Weekend Predictions appreciates the Falcons. If I’m experiencing self-doubt about my ability to pick games against the spread, I look at their ability to pick a quarterback and feel better about myself. I’ve posted losing records in three of the past four weeks, but I can never mess up as badly as the Falcons.
My season record is only one game above break-even, with the end in sight. It’s possible I’ll finish with a losing record for a third consecutive year. I still rest easy with the knowledge that, thanks to the Falcons, my decisions can’t possibly be the worst ones published in these pages.
Giants (+8½) at Falcons
Kirk Cousins couldn’t save the Falcons. Eventually coach Raheem Morris had to save the team’s offense from Cousins. Play-caller Zac Robinson was handcuffed by Cousins’ lack of mobility and declining confidence. Michael Penix Jr. at least can move well enough to scramble, roll out of the pocket and make handoffs on stretch runs to the outside. No NFL experience is needed for those tasks.
The betting markets seem to view the Falcons the same after the QB change. Per Vegas Insider, the consensus point spread was Falcons minus-8½ before the announcement. There was a brief line move to minus-9 after the news, then it was back to minus-8½ by Wednesday morning. I think the QB change makes the Falcons better, but it’s hard to count on a rookie making his starting debut to cover a spread that big even if the Giants are awful. Falcons win and New York covers.
College football games of interest
College Football Playoff first round: No. 12 Clemson (+12) at No. 5 Texas
Clemson coach Dabo Swinney has pulled off his most impressive feat yet. He’s managed to position his program as both plucky underdog and underappreciated college football power. That illusion ends this week. Clemson’s offense has looked good when facing lesser foes. The Tigers are up against an elite defense in this game. I doubt they can score enough points to keep up. Texas is my pick.
CFP first round: No. 11 SMU (+8½) at No. 6 Penn State
I can’t decide if the expansion of the CFP field is good for Penn State coach James Franklin. On the one hand, it meant he could suffer inevitable losses in big games and still make the playoff. That’s how it played out this season. Franklin is 3-19 vs. top-10 opponents after losing to Ohio State and Oregon. But CFP expansion also means Franklin gets another opportunity to lose a big game on an even bigger stage. I’m taking SMU and the points.
CFP first round: No. 10 Indiana (+7½) at No. 7 Notre Dame
We’ll know Hoosiers football really is big-time when fans start bringing up coach Curt Cignetti’s new, $8 million salary (third highest in the Big Ten) after losses. I figured Fighting Irish supporters are over the loss to Northern Illinois now that their team is in the playoff. Then Inside ND Sports was there to remind me that Freeman’s teams “have suffered some embarrassing losses to teams who shouldn’t beat Notre Dame.” I’m sure the Hoosiers are still on that list. Indiana is my pick to cover.
CFP first round: No. 9 Tennessee (+7) at No. 8 Ohio State
Tennessee coach Josh Heupel is starting to give off James Franklin vibes. His Volunteers do well at home against every foe except Georgia, but they’ve suffered seven road losses over the past three seasons. Only one of those defeats was by a margin of less than two touchdowns (at Arkansas this year). The only thing giving me pause about backing the Buckeyes is their ugly loss to Michigan in the Big Ten title game. I’m writing that off to coach Ryan Day’s offense suddenly becoming inept whenever Michigan is the opponent. The Buckeyes will cover.
Gasparilla Bowl (Tampa): Tulane (+13½) vs. Florida
“Sun Belt Billy” is a great nickname because it perfectly captures the bitterness of SEC fans who are stuck with coaches they don’t like. Florida’s Billy Napier may end up with the last laugh. His team’s four-game win streak includes victories over LSU and Ole Miss. Napier signed another good recruiting class once athletic director Scott Stricklin announced Napier would be back in 2025. Napier won’t mess up the goodwill by losing this game, but Tulane will cover.
Other NFL games of interest
Buccaneers (-4) at Cowboys
The Bucs sold out for Tom Brady, won a Super Bowl with him and are in position to win back-to-back division titles with a quarterback making half Cousins’ salary. Baker Mayfield is straddling the right side of the thin line between dumb and daring decisions. For weeks, the Bucs bailed out the Falcons by losing every time they did. Now they’ve won four games in a row, including a blowout of the Chargers in L.A. last week. I like the Bucs to cover.
Eagles (-4½) at Commanders
Dan Quinn is doing better than the Falcons since they parted ways. He’s already led Washington (9-5) to its most victories in a season since 2015 (Cousins was the quarterback that season). The Falcons need Quinn’s team to stumble. They’ll have a realistic shot to earn an NFC wild card if they win at Washington in Week 17 and the Commanders lose one of their other two games. I say the Commanders lose this week, but I’m taking them with the points.
Saints (+14) at Packers
A blown call by an official aided the Saints during their failed comeback attempt against Washington last week. That was the perfect time for Saints interim coach Darren Rizzi to complain about less-consequential calls that went against his team. New Orleans should keep this guy. Dennis Allen was bland, but Rizzi has the goods to be the face of the unlikable franchise. The Saints are punching above their weight with Rizzi. I like them as big ‘dogs at Green Bay.
Cardinals (-4½) at Panthers
Word out of Carolina is that the team’s leadership is pleased with Bryce Young’s growth. That would seem implausible for most organizations, but we’re talking about the Panthers. In his past seven starts Young has compiled eight touchdowns and six interceptions with 6.46 yards per pass attempt. However, Carolina is 5-2 against the spread in those games, and the Cardinals have lost steam after their bye week. Give me the Panthers with the points.
Last week: 4-6. Season: 74-73-1.
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