Deshaun Watson, a superb NFL quarterback and pride of Gainesville High, reportedly wants out of Houston. Justin Fields, the Ohio State star from Kennesaw, is one of the top QB prospects in the NFL draft. Both players are mobile quarterbacks suited for the modern game.
Matt Ryan is the best player in Falcons franchise history, but heâs a throwback QB, not the future. Ryan, 35, is in the twilight of his career. The Falcons have a new coach and front office after three consecutive losing seasons.
These circumstances have inspired Falcons supporters to dream about the possibility of Watson or Fields returning home to play. Trade Ryan for Watson or draft Fields with the No. 4 overall pick. Build around them and win big.
The Falcons may get their chance to draft Fields. General manager Terry Fontenot would be under tremendous external pressure to pick Fields if heâs available. More on that later. First, please forgive me for throwing water on the idea of the Falcons trading for Watson.
Itâs going to take a historic trade package to acquire Watson. Heâs 25 years old and no worse than the fifth-best player at the most important position. At least half the leagueâs teams are seeking a new QB. Some of them, such as the Dolphins and Jets, can offer a young QB in addition to picks. The Falcons canât do that.
And thatâs not even the main reason why one shouldnât spend too much time thinking about how the Falcons can get Watson. They canât make the trade anytime soon without devastating their salary cap. The reason: âdead money,â or salary-cap space dedicated to a player no longer on the roster.
If the Falcons were to trade Ryan before June 1, theyâd take a $44.4 million dead-money hit. That figure is way too much even if the cap were increasing. Itâs especially prohibitive with the cap expected to decrease because of lower revenues during the pandemic season.
If Ryan were to be traded after June 1, the dead-money hit for the Falcons would be $17.9 million in both 2021 and 2022 and $8.6 million in 2022. Thatâs more feasible than taking the $44.4 million hit all at once. It also means the cap pain lasts longer.
Letâs say the Falcons are willing to take the dead-money hit, and the Texans for some reason are willing to wait until after June 1 to trade their disgruntled quarterback. Would Watson, who has a no-trade clause in his contract, want to join a team with a tight cap even if itâs in his home state? The Falcons also would have to part with draft picks to make the trade, further limiting their team-building options.
With Watson, the Falcons would have a better quarterback on a thin roster. If the Falcons want to move on from Ryan, itâs more feasible to do so after next season and draft his successor with the fourth pick. Thereâs a realistic scenario in which Fields will be available.
The expert consensus seems to be that the top player in the draft is Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The QBs behind him, in some order, are Ohio Stateâs Fields, BYUâs Zach Wilson, North Dakota Stateâs Trey Lance and Alabamaâs Mac Jones.
The Jaguars will take Lawrence at No. 1. If the Jets donât acquire Watson, they may stick with fourth-year QB Sam Darnold. The Dolphins probably wonât select a QB at No. 3 if they still have Tua Tagovailoa, the No. 5 pick in the last draft. Itâs plausible that either the Jets and Dolphins wonât draft a QB or trade their pick, in which case Fields could still be on the board when the Falcons get their turn.
Fontenot, like every NFL GM, said he believes in drafting the best player available regardless of team needs. If Fields is on the board and Fontenot believes heâs the guy, then great. If Fields is there and Fontenot decides heâs not the guy then, whew boy, heâd better be right.
Thereâs obvious appeal to Fields or another top prospect as Falcons QB-in-waiting. He could be eased into the NFL instead of taking his lumps on a talent-deficient team. Itâs hard to look at history and make a definitive statement about whether thatâs the right way to break in a QB. There are too many variables to consider with each situation.
There also isnât much data because itâs rare that a QB selected near the top of the draft isnât immediately the starter. Finances play a big part in that.
Whatâs made drafted players especially valuable since 2011 is that their salaries are limited by the collective bargaining agreement. The No. 4 pick this year will get a four-year guaranteed contract for about $33 million, well below what he could get on the open market. The sooner a drafted QB can become a good NFL starter, the longer the team can employ him on a bargain deal.
Fewer games played also means the drafted QBâs team will have less information to go on when itâs time to decide whether to pick up the fifth-year option after Year 3. Every game that a team leaves a top QB prospect on the bench is a missed chance for development and to get maximum value from the rookie contract. Market pressures are layered on top of fan expectations that the young QB get on the field soon.
Quarterback Jordan Love didnât play a snap for the Packers in 2020 after they selected him with the No. 26 pick in the draft. Thatâs probably easier for the Packers to accept when they are paying him $12.3 million for four years. It also means they donât yet know his true ability to eventually replace Aaron Rodgers.
Three legendary NFL quarterbacks began their careers on the bench: Rodgers, Tom Brady and Drew Brees. Two recent draftees, Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts, had to wait their turns. But Tagovailoa is the only one of those players to be drafted near the top half of the draft. Rodgers was picked near the bottom of the first round, Brees and Hurts went in the second round and Brady famously lasted until the sixth.
Tagovailoa had hip surgery in December 2019. He was healthy to begin this season but didnât play until Week 6. Tagovailoaâs rough rookie season included getting pulled twice from games for ineffectiveness, but he had only 290 pass attempts over 10 games. The Dolphins likely will keep building with Tagovailoa if they canât include him as part of a trade for Watson.
Watson isnât a realistic option for the Falcons. They committed to Ryan long-term by extending his contract in 2018 and restructuring last year to clear cap space. Ryan had a good finish to 2020, and chances are heâll begin his 14th Falcons season as the starter. Itâs realistic to believe Fields will be their No. 2 quarterback.
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