It wasn’t the worst performance of the season for Weekend Predictions. It just felt that way as I sat at Mile High watching the Falcons flop against the Broncos after I backed them to win. I needed a perfect NFL Sunday to make up for another awful ledger picking college football games against the spread. The Falcons immediately let me know they would be no help.
That game wasn’t the difference because my other NFL picks were bad, too. It was only my third losing record in 12 weeks this season. But the losing weeks have been really bad while my winning weeks have been just OK. That leaves my season record one game above break-even as the schedule approaches December.
The Falcons are resting this week after putting in hard work to look so bad against the Saints and Broncos. No pick for Georgia Tech’s Thursday night game. At least that spares me the humiliation of being spectacularly wrong again on my Falcons and Tech picks.
Massachusetts (+42) at No. 10 Georgia
UMass fired coach Don Brown on Monday. Interim coach Shane Montgomery said in a news conference that the decision has created “uncertainty” among assistant coaches. They should have seen it coming. Few things are more certain than UMass firing its coach after losing a lot of games. Brown was 6-28. His predecessor, Walt Bell, was 2-23. Bell’s predecessor, Mark Whipple, was 16-44. Whipple’s predecessor, Charley Molnar, was 2-22.
Georgia has been favored by 42 points or more against an FBS opponent just once, per the OddsShark database (starting in 1990). The Bulldogs (-45) beat Kent State 39-22 on Sept. 24, 2022. Smart’s teams haven’t been good at covering huge spreads. UMass might be too much of a mess to keep the margin within seven touchdowns even with UGA emptying its bench. I’m still taking my shot with the big underdog.
Georgia State (+20) at Texas State
Texas State is coached by G.J. Kinney, who is from Mesquite, Texas. All of that just makes sense. Kinney has the Bobcats in contention to win the Sun Belt for the first time in their 12 years in the league. The Panthers have lost seven consecutive games and added quarterback Zach Gibson to the long list of injuries. I’m picking the Bobcats to cover.
Other college games of interest
No. 5 Indiana (+13½) at No. 2 Ohio State
Indiana had to throw more cash at Curt Cignetti to keep him from looking around at other programs. He’s a coach, so the people who believe money is ruining college football had nothing to say about that. It’s true that the Hoosiers have played a soft schedule. They also are 7-2 against the spread. The betting markets have underestimated the Hoosiers, but I’m not. Give me IU and the points.
No. 19 Army (+14½) at No. 6 Notre Dame
Army can do the nation a favor by knocking Notre Dame out of playoff contention. Truthfully, my heart wasn’t in that joke. The Fighting Irish aren’t nearly as unlikeable without Brian Kelly as coach. That might change if they lose this game and still make the playoff field. Army’s Cadets last won a national championship in 1946. The dream of another title ends here. Notre Dame is my pick.
No. 7 Alabama (-13½) at Oklahoma
During the SEC teleconference someone asked Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer about the game against Auburn next week. Surprisingly, DeBoer answered the question. I can picture the headlines saying the Crimson Tide overlooked Oklahoma should they lose this game. DeBoer is new to the SEC. He’s got a lot to learn to avoid serving up easy narratives. The Tide have burned me twice as big road favorites but redeemed themselves at LSU two weeks ago. I’m backing them again.
No. 9 Ole Miss (-10½) at Florida
On3.com reports that while praising Florida coach Billy Napier, Urban Meyer accused Florida State of quitting on the season. I can’t say for sure that Meyer quit on the NFL’s Jaguars. He was so bad at his job that it may have just looked that way. Meyer picked the Gators to cover the spread. It’s possible that my distaste for Meyer is leading me to unwisely pick Ole Miss. But I’d rather lose with a spite pick than root for the same side as that guy.
No. 14 BYU (+3) at No. 21 Arizona State
I just noticed that four of my previous six picks are favorites. That just doesn’t feel right to me, but neither does picking BYU after the Cougars fell on their faces against Kansas last weekend. So, I sought out some reassuring words from BYU coach Kalani Sitake. “From what I see from the boys today, and what I saw from after the game, I feel like they are in a really good spot right now,” Sitake said during his weekly news conference. Sounds good to me as a person who always is looking for a reason to back quality ‘dogs. BYU is my pick.
NFL games of interest
Buccaneers (-6) at Giants
Brad Johnson told WDAE radio he believes the Bucs can win a Super Bowl with quarterback Baker Mayfield. Johnson should know. He was there when Tampa Bay’s defense and running backs won the 2003 Super Bowl. The Giants finally benched draft bust QB Daniel Jones. Drew Lock told media he doesn’t get why he was passed over for Tommy DeVito when the Giants signed Lock to be the No. 2 QB. Did they remind him he plays for the Giants? Bucs are my pick.
Chiefs (-11) at Panthers
The Chiefs are 9-1, but they’ve been lucky more often than great this season: five other teams have better point differentials. Patrick Mahomes is throwing too many interceptions and taking too many sacks. The Panthers are showing signs of being normal bad instead of historically bad. They’ve won two straight games and will cover the spread in this one.
Ravens (-3) at Chargers
The Falcons never got a second interview with Jim Harbaugh, who decided to coach QB Justin Herbert in L.A. That was too bad for the Falcons. Harbaugh already is showing signs of winning big for the Chargers, like he won big for the 49ers, before he won big at Michigan. Not even cyborg Nick Saban could pull off the college/NFL double like mad scientist Harbaugh. I like the Chargers as home ‘dogs against inconsistent Baltimore.
Last week: 3-7. Season: 59-58-1.
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