Weekend Predictions is stuck in mediocrity. I’ve had only one truly bad week on picks against the spread, but a bunch of so-so outings add up to a season record that’s still uncomfortably close to losing. Too many misses on college football are holding me back. That’s kind of embarrassing for a so-called expert in the college football capital.
That brings me to Georgia Tech’s upset victory over Miami. I picked the Hurricanes to win big based on my belief that Tech’s defense wouldn’t be able to slow them. I also figured that Yellow Jackets quarterback Haynes King would be limited by a shoulder injury. But Tech turned in their best defensive performance of the year, and King played winning football despite not being able to throw the ball far.
I got what I deserved for underestimating the Jackets. At least that losing pick was offset by the Falcons getting what they deserved with an unsightly effort in New Orleans.
Falcons (+2½) at Broncos
The Falcons are on track for their first NFC South title since 2016. So, naturally, they lost to the worst Saints team in 19 years. The Falcons bookended good victories over the Buccaneers and Cowboys with awful losses to Seahawks and Saints. They’ve scored two more points than they’ve allowed. Are the Falcons a good team performing inconsistently or is the inconsistency a sign they aren’t that good?
We’ll have more clues after they face Broncos coach/ex-Saints nemesis Sean Payton. Denver lost at Kansas City in Week 10 when the Chiefs blocked a 35-yard field-goal attempt to win. It came down to that because Payton’s offense sputtered for the game’s final 40 minutes. Denver’s great defense will make it hard on the Falcons, but they’ll shake off the weird loss to the Saints and score just enough points to win.
No. 7 Tennessee (+10) at No. 12 Georgia
Georgia won the four-team College Football Playoff for the 2021 and 2022 seasons and just missed making it back last season. Losing this game could keep the Bulldogs out of the 12-team playoff. They don’t pay Kirby Smart the big bucks to go multiple years without national title contention. That’s Clemson’s Way, not UGA’s.
Tennessee coach Josh Heupel has the Volunteers winning like they haven’t done since Phil Fulmer’s days. The next step is playing for a national championship. That likely will require Heupel to beat Georgia for the first time in his fourth try. The Vols couldn’t stay within two touchdowns in the other three meetings. The Bulldogs have slipped enough for this one to be closer. They’ll win, but Vols cover.
Arkansas State (+2½) at Georgia State
One of Fulmer’s failed successors, Butch Jones, is in town this weekend. Jones resurfaced at Arkansas State four years after Tennessee fired him. The Panthers are trying to avoid their first winless season in the Sun Belt since 2014, their second year in the league. They haven’t won straight up or covered the spread since beating Vanderbilt in Week 3. Both streaks end when the Panthers beat the visitors by at least a field goal.
Other college games of interest
No. 3 Texas (-13½) at Arkansas
Texas already got its SEC baptism by losing to a conference power at home. Now the Longhorns must avoid the pitfall of losing to a mid-tier league foe on the road. Tennessee lost in Fayetteville this season. Since then, Arkansas has suffered lopsided home losses against LSU and Ole Miss. I see that trend continuing. The Longhorns are my pick.
No. 20 Clemson (-10) at Pittsburgh
To make his point that the ACC is competitive, Clemson coach Dabo Swinney cited Virginia Tech’s season-opening loss at Vanderbilt. I could explain Swinney’s reasoning, but I assure you that it wouldn’t make any more sense. The Tigers still have an outside shot of winning the ACC should Miami and SMU stumble. It’s been an up-and-down season for Pitt. I’m counting on a peak for this week. Pitt is the pick.
No. 22 LSU (-4) at Florida
Glenn Guilbeau of Tigerrag.com published an article with the headline: “Brian Kelly Has Been A Disappointment, But So Was Nick Saban In 3rd Season.” I guess that means Kelly will win a national championship at LSU before washing out in the NFL and starting a dynasty at a different college program. After getting a vote of confidence from his boss, Florida coach Billy Napier led his team to a 32-point loss at Texas. I’ve also made the mistake of trusting Napier. Never again. Tigers cover.
No. 23 Missouri (+13½) at No. 21 South Carolina
After South Carolina won at Vandy, coach Shane Beamer told reporters that “the people who do the rankings don’t think we are worth a crap, and that’s fine.” The CFP selection committee robbed Beamer of his talking point three days later. Beamer is 0-3 against Missouri, but star Tigers quarterback Brady Cook (hand) is doubtful to play. Backup QB Drew Pyne isn’t bad, and Mizzou’s defense is pretty good. I’m taking the Tigers to cover.
Other NFL games of interest
Browns (+1.5) at Saints
Jameis Winston probably will never match the brilliance of his 2019 season. Winston tossed 33 touchdowns and 30 interceptions that year while leading the league in passing yards per game. But I’m hoping the Browns will give him a real chance to reach his full potential of greatness and terribleness. The Saints got a boost from interim coach Darren Rizzi against the Falcons. Rizzi will be 2-0 after his team wins this weekend while covering the spread.
Ravens (-3) at Steelers
Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson told media members that he couldn’t explain his 1-3 record against the Steelers. He should have pointed out why QB record is a dumb statistic. Jackson is on track to win a third league MVP while leading the league’s best offense. It’s still hard to trust the Ravens as a road favorite because of Jackson’s habit of making a silly mistake to keep games closer than they should be. I’m doing it, anyway. Baltimore is the pick.
Commanders (+3½) at Eagles
John Sheim of ESPN.com has a story on how Commanders coach Dan Quinn “reinvented himself” after the Falcons fired him. There are some interesting tidbits about Quinn picking the brains of basketball and baseball coaches. But the part that caught my eye is the revelation that Quinn and his wife own a “seaside house in Oahu, Hawaii.” I suddenly have a story idea I need to pitch to my editor. I like the Commanders with the points.
Last week: 6-4. Season: 56-51-1.
About the Author
