Before their Sunday game was rained out, the Braves activated catcher Sean Murphy from the injured list. Surprisingly, veteran Chadwick Tromp was the odd catcher out instead of rookie Drake Baldwin. It was a pleasant surprise, in my view.
The Braves have flourished with strong offensive catching tandems over the past three seasons. Baldwin has a better chance than Tromp of forming one with Murphy. The Braves need all the good bats they can get, and Baldwin has shown he has one.
On the surface, Baldwin’s production during the first two weeks doesn’t justify him staying with the big-league club. He’s hitting .154 (4-for-26) with one extra-base hit (a double) and a .241 on-base percentage. However, as is often the case this early in the year, those numbers don’t tell the whole story. Baldwin has hit the heck out of the ball but hasn’t yet been rewarded for it.
After the weekend games, Baldwin ranks among the top 15% of big-league hitters in hard-hit percentage, average exit velocity and bat speed. He’s not striking out much (five in 29 plate appearances), and he’s making frequent contact when he does swing at pitches outside of the zone. That all tracks with the profile Baldwin developed in the minor leagues before becoming one of MLB’s top prospects this year.
Baldwin has just been unlucky with his results. Per FanGraphs, there’s a huge gap between his Weighted On-Base Average (.207) and his expected wOBA (.360) based on the exit velocity and launch angle of his batted balls. Those numbers will converge if Baldwin keeps making good contact. There’s a lot much better chance of that happening than getting much pop from Tromp.
The argument for sending Baldwin back to Triple-A Gwinnett is that he would get more playing time. But I think he’ll end up getting plenty of reps with the big-league club. Look at the 2022 Braves for the blueprint. That season, veteran catcher Travis d’Arnaud had 396 plate appearances and prospect William Contreras had 376.
The Braves planned for Murphy to handle a heavy workload that season. That was more because of circumstance than true desire. The Braves let d’Arnaud walk rather than pick up his $8 million contact option. They didn’t sign a proven replacement. Those decisions left them with little choice but to lean heavily on Murphy, an elite defensive catcher who struggled to hit when he returned from injury last season.
Baldwin got an opportunity after Murphy suffered a cracked rib when hit by a pitch during a spring training game. Baldwin has made the most of his chance by doing the only things he can control, making frequent and hard contact with the ball. The Braves need him in Atlanta.
Hawks need bigger big man
Onyeka Okongwu has become a pretty good big man for the Hawks in his fifth NBA season. He’s averaging a career high in points (13) with very good efficiency and rebounding at a career-high rate. Okongwu gets the most out of his athleticism and length. I like watching him play.
But there is nothing Okongwu can do to change his height (listed at 6-foot-10, but I’m skeptical) and length (wingspan measured at 7-2 before he was drafted). Okongwu is best suited as an energy center off the bench for favorable matchups. He’s miscast as a starting center for the Hawks, and the lack of size in the middle is hurting them.
Per Cleaning the Glass, Hawks opponents have shot 3.1% better at the rim when Okongwu is on the court versus off it (garbage time excluded). Only six of 39 NBA centers who’ve played at least 1,500 minutes this season have a worse on/off difference on opponent shots at the rim. Defensive statistics can be noisy but, in Okongwu’s case, they match the eye test.
He’s often in good position. He challenges a lot of shots. But bigger big men (and athletic drivers) finish over Okongwu despite his best efforts. Anthony Davis did it on a game-winning shot Wednesday in Dallas. Karl-Anthony Towns did it while scoring 30 points in a victory at State Farm Arena on Saturday. Okongwu fared much better against Utah’s Kyle Filipowski in Sunday’s victory, but he’s a perimeter-oriented power forward who started at center because Walker Kessler was out.
The Hawks are projected to have significant space under the tax line this summer. There are some bigger big men among free agents who might be had for a reasonable price. There are some bigger big men among the draft prospects who should be available when the Hawks pick in the first round. After the weekend’s games, there was 97.6% chance that Sacramento’s pick will fall outside of the top 12 and thus convey to the Hawks.
Okongwu is a solid role player, but the Hawks need more size in the middle.
Another Atlanta United rerun
Much has been made of Atlanta United not scoring more goals or at least creating more quality chances. AJC beat writer Doug Roberson relayed the funny anecdote of one of the team’s young supporters urging them to take a shot late in Saturday’s 1-1 draw against Dallas at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Nobody tell that fan about ex-Atlanta United star Josef Martínez scoring a hat trick for San Jose on Sunday.
Still, Atlanta United’s offense hasn’t been that bad. The team has scored 11 goals in seven matches. Only seven of the 27 MLS teams that have played an equal number of matches scored more goals. You can take issue with Atlanta United only creating 12 expected goals given the $30 million then spent on attacking players, but that group should develop more chemistry with time.
Defensive letdowns have been a bigger problem for Atlanta United, with blown leads in four matches. Sloppy defending led to two goals for Montreal in the opener and two more against Charlotte in the second match. The trend has continued since. A giveaway by goalkeeper Brad Guzman contributed to Dallas’ goal on Sunday.
United eventually will score more goals. In the meantime, can it stop giving so many away?
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