Weekend Predictions: Georgia becomes SEC champ, Falcons lose in Minnesota

Falcons (+5½) at Vikings

Kirk Cousins’ triumphant return to Minnesota has turned into an underdog story. Days after Cousins stunk up Mercedes-Benz Stadium with a career-worst performance, he reminded everyone of his history of succeeding after being counted out. Vikings fans probably appreciate that story more now that the team is averaging nearly as many points scored as it did during Cousins’ best season, with a quarterback who’s making 1/10th his salary.

There is no way that Cousins will be as bad against the Vikings (10-2) as he was against the Chargers. But Cousins also wasn’t sharp in the two games before that. His interceptions all have the same flavor: late decisions, weak throws. Minnesota’s pass protection is shaky, so the Falcons (6-6) will have a chance to win this game if Cousins is competent. I’m not counting him out, but I’m also not picking the Falcons to win straight up. I’ll back them with the points.

SEC Championship game: No. 5 Georgia (+2½) vs. No. 2 Texas (Mercedes-Benz Stadium)

For me, this game comes to one question. Which coach would I rather see whine about belonging in the College Football Playoff after a loss? Kirby Smart has been warming up to it for weeks. But it also could be fun to see Texas coach Steve Sarkisian lobby the selection committee when everybody knows a two-loss SEC team is a shoo-in. The expansion of the playoff from four to 12 teams has not ended the tradition of SEC football coaches pretending to be victims of an unfair system.

The Longhorns lost to Georgia, the best team they faced all season. Smart understandably has downplayed that game, but the Bulldogs bullied the Longhorns on their field. When Texas tried to come back, Georgia executed a long touchdown drive and clamped down on defense. I don’t see how this game goes much differently when Georgia has a quasi-home game. The Bulldogs will win straight up.

Other conference championship games of interest

Big Ten: No. 3 Penn State (+3½) vs. No. 1 Oregon (Indianapolis)

The headline at On3.com declares: “With another National Signing Day masterpiece, Dan Lanning is turning Oregon into Georgia.” I think ex-UGA assistant Lanning must win big with those players before he can be placed on the same level as his old boss. The undefeated Ducks will be in the playoff no matter the outcome of this game. That means there’s more pressure on Penn State coach James Franklin, who doesn’t handle these situations well. I’m taking Oregon and giving the points.

ACC: No. 17 Clemson (+2½) vs. No. 8 SMU (Charlotte, North Carolina)

I’ve never been one to believe you’ve got to hand it to Dabo Swinney, but he deserves credit. He has his Clemson tram in position to overcome the obstacle of his stubborn refusal to recruit from the transfer portal and make the playoff. Fans who complain about the influence of money (for players, not coaches) in college football can root for the Tigers, who now are losing high school recruits because of Swinney’s stubborn refusal to embrace NIL. SMU is my pick.

Mountain West: No. 20 Nevada-Las Vega (+4) at No. 10 Boise State

UNLV coach Barry Odom has managed to win in a college football wasteland. He’s making about $1 million this season before bonuses. That’s about the same salary as Georgia defensive line coach Tray Scott. It’s weird that Nick Saban warned about the supposed “competitive imbalance” created by NIL while having nothing to say about coaches’ salaries. The Runnin’ Rebels will cover.

Big 12: No. 16 Iowa State (+2) vs. No. 15 Arizona State (Arlington, Texas)

SEC coaches miffed about their rankings should talk to Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark. His league’s title game features two teams ranked below Mountain West-leader Boise State. “The (selection) committee continues to show time and time again that they are paying attention to logos versus résumés,” Yormark told media. That sounds like a tacit admission that Boise State has a stronger brand than the two best teams in the Big 12. I’m taking Iowa State and the points.

Other NFL games of interest

Raiders (+6½) at Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield told reporters this week that the Bucs “control our own destiny” for the playoffs. That’s not true. The Falcons hold the tiebreaker over the Bucs (6-6) based on head-to-head results, so Tampa Bay needs the Falcons to lose at least once more than the Bucs do. Mayfield apparently is among the many people who believe the Falcons are going to blow this thing. Tampa Bay is the pick.

Panthers (+12½) at Eagles

Former No. 1 draft pick Bryce Young looked like a bust when the Panthers benched him after two terrible games this season. Now he’s playing better than Cousins. Young has three touchdown passes and a rushing score with no interceptions over his past three games. The Panthers beat the Giants and lost to the Chiefs and Bucs on walk-off field goals. I got off the Carolina bandwagon last week. I’m getting back on it. Panthers are the pick.

Saints (-4½) at Giants

The New York Post said Saints running back Alvin Kamara will be a big test for the Giants’ injury-depleted defensive line. I figured it must be an old article, but it turns out it’s from this week. Kamara isn’t what he once was, but New York’s run defense is terrible. I don’t trust the Saints to cover as road favorites, but I’ve also watched the Giants play. I suppose it’s better to side with the Saints.

Seahawks (+2½) at Cardinals

There’s an outside shot that the runner-up in the NFC South race will earn a wild-card spot (the word “earn” is used loosely here). A loss by the Cardinals (6-6) would increase those chances. Arizona and Tampa Bay are two games behind idle Washington (8-5) in the wild-card race. The Cardinals nearly won at Minnesota last weekend, and their defense has been playing better for more than a month. I like Arizona to cover.

Last week: 7-3. Season: 70-67-1.