Falcons aren’t good, but good enough for playoff hunt in NFC

Football Outsiders said the Falcons are the worst 4-6 of all time, per its opponent- and situation-adjusted efficiency metric. But the Falcons are 4-6. That record puts them squarely in the race for one of the NFC’s three wild-card berths with seven games to go.

The Falcons are at the bottom of the NFC South standings, but only one game behind the Saints for the NFC’s final bid. They simultaneously are one of the NFL’s worst teams and a fringe playoff contender in the NFC. As Falcons coach Arthur Smith put it a day after the 25-0 loss to New England:

“We clearly have not played well enough the last two weeks, but it’s not like it’s all lost.”

How’s that for an inspiring rallying cry? It’s heard across the NFL in most seasons. It’s coming from a lot of cities this season.

There are maybe five legitimately good teams and up to six truly terrible teams. Then there’s a bunch of teams grouped somewhere in the middle. They are hoping that some breaks to go their way so they can slip into the playoffs.

The Falcons are nowhere close to being part of the good group. It’s more likely they are one of the bad teams. But the Falcons can always get better. And the state of the NFC means that improving to just OK can be enough for the Falcons to challenge for a playoff spot.

That’s why Smith was right to say that not all is lost for the Falcons. That was before the Saints and Panthers both lost over the weekend to help the Falcons’ chances. The Falcons won’t catch the Buccaneers (7-3) in the NFC South. The Falcons can stay in the wild-card race by beating the Jags.

Then the Falcons will get a chance to make up ground by beating three NFC teams currently ahead of them: Carolina, San Francisco and New Orleans. The Falcons already beat the Saints. They lost to Carolina at home by six points. San Francisco is surging now, but has lost four times at home.

I can’t blame anyone who doesn’t want to bother believing in these Falcons. The losses to the Cowboys and Patriots were bad enough to clear the modest bandwagon that had formed after the Falcons beat New Orleans to get to 4-4. Incremental gains by the defense haven’t mattered because Smith’s offense has been incompetent.

The Falcons haven’t scored a touchdown over their past 25 possessions (not including end of half) with 10 three-and-out drives and seven turnovers. They’ve totaled three points and seven turnovers in their past two games. Two players who can help the offense are out, and it’s not clear when Calvin Ridley (personal) will return.

For those Falcons supporters still inclined to hope for the best, there’s a real chance that the Falcons’ playoff chances will look better after this weekend.

As of Tuesday afternoon, the Falcons are getting even odds to win at Jacksonville on Sunday. The Jaguars (2-8) are awful, though they notably have a slightly better point differential (-101) than the Falcons. An effective running game has saved Urban Meyer’s offense from being as bad as Smith’s group. But running back James Robinson (knee/heel) is playing hurt, and run defense is one area in which the Falcons have been OK.

All the other NFC wild-card contenders are playing games this week that are expect to be tight.

The Saints are 4½-point underdogs against the Bills at home on Thursday night. The four teams between the Falcons and the Saints in the NFC pecking order are slight favorites to win this week. It’s plausible that the Falcons win while the Saints, Eagles, WFT, Panthers and 49ers all lose.

In that scenario the Falcons would have the same record as the Saints and 49ers and a better mark than the Panthers, Eagles and WFT. As mentioned, the Falcons still get a shot at the Saints, 49ers and Panthers.

The closing schedule once looked like it would be too much for the Falcons. The tougher slate began with the victory at New Orleans. Then came the big losses to Dallas and New England. The Falcons still have games remaining against the Buccaneers here and at the Bills and 49ers.

But the combined winning percentage of the Falcons’ remaining opponents (.430) is tied for third-lowest in the league. The Jaguars and Lions are bad. Can the street free-agent version of Cam Newton really make that much of a difference for Carolina? The Bills just lost at home to the Colts two weeks after they lost at Jacksonville. Any given Sunday, as they say.

All of that suggests the Falcons really are in the hunt for a playoff spot. You know all the reasons to believe it’s just an illusion. Most of all, it’s hard to take the Falcons seriously when they struggle to score points or even move the ball effectively.

Improved health could help with that. Patterson was a game-time decision last week, so he presumably will return soon.

Credit: AP

Credit: AP

He’s the best option to help the Falcons stay in doable down-and-distance situations. The Falcons could desperately use Matt Gono (undisclosed injury) along the offensive line. Matt Ryan still can make plays when protected in the pocket.

The Falcons as playoff contenders in Week 12 is one outcome of a league that engineers parity. I liked the NFL better when the franchises willing to spend on player talent could accumulate more of it. The league’s booming popularity during the salary-cap era is evidence that my view is not widely shared.

Gambling is the No. 1 reason why the NFL‘s popularity endures as audiences are fragmented by virtually unlimited entertainment options. A close second: fan bases of nearly every bad-to-middling team believe their guys can get hot and make the postseason. This year that list includes the Falcons.

The Falcons have only occasionally appeared to be a good team. That’s enough for them to be in contention for a playoff spot with seven games to play.