Now is a good time to remind readers that Weekend Predictions makes no guarantee or representation regarding the quality of these picks. Use them at your own risk and for entertainment purposes only. Better yet, fade the picks and reap the rewards.
I’m having a crisis of confidence after posting a losing record in two consecutive seasons after three winning years in a row. My overall record on picks against the spread is 560-493-26 (.532). Beating the sportsbooks requires being right on roughly 52% of picks ATS, so I’m still above water. Also, my record is much better than Falcons over the same period, and I’m not propped up by a system designed to ensure I can’t fail for long.
If you think citing the Falcons to make myself look better in comparison is rock bottom then, honestly, you may be right. But it’s also motivation. I have to make better picks so I don’t end up like the Falcons, who must cite the Jets to make themselves look better.
No. 14 Clemson (+13.5) vs. No. 1 Georgia (Mercedes-Benz Stadium)
Clemson coach Dabo Swinney has said that “one of the best lessons I’ve learned is that you don’t worry about criticism from people that you wouldn’t seek advice from.” Surely, at least one of Swinney’s trusted advisors has told him that he should sign players from the transfer portal. If not, then it’s an example of the obvious hole in Swinney’s philosophy. It only works if you are seeking advice from the right people.
Clemson is 20-7 since the NCAA loosened the transfer rules for football players. I’m not saying the only reason for that is Swinney has signed only two transfer players in three years, but I’m also not not saying that. Georgia coach Kirby Smart said he’s “envious” of Swinney’s approach because it’s good for program culture. Smart might do the same if not for his desire to win national championships. Georgia is the pick.
Georgia State (+19.5) at Georgia Tech
The Yellow Jackets earned a good victory over No. 10 Florida State in Ireland. Can they avoid ruining the good vibes? The weirdest thing about Brent Key’s tenure as Tech coach is that his team is 9-5 as underdogs and 1-4 as favorites. The worst of the losses was last season’s 38-27 loss to Bowling Green, which was a three-touchdown ‘dog at Bobby Dodd Stadium.
New Panthers coach Dell McGee is being coy about who will be his starting quarterback. Subterfuge likely isn’t necessary. For one thing, Tech probably is confused about who’s on GSU’s roster after the massive turnover. Also, everybody knows the QB should be Tech transfer Zach Gibson. He’s good enough to give the Jackets some trouble, but Tech will cover.
Other college football games of interest
Western Kentucky (+31.5) at No. 5 Alabama
Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer inherits one of Nick Saban’s lasting legacies, inflated point spreads. According to the OddsShark database, the Crimson Tide were favored by 31 points or more in 30 home games from 2015-23. They were 16-14 ATS in those games, but 10-3 since the start of the 2019 season. I’ve been on the wrong side of too many of those games. But I will continue my tradition of picking against Bama because I just can’t resist taking all those points. Maybe I’m getting advice from the wrong people, too.
No. 7 Notre Dame (+3) at No. 20 Texas A&M
Did you know there is a U.S. Merchant Marine Academy and that it fields a football team? I learned this from reading Mike Elko’s bio, which notes he was defensive coordinator for the Division III Merchant Marine Mariners (yes, really) in 2001. Another little-known fact is that Elko is the Texas A&M head football coach. Elko may be relatively anonymous, but he did well at Duke after the program had suffered from David Cutcliffe staying too long. I’m still backing the Fighting Irish to cover.
No. 8 Penn State (-8) at West Virginia
There’s renewed optimism in Happy Valley because even James Franklin should be able to get Penn State into a 12-team playoff. Franklin’s Nittany Lions have started the season ranked in the top 10 four other times and finished there only once (No. 8 in 2017). I don’t trust the Mountaineers to score enough points, so PSU is the pick.
Boston College (+16.5) at No. 10 Florida State
FSU coach Mike Norvell told reporters that the outcome of the Tech game might have been different if just one play among a handful had a different result. I agree. The Seminoles would have gotten blown out without so much good luck. A Tech penalty bailed them out on third-and-15 before a 59-yard field goal and FSU converted two fourth-and-long plays during a game-tying TD drive. I’m picking the Noles to cover against BC based on the theory that Tech is legit and so that loss wasn’t so bad.
No. 23 USC (+4) vs. No. 13 LSU (Las Vegas)
CBS Sports notes that LSU coach Brian Kelly has won 10 games or more for a nation-high seven consecutive seasons. CBS Sports doesn’t note that one of those seasons is 2020. The pandemic made it hard for teams to even play 10 games that year. Maybe 10 wins and losses in the College Football Playoff were fine at Notre Dame, but they are expecting more in Baton Rouge. Kelly lost big games to begin each of his first two seasons at LSU, but this time he wins and covers.
No. 19 Miami (-2.5) at Florida
I’m aware of the current state of Florida football, but there still are only a few teams in the nation that should be favored as visitors at The Swamp. None of them are coached by Mario Cristobal. There are lots of reasons to doubt Gators coach Billy Napier in Gainesville, but can anybody trust Cristobal after he blew that game against Georgia Tech? I’m taking the Gators and the points.
Last season: 48-53-4.
All-time (five seasons): 560-493-26
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