Sports Daily: Opening Day predictions

Oh, and you know what else? Ken Sugiura’s predictions!

Quick links: Bobo, Faulkner kids pick schools | Another hurt Hawk | Langer’s last Masters

KEN WEIGHS IN

Credit: AP

Credit: AP

Every Thursday, Sports Daily checks in with AJC columnist Ken Sugiura. This week, he’s looking into his opening day crystal ball to predict what lies in the Braves’ future. Enjoy!

I’m not big on making predictions. You may remember that it was a calling card for Mark Bradley, who was happy (or at least willing) to put himself out there and then honorably kept score. I think part of it is my rearing as a beat writer, a job in which you’re supposed to keep your opinions to yourself.

But our friend Tyler asked me to make three predictions about the 2025 Braves, and I figured it was time to put on my big-boy columnist pants and tenuously step onto the ledge. So here they are.

1. The Braves will win at least 94 games this season.

This one, I confess, is not very far out onto the ledge. Two online sports gambling sites have the Braves’ over/under win total at 93.5 and 93. (One of them has the Dodgers at an absurd 105.5.) The Braves won 89 last year with, as we all know, a roster decimated by injury.

🔮 Atlanta did lose Max Fried and Charlie Morton and will be without reliever Joe Jiménez for at least the first half the season. But you’d have to think that with Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider back, Spencer Schwellenbach in for a full season and Matt Olson presumably not repeating his substandard numbers, they’ll win at least five more games this year than they did in 2024. And probably more than that.

2. Watch out for Schwellenbach

Confession time again. This is based a lot on an evaluation I received from an MLB scout whom I spoke with for a column that I humbly suggest might be worth your time, as he gave an in-depth breakdown of the Braves roster and particular players — players he likes/is less keen on, strengths, areas of concern, etc. But I would say that predictions should be based on solid information and not random guesses.

The thing that stood out most to me from the interview was how on board he was with Schwellenbach having a great season.

My sense before that was that regression to mean and Schwellenbach’s sophomore status would suggest he wouldn’t repeat his rookie numbers (3.35 ERA, 1.043 WHIP in 21 starts). But the scout’s enthusiasm colored my viewpoint.

As he put it, “Nothing he will do this year will surprise me.”

Meaning, no height Schwellenbach reaches would surprise him — not, like, he wouldn’t be surprised if Schwellenbach learned to speak Mandarin.

🔮 Let’s mark down Schwellenbach for 15 wins and 175 strikeouts. Last year, that would have tied for seventh in MLB in wins and 25th in strikeouts.

Credit: HYOSUB SHIN / AJC

Credit: HYOSUB SHIN / AJC

3. Ozzie Albies will have a bounce-back season

I found this interesting about Albies, who has fought injuries throughout his career.

Starting in 2019, Albies has played in 96% of the Braves’ regular-season games in odd-numbered seasons but exactly half in even-numbered seasons. (I am compelled to include that he did play 158 games in 2018.)

A lot of this — maybe all of it — is chance, but this limited sample suggests that chances are he’ll avoid injury in 2025 and play a full season.

And when he’s done that, he has slugged, averaging 29 home runs and 100 RBI in 2019, 2021 and 2023.

🔮 Further, at 28, he’s in his prime. I’ll say Albies goes to the All-Star game for a fourth time (at Truist Park this year) and hits 31 home runs.

One last word: I had Missouri and Iowa State in my Final Four and the Cyclones in the final and both are out. (I do still have Duke and Houston, with the Cougars winning.) As of Thursday morning, I stood 16,215,178th in the ESPN bracket contest. Accept any forecasts from my laptop with due skepticism.

Thanks for reading! Please reach out anytime — ksugiura@ajc.com.

SAYING SO LANG(ER)

Credit: Jason Getz/AJC

Credit: Jason Getz/AJC

The Masters tees off two weeks from today! And the AJC’s Stan Awtrey helps launch our coverage with this lovely piece about Bernhard Langer — who will play Augusta National for the final time in his four-decade career.

“I had my good times and my bad times around that place,” Langer said, “but many wonderful memories as a player, as a competitor, but also as a father and a friend. I’ve had family and friends come and support me for many years. It’s going to be a bittersweet moment.”

📈 Masters odds: Scottie Scheffler an overwhelming favorite

THE MADNESS RESUMES

Men’s Sweet 16 action doesn’t arrive at State Farm Arena until tomorrow. But sites in Newark and San Francisco bring us these four killer matchups tonight:

QUICK HITS

🏀 The Hawks visit the Heat tonight (7:30 p.m. on FanDuel Sports Southeast). They’ll be without Larry Nance Jr. (knee) for the rest of the regular season.

🏈 Jake Bobo and Harrison Faulkner, high school quarterbacks and the sons of Georgia and Georgia Tech’s offensive coordinators, respectively, made their college choices.

👑 High school basketball players of the year, all-state teams and all-metro teams are here. If you missed ‘em yesterday, check ‘em out.

👀 AJC Peachtree Road Race registration opens April 1. That’s next week!

ALSO INTERESTING

📺 Gary Danielson, longtime CBS college football analyst, says he’ll retire after the 2025 season. Who else will fans gripe about now?!

🤧 The “nose swipe” celebration popularized by Cowboys receiver CeeDee Lamb (and, in a different way, Atlanta rapper Young Thug) is now outlawed by the NFL.

🫢 Lakers star LeBron James ended a tumultuous day of beefing with Stephen A. Smith by tipping in a game-winner against the Pacers.

Thanks for reading to the very bottom of Sports Daily. Questions, comments, ideas? Contact me at tyler.estep@ajc.com.

Until next time.