The spreadsheets on Lucy Rushton’s Mac laptop would read like hieroglyphics to those not versed in analytics, but they will play a crucial role in the construction of Atlanta United’s first roster.
Rushton is the MLS expansion team’s head of video and technical analysis, a role that means she works with numbers, videos, theories and scouts on the ground, all in equal importance. The information they gather will assist president Darren Eales and technical director Carlos Bocanegra when they decide which players to sign and who may take the field for the inaugural 2017 season.
“Analytics will hopefully give us the edge for every roster spot we pick to make it the best we can,” Eales said.
Rushton is unique in MLS in several ways.
First, she may be the only female in this role in all of world soccer. Eales couldn’t think of another. Rushton said she thinks there’s another woman doing something similar in Dubai. Second, statistical analysis in MLS is a developing field, and Rushton brings more than seven years of experience working for Reading Football Club in her native England.
Rushton grew up in Reading, a suburb of London, where she followed the local team. Americans may know it as the former club of U.S. national-team members Bobby Convey and Marcus Hahnemann. Her light blue eyes light up when discussing that team, which reached promotion to the Premier League before being relegated a few years later.
After she completed a master’s degree in sports-performance analysis at the University of Wales and a dissertation at the University of Reading based on a notational analysis of soccer matches, she began to work for Reading, where she assisted a line of managers (Brendan Rodgers, Brian McDermott, Nigel Adkins, etc.) with different personalities and styles for seven years, something that impressed Eales. As she grew in experience and managers’ tastes changed, she began to migrate from first-team analysis into using her talent and knowledge in scouting.
“I also felt that statistical analysis could have its greatest influence and impact at the player recruitment level,” she wrote in an email.
Rushton will oversee both types of analysis with Atlanta United: the scouting of potential Atlanta United players and their performances after they sign.
She knew “a fair bit” about MLS because of its growing presence on TV in England, partially because of the influx of former Premier League players. She said also had a greater interest because of her position as a player recruitment analyst.
“I’ve studied many foreign leagues in search for players,” she wrote.
She had never met Eales before her interview. She also didn’t know much about Atlanta. With the same curiosity she brings to breaking down players, she began to research the city.
“I saw an up-and-coming city with a passion for sport, an interesting history and an exciting future,” she wrote.
Because there is no team as of yet, Rushton will spend most of her time helping to scout players and setting up the technology.
The scouting is done through a variety of subscription-based services to data and video. The formulas she uses will be tweaked according to the league she is scouting because she wrote that to understand these differences is paramount.
“What may be a successful player in one league may not be the same in another,” she wrote. “And as a result the type of player that we are looking for may be different to what teams in other countries have to offer. It is always important to acknowledge the differences between leagues when analyzing the statistics of a player, or when comparing the statistics of several players from multiple leagues.”
The formulas also can be tweaked for the position. She is developing a system that permits the coach/manager to determine exactly what they want to use for any given position. There are weights assigned to certain parameters for each position that can affect a player’s overall score. For example: goalkeepers can be analyzed on shot-to-save ratios; centerbacks on defensive duels and tackle success rates, center forwards on shooting accuracies and goal contribution. The formulas can also be changed based upon the player’s style and preferences.
But eyes are as important as numbers, something Rushton stressed. Players can’t be signed simply because they have good numbers. It should be used to complement what is seen.
“A good balance of the two ultimately helps to generate the full picture and serves to help reduce the risk of making a wrong signing,” she wrote. “In the early stages of the process, however, data can be used to provide some direction to scouting, and/or to highlight some potential targets who may have otherwise gone under the radar.”
If a scout comes across a player who is having a very good game, Rushton can call up video of that player and, using the software, isolate certain types of plays. For example, if a center midfielder is being scouted and he seems to have talent as a passer but doesn’t have a lot of assists, she can analyze why: Are the passes too deep? Too fast? Are the forwards not in the right position to run onto the pass? Is the defense getting consistently lucky?
That information can be shared with scouts and others in the front office as they look to paint a complete picture of the player.
It can work the other way, too. She can find a player through her research, and the scouts can go out and start to investigate.
Once the players are signed, she will use her knowledge and talents to help the team learn about their opponents. There will be a room at Mercedes-Benz Stadium where players can review video and data of their opponents. Where does the striker like to put his penalty kicks, for example.
Rushton will have the responsibility of making sure the team has the right equipment at the training ground to film and notate matches and sessions, and pre- and post-match analysis for all levels of the team, from the academy through the Sunday games on ESPN.
She wants Atlanta United to be at the forefront in the United States in all of their processes.
“I know there are a lot of very talented analysts working in clubs throughout MLS, and I want to help take analysis to the next level with them,” she wrote.
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