Weekend Predictions is on a roll. I’ve posted winning records on picks against the spread in three of the past four weeks. Now I have some breathing room for the back half of the season. My confidence is so high that I only occasionally think about blowing it.
I was resigned to finishing with a losing record last week after a terrible performance on college football Saturday. Then I went 4-0 on my NFL picks. I backed the favorites in all those games. That created an existential crisis for me because of my love of underdogs and aversion to picking chalk.
I got my glory. But did I lose my soul?
Falcons (-5½) at Panthers
The Falcons are 3-2. I didn’t see that coming. I saw it happen, and it’s still hard to believe. The Falcons still don’t have a consistent pass rush or much of a running game. They needed lucky bounces for two of their wins. Yes, I’m trying to talk myself into taking the Panthers as home ‘dogs.
That’s a hard case to make. The Panthers beat the Raiders after quarterback Andy Dalton replaced Bryce Young as the starter. They’ve since come to look like a team quarterbacked by Andy Dalton. Carolina’s defense is bad, too. I’m taking the Falcons and giving the points.
Mississippi State (+34) at No. 5 Georgia
Kirby Smart has a long way to go to match Nick Saban’s record, but he’s already got the grumpy coach thing down. Smart’s complaints about a lack of energy from Georgia fans during the victory over Auburn on Saturday sounded like Saban’s gripes about Alabama supporters. Also Saban-like: Smart becoming annoyed because reporters asked questions about a story that he created.
This game could end up boring UGA fans. The visiting Bulldogs are so bad that first-year coach Jeff Lebby abandoned his up-tempo offense at Texas last week. But the approach kind of worked. MSU trailed by a point late in the first half before losing 35-13. I’m thinking a slower tempo and the inevitable emptying of UGA’s bench will allow Mississippi State to cover the spread.
Georgia Tech (-5½) at North Carolina
After Tech fired him as coach, Geoff Collins resurfaced as defensive coordinator at North Carolina. Collins told reporters this week that he’s been very self-reflective about how he could have done a better job at Tech and holds “zero ill will” toward school administrators or Jackets fans. Personal growth is good, but unfortunately for Collins, UNC’s defense isn’t.
Tech has been favored on the road only three times since Paul Johnson retired as coach following the 2018 season. The Jackets lost at Syracuse in 2020 and won at Duke in 2021 with Collins. Tech lost at Syracuse last month with his successor, Brent Key. I think the Jackets are giving too many points in this one. They’ll win, but UNC covers.
Old Dominion (+1½) at Georgia State
Georgia State beat Vanderbilt, which defeated then-No. 1 Alabama last weekend. The Panthers lost at home to Georgia Southern by three scores two weekends ago. I wish I knew what all that meant. I’m thinking Old Dominion could be worn out. This will be the fourth road game of six in total for the Monarchs, who’ve lost games to South Carolina and Virginia Tech. Panthers are the pick.
Other college games of interest
No. 1 Texas (-14) vs. No. 18 Oklahoma (Dallas)
Texas lost to Oklahoma on the way to the College Football Playoff last season. Longhorns coach Steve Sarkisian told reporters his team got some “valuable lessons” from that game. I’m guessing one of them is that losing to your arch-rival sullies an otherwise great season. Oklahoma has won 11 of the past 15 games against Texas. The Sooners are too banged up to keep this one close. Texas is the pick.
No. 2 Ohio State (-3) at No. 3 Oregon
Ex-Georgia assistant Dan Lanning has led Oregon to its highest ranking since Week 4 of the 2021 season. Winning this game would give the Ducks a big boost in the Big Ten race. “It’s the next game, which is why it’s the most important one,” Lanning told reporters. You can see Smart’s influence in the boring cliché. With John Harbaugh gone from Michigan, the Ducks can take UM’s place as the league foe that Ohio State coach Ryan Day can’t beat. I like Oregon as a strong home ‘dog.
South Carolina (+21) at No. 7 Alabama
I knew first-year coach Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer would take some heat for his team’s loss to Vanderbilt. I didn’t expect a “T-shirt controversy” to be part of the noise. It seems al.com’s Joe Goodman stirred things up by critiquing the “oddly fitting, untucked workout T-shirt” that DeBoer wears for his job on game days. I’ll pile on because this is one of the few times that sportswriters have room to critique how somebody else dresses. Bama covers.
Florida (+15½) at No. 8 Tennessee
The Volunteers lost at Arkansas last weekend. An offense that scored 44 points against N.C. State and 71 against Kent State tallied only 14 points against the Hogs. Tennessee blew an 11-point lead in the second half. Coach Josh Huepel botched the clock management at the end of the game. The Vols looked so bad that I briefly considered picking Florida before coming to my senses. Tennessee will cover.
No. 9 Ole Miss (-3½) at No. 13 LSU
Master troll Lane Kiffin hasn’t said anything about South Carolina coach Shame Beamer accusing Ole Miss of faking injuries last week. There’s so much material for Kiffin to work with. A coach with an 11-16 SEC record lost 27-3 at home and then alleged that the opponent cheated to slow his team’s offense. That Beamer was right isn’t the point here. I like Ole Miss to cover.
Other NFL game of interest
Buccaneers (+2½) at Saints
It’s a great time for Saints haters. The Saints have lost three games in a row. They blew a lead against the Eagles with one minute left in the game, gave the Falcons a touchdown on a muffed punt and never led at Kansas City last week. Coach Dennis Allen had to field questions about Chris Olave’s brother questioning Olave’s usage. Now rookie Spencer Rattler is starting in place of injured QB Derek Carr. That last thing is what pushes me to take the Bucs and the points.
Last week: 6-4. Season: 31-26-1.
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