Weekend Predictions is treading water. Last time out I posted my third break-even week out of seven picking games against the spread this season. For the second straight week, I followed a terrible college football Saturday with a perfect NFL Sunday.
I must break free from this pattern of mediocrity. The Falcons are my inspiration. If they can do it, then so can I. Hopefully it won’t take me seven years to pull it off.
Seahawks (+3) at Falcons
The Falcons are 4-2 for the first time since 2016. They’ve won three straight games for the first time since Dan Quinn fooled Arthur Blank into keeping him around by winning four in a row to close the 2019 season. It’s been so long since they’ve been good that it’s hard for me to accept that they are now, but DVOA doesn’t lie. The Falcons rank 10th in that efficiency metric (adjusted for situation and opponent). A weak pass rush is holding them back, so at least one thing hasn’t changed.
The Seahawks have lost three consecutive games, all by two-score margins. Their road results are a win against the awful Patriots in overtime and a lopsided loss to the Lions. Quarterback Geno Smith has been just OK. The Seahawks aren’t well-equipped for the power runs that can hurt the Falcons. I’m taking the Falcons and giving the points.
No. 5 Georgia (+5) at No. 1 Texas
Lost in the controversy over Kirby Smart’s sideline shove of Mississippi State quarterback Michael Van Buren is that Georgia’s coach offered more resistance than his defense. After Van Buren carved up the Bulldogs, their defense ranks No. 10 in ESPN analyst Bill Connelly’s SP+ efficiency metric (adjusted for opponent and situation). Georgia’s SP+ defensive rankings from 2019-2023 were first, first, first, third, and fifth. Now comes Texas, ranked No. 2 in offensive SP+.
Georgia hasn’t fared well as an underdog with Smart. Throw out Smart’s first season in Athens (2016) because he was still building the program to his specifications. Since then, the Bulldogs are 2-4 straight up as underdogs. The markets have moved this line in Texas’ favor, tempting me to take Georgia and the points, but I’m sticking with the Longhorns as my pick.
No. 12 Notre Dame (-12) vs. Georgia Tech (Mercedes-Benz Stadium)
Georgia Tech caused a stir this week with its decision to move next year’s meeting with Georgia from Bobby Dodd Stadium to Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Tech athletic director J Batt told the AJC that he understands the risk of Bulldogs fans taking over the larger venue for what’s supposed to be a home game for his side. I get why Jackets fans don’t like it, but the same thing has been happening for years at Bobby Dodd, so Tech might as well grab for cash.
Sometimes I reach for reasons to back underdogs. In this case I need only to look at trends. Coach Brent Key’s Jackets are 10-7 straight up as underdogs. Their opponents were favored by at least two touchdowns in five of those victories. This Tech team is better than Key’s previous squads. The Fighting Irish are good on defense, but Tech’s offense is the best they’ve seen yet. I don’t see the Jackets winning, but I’m taking them with the points.
Other college football games of interest
No. 7 Alabama (-3) at No. 11 Tennessee
There’s a video circulating on social media that purportedly shows Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer saying that noise won’t be a problem at Neyland Stadium. It’s an AI fake, but I’m glad to see the technology used for the worthy cause of riling SEC fans. Bama’s pass defense is shaky. Volunteers quarterback Nico Iamaleava and his pass protection aren’t good enough to exploit it. The Crimson Tide will cover.
No. 8 LSU (-3) at Arkansas
I got nostalgic while watching LSU come back to beat Ole Miss on Saturday night. Ex-LSU coach Les Miles once was the luckiest man in college football, and current LSU coach Brian Kelly is carrying on that tradition. It’s possible that my feelings on this are influenced by my pick of Ole Miss to win. I like the Hogs as home ‘dogs now that their defense is looking better.
Virginia (+21½) at No. 10 Clemson
I regret to inform you that the reports of Dabo Swinney’s demise may have been premature. Since losing the opener to Georgia, Swinney’s Tigers have won five consecutive games by a combined tally of 243-96. None of those foes are good, but blowouts are blowouts. Some regression is inevitable for Clemson. I’m not counting on it happening this week. The Tigers are the pick.
Auburn (+4½) at No. 19 Missouri
During his Monday media session, Auburn’s Hugh Freeze said Missouri’s Eli Drinkwitz is among the coaches who does a good job with “lesser rosters in recruiting.” Freeze also included Mark Stoops (Kentucky) and Clark Lea (Vanderbilt). That’s a pretty good short list of candidates to replace Freeze once he’s inevitably fired for winning less with better rosters. I’ll take Missouri and give the points.
South Carolina (+2½) at Oklahoma
Before Oklahoma played Texas last weekend, Sooners coach Brent Venables told reporters that the Longhorns aren’t a measuring stick for his program “in any way, shape or form.” He’s right. The Longhorns are on another level. Oklahoma’s offense was awful again in the 34-3 defeat. South Carolina’s defense is pretty good. The Gamecocks are my pick.
Other NFL games of interest
Ravens (-3½) at Buccaneers
After Texas beat Oklahoma, Longhorns players Anthony Hill Jr. and Barryn Sorrell planted a team flag on Baker Mayfield’s No. 6 Sooners college jersey at midfield. Mayfield, now Tampa Bay’s QB, last played at Oklahoma in 2017. Mayfield to reporters about the incident: “Just a kid from Austin, Texas, that went to Oklahoma, won his last two Red River Rivalry games and (lives) rent free in their heads for almost a decade.” This is the nonsensical beef I didn’t know that I needed. Bucs are the pick.
Panthers (+8) at Commanders
During the Falcons-Panthers broadcast, Fox analyst Mark Sanchez started to make the point that Bryce Young should sit and learn from “true professional” Andy Dalton. Sanchez couldn’t finish the thought before Dalton threw a game-clinching interception. Dalton remains the starter, so the Panthers will continue to lose with him instead of Young at QB. The Commanders will cover.
Last week: 5-5 Season: 36-31-1
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