Derek Carr is a good quarterback who just had a down year for the Raiders. He turns 32 next month. That’s the back end of the prime years for all but the best quarterbacks. Carr has never been at that level. It’s possible he no longer can be even pretty good.
Despite his limitations, Carr will be one of the most coveted quarterbacks on the free-agent market. That speaks to the lack of good QB options in the NFL and the rarity of even decent veteran QBs becoming available.
If Carr ends up signing with an NFC South team, he’ll instantly become the best QB in the division. That tells you about the state of the South.
NFL Media reported that Carr recently met with New Orleans. The Raiders were hoping to trade him there. Carr, who has a no-trade clause in his contract, told the Raiders he wouldn’t accept a deal to the Saints or any team. The Raiders released Carr before the Tuesday deadline so they won’t owe him $40.4 million.
The Falcons can pursue Carr should they choose. They’ve got a lot of salary-cap space and an inexperienced incumbent, Desmond Ridder. If the Falcons don’t sign Carr, they could end up facing him twice in 2023. The Saints hoped to acquire Carr before he made it to market. Now they’ll join the bidding with the Panthers. Maybe the Bucs will pitch Carr on replacing Tom Brady.
The fact that Carr could change the balance of power in the South is why I believe the Falcons shouldn’t go into 2023 with Ridder as the clear QB1. Now that Brady is retired, a great QB isn’t needed to win this division (and Brady wasn’t so great in 2022).
Really, should Carr sign with a South team he would be one of the best quarterbacks in the entire NFC. Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts is great but, with Brady and Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers scuffling, the QBs in the rest of the conference lag well behind the AFC’s best.
Ridder is a good QB prospect who got some real playing time as a rookie. That means the Falcons aren’t as needy at QB as the South’s other teams. They aren’t set, though. Ridder beat expectations while starting the last four games of 2022. He’ll need to clear a much higher bar to take the Falcons to the playoffs as the starter over 17 games.
Maybe Ridder can do it. The Falcons can reduce the uncertainly by adding a proven, starting-quality QB or a better prospect. The Falcons own the No. 8 overall pick in the April draft. That’s too late to get one of the top three QB prospects. The Panthers, picking ninth, must think the same thing because they are pursuing Carr.
The South team that signs Carr or another top free-agent quarterbacks will gain an advantage. It doesn’t have to be Carr. Some other starter-level QBs will be available as free agents next month.
Geno Smith and Jimmy Garoppolo are the top options. Carr is on the next tier . I’m not including former league MVP Lamar Jackson because there’s little chance that he makes it to the market. The Ravens have the leverage over Jackson because of the franchise tag.
The Raiders are moving on from Carr after first-year coach Josh McDaniels benched him for the final two games of 2022 to get a better look at backup Jarrett Stidham. That sealed Carr’s exit from the Raiders. Over nine seasons as Raiders starter Carr played in just one playoff game, a 2021 wild-card loss to the Bengals.
The Raiders had a lot of bad coaches and organizational drama during that time. Carr wasn’t good enough to lift them above the dysfunction. He made last month’s Pro Bowl as an injury replacement but Carr’s play in 2022 and 2021 was below his career standards. Escaping the Raiders might revitalize his game.
At the Pro Bowl earlier this month, KTNV-TC of Las Vegas asked Carr what he’s looking for with his next team.
“I just want to win,” Carr said. “I’ve thrown for the yards. I have the records. I’ve done the Pro Bowls.”
Every player says it’s about winning, not the money. Only a few of them can get both. Rodgers will be one of them should he request a trade. Carr probably can’t be so picky. Per NFL Media, the Titans and Jets will join the Saints and Panthers in pursuit of Carr. None of those teams made the playoffs in 2022.
The Saints probably have the most talent among those teams. That’s assuming they pull off their usual salary-cap manipulations. They Saints will have to clear a lot of cap room to both sign an expensive quarterback and retain their top veteran players. We keep hearing that New Orleans will pay the price for pushing cap pain into the future, but it hasn’t happened yet.
According to the experts at Spotrac, Carr’s market value is $113.4 million over three years for an average salary of $37.8 million. But “average salary” doesn’t mean much in the NFL. Only a few players have real security. Carr signed a three-year, $121.5 million salary with the Raiders before last season for an average salary of $40.5 million. He’s on his way out after collecting just $25 million.
The benefits for Carr in signing that deal were the up-front money, the no-trade clause and an early guarantee date for his 2023 salary. Now he’s on the market before the other free agent QBs. Carr’s next team might be able to sign him to a similar deal as the Raiders. Pay him a sizeable signing bonus and salary in the first year with an out before the second year that wouldn’t damage the cap.
If the Saints or Panthers sign Carr, they’ll gain an edge over their NFC South rivals. He’s not great but a good quarterback can be the best in the division.
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