At long last, the final votes for president will be cast today, and we’ll soon find out if Georgia’s flip to Democrats in 2020 was a fleeting shift or a lasting political transformation.

You can read plenty about the factors that will decide the contest and the counties that could provide clues about the outcome.

But there are plenty of other benchmarks and down-ticket races that we’re also closely monitoring.

Credit: AJC file photos

Credit: AJC file photos

1. A bellwether race. The contest between state Rep. Deborah Silcox, R-Sandy Springs, and her Democratic challenger Susie Greenberg could reveal what role abortion rights played in 2024 races. Silcox missed a committee vote on Republicans’ 2019 bill banning abortions after fetal cardiac activity is detected, but voted against the bill twice on the House floor. Greenberg has portrayed the missed committee vote as an act against abortion rights. If Greenberg wins the suburban Atlanta race, expect Democrats to have a big night, fueled by the power of the abortion issue among women.

2. Turnout in Clayton County and South DeKalb. Republicans are giddy over the sky-high early vote turnout in Georgia’s most conservative areas, while Democrats are sweating the lower-than-average turnout in some of their most vote-rich areas, specifically Clayton County and areas of South DeKalb. If Clayton and DeKalb stay quiet today, Republicans will feel good about their chances of winning the state.

3. Early results. A new state law means that Georgia will report early and absentee voting results toward the beginning of the night instead of at the end of the process. That means we may know whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump carried Georgia before other swing states. But the timing all depends on how close the race is — the closer the result, the longer the wait for a final tally.

Credit: Courtesy photo

4. DA race. Athens-Clarke County District Attorney Deborah Gonzalez is facing a tough challenge from independent Kalki Yalamanchili after a rocky four-year tenure. The race is also expected to drive conservative turnout, as well as split-ticket voting, since progressive Mayor Kelly Girtz endorsed Yalamanchili.

5. Fayette County. Long a Republican stronghold, Fayette has grown more competitive in the Trump era. The former president captured 58% of its vote in 2016 but just 53% in 2020. Two years ago, though, Republican Gov. Brian Kemp nabbed 56% of Fayette’s vote. Fayette’s results will be crucial to both camps.

***

GOOD MORNING! It’s Election Day. The polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. The first big batch of ballots should be reported by 8 p.m. Stay with the AJC today for all the news and analysis from a key battleground state. Important links:

Driving the day: live updates. This is the place for news about voting and turnout.
Still on the fence? Check out our Voter Guide. It has tons of info about the candidates and questions on the ballot.
Need more info? Dive into our 2024 election stories.
Results: find Georgia results here (president, Congress, state Legislature and statewide ballot questions) and national election results here (Keep up with the electoral votes and which states have and haven’t been called). Check out U.S. House and Senate results here (which party will win a majority in Congress?).

***

Credit: John Bazemore/AP

WE MADE IT. When the Republican vice presidential nominee — Ohio U.S. Sen. JD Vance — walked on stage at the Cobb Galleria Centre on Monday, it marked at least the 49th time a presidential candidate or their running mate has visited Georgia this election cycle, according to the AJC’s tracker.

That’s not the most. Pennsylvania had 59 visits since August, according to the nonprofit Fair Vote. But the number of visits show Georgia’s importance in the complex calculus of presidential campaigning — an equation that undoubtedly benefits Georgia’s economy.

Those 49 visits do not include the hundreds of events the campaigns held throughout the state without the candidates present. It also doesn’t include the hundreds of paid staffers and thousands more volunteers who worked long hours to turn out votes.

And the ads. Total spending on presidential ads in Georgia — which includes TV, digital and radio — was more than $318 million as of Monday, according to the tracking firm AdImpact.

That’s from the beginning of 2023 until Election Day and includes markets that might extend outside of the state but whose ads were targeting Georgia voters. Democrats have an edge overall, spending $182 million compared to $135 million for Republicans (the rest, $959,000, were from independents).

Will Georgia keep its place among presidential swing states? That depends on the results. Campaigns only spend time and money in a state if they know they need it to win. If either side wins convincingly, it could discourage campaigns from coming back here for the 2028 cycle. But if the polls are to be believed, we’re in for another squeaker today.

***

Credit: Jacquelyn Martin/AP

A REFRESHER. We’ll all be watching the presidential results trickle in tonight from across the country. The AJC, like most news agencies, often relies on the Associated Press to make “race calls” on Election Day. There’s a lot that goes into how they do that, and you can read about it here.

But what most people want to know is when we’ll know the winner in each state. That’s impossible to say for sure (although a new state law means Georgia’s results are likely to be known earlier than most.)

While every vote matters, the presidential election is likely to be decided by results in seven states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The 2020 election was on Nov. 3. Here’s how long we had to wait for the AP to declare the winner of those states (all won by Democrat Joe Biden) after their polls closed:

Arizona. About five hours. The AP called the race at 2:51 a.m. on Nov. 4, which was probably still election night for most people.
Georgia: More than two weeks. The AP called Georgia for Biden on Nov. 19 following an official recount. But the AJC had projected Biden as the winner days earlier on Nov. 13.
Michigan: About a day. The AP called it at 5:58 p.m. on Nov. 4.
Nevada: Four days. The AP declared Biden the winner at 12:13 p.m. on Nov. 7.
North Carolina: 10 days. The AP called it at 3:49 p.m. on Nov. 13.
Pennsylvania: Four days. The call came in at 11:25 a.m. on Nov. 7.
Wisconsin: About 17 hours. AP called it at 2:16 p.m. the day after Election Day.

***

Credit: Evan Vucci/AP

CHECK YOUR WATCH. Voting today? Take note of how long it takes you to get through the line.

A Georgia law passed in 2021 aims to keep lines on Election Day less than one hour for big precincts (2,000 or more voters). If you have to wait in line for more than one hour before checking in to vote at your polling place, then officials have to make some changes for the next election. They could reduce the size of the precinct or provide more machines and poll workers. Or they could do both.

“Lines have to be shorter than one hour. And we will be tracking it,” Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger told reporters on Monday.

Long lines haven’t been much of a problem in Georgia since the 2020 primary. Since then, average wait times in Georgia elections have been about two minutes, per the AJC’s election expert Mark Niesse.

***

Credit: Jacquelyn Martin/AP

ELECTION MONITORS. The U.S. Department of Justice said it plans to monitor compliance with federal voting rights laws in Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton, Gwinnett and Macon-Bibb counties in Georgia.

They are among the 86 jurisdictions in 27 states that the feds will watch on Election Day. In addition to ensuring federal laws are being followed, DOJ staff will be available to receive questions and complaints from the public.

You can report issues through the department’s website or by calling 800-253-3931.

***

LIGHTS OUT. Some levity for your Election Day.

A tornado destroyed the Newnan High School building in 2021. The Coweta County School District built a new building, which opened this year.

On Monday, Georgia lawmakers held a hearing at the new school to examine the state’s response to natural disasters.

Newnan High School Principal Gamal Kemp was in the middle of telling lawmakers all about the new building when suddenly the lights went out.

“We’re still working out the bugs,” he said.

Despite the glitch, lawmakers seemed impressed with the school’s construction. It includes a tornado shelter and special doors designed to withstand high winds.

***

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

LISTEN UP. Today on “Politically Georgia‚” the hosts share their expert analysis of this election season. You’ll hear from voters at polling places, AJC bureau chiefs Fletcher Page (Athens), Joe Kovac (Macon) and Adam Van Brimmer (Savannah) as well as student reporters from around the Atlanta metro area. Plus, the AJC’s election expert Mark Niesse will discuss how soon to expect the results.

Be sure to download the AJC’s Politically Georgia podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Episodes are uploaded by noon each day, just in time to have lunch with us. You can also listen live at 10 a.m. EDT on 90.1 FM WABE. Have a question for the show? Give us a call at 770-810-5297.

On Monday’s show, Gabriel Sterling, chief operating officer for the Georgia Secretary of State’s office, talked about voter confidence and what to expect on Election Day. Plus, political strategist Rick Dent joined the show.

***

Credit: TNS

END OF THE TRAIL. Vice President Kamala Harris will take in election results from the campus of her alma mater, Howard University, in Washington, D.C. Former President Donald Trump will spend the day at his Mar-a-Lago home in South Florida.

If the election is close, we might not get a victory or concession speech from either candidate. Although both will likely deliver remarks of some kind to the hundreds of supporters who are gathered with them.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Harris’ running mate, will campaign in Middletown and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, before joining Harris in Washington.

***

Credit: Tia Mitchell/AJC

BLACK EVANGELICALS FOR TRUMP. Former President Donald Trump’s most devout supporters gathered last week at the inaugural National Faith Summit in Powder Springs to pray for him and for his campaign.

The audience was more diverse than his usual rallies, an indication of the diversity among evangelical Christians that make up a key component of Trump’s base. While the vast majority of Black voters are poised to support Vice President Kamala Harris, many evangelical Black voters say they are siding with the pastors and congregations who believe Trump is the only correct choice at the ballot box.

“When I look at voting for a president, I’m always looking from a biblical perspective about the laws, about philosophies that they’re bringing into our country,” said Pastor Robert Flowers of the Center of Hope Church in St. Louis. “His views about the border, about abortion, about different things like that, they are biblical views that as Christians we must support and uphold.”

***

Credit: Natrice Miller/AJC

SHOUTOUTS. Today’s birthday:

State Rep. James Burchett, R-Waycross, who is running unopposed on his birthday.

Want a birthday shoutout in the Politically Georgia newsletter? There’s a form for that! Click here to submit the shoutouts. It’s not just birthdays. We’re also interested in new jobs, engagements, birth announcements, etc.

***

AS ALWAYS, send your best scoops, gossip and insider info to greg.bluestein@ajc.com, tia.mitchell@ajc.com, patricia.murphy@ajc.com and adam.beam@ajc.com.

About the Authors