It’s been a weird season for Weekend Predictions. I’ve had losing records on picks against the spread only twice, but my season mark is barely above break-even because of too many middling weeks. Thankfully, I can be mediocre for the rest of the season and still win the NFC South.
Georgia Tech has a bye this week. That gives quarterback Haynes King’s shoulder time to heal before fifth-ranked Miami comes to Bobby Dodd Stadium on Nov. 9. Hopefully King returns to practice next week so that coach Brent Key can stop treating his injury status like a state secret.
Cowboys (+2½) at Falcons
Cowboys fans are set to invade Mercedes-Benz Stadium after Steelers and Chiefs supporters did the same. Just two players on the Dallas roster are old enough to remember the last time the team won the Super Bowl (1996). The enduring popularity of America’s Team is because of the evil genius of franchise owner Jerry Jones. He knows how to market his team even if he doesn’t know how to run it.
The Falcons are winning with offense. That could change if Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons suits up after missing the past three games with an ankle injury. The Falcons have had trouble handling game wreckers like him. The Cowboys have trouble stopping the run. That’s how the Falcons will win and cover even if Parsons plays.
Florida (+16½) vs. No. 2 Georgia (Jacksonville)
USA Today reports that Florida’s improved defensive performance came after players convinced coach Billy Napier to simplify the scheme. They should get a piece of Napier’s $7.3 million salary since they are better at his job. Boosters already have collected $26 million for Napier’s buyout, according to USA Today. Beating the Bulldogs may not even be enough to earn him a reprieve. The Gators still must play at No. 6 Texas and versus No. 16 LSU and No. 19 Ole Miss.
Dan Mullen’s Gators inexplicably beat Georgia in 2020. That’s Florida’s lone victory in the past seven games of the series. UGA won the past three meetings by a combined score of 119-47. Georgia ended a four-game losing streak against the spread at Texas. The Bulldogs will beat Florida, but end up on the losing side of this point spread.
Georgia State (+7½) at Connecticut
UConn is coached by Jim Mora, who once got himself fired by the Falcons for embarrassing Arthur Blank and ticking off Michael Vick. The Huskies are on track for their first bowl bid since the 2015 season. Georgia State took a late lead at Appalachian State last weekend before giving it back and suffering a fourth consecutive defeat. The Panthers did cover the spread, and that’s what’s most important because I picked them. I’m picking the other side this time.
Other college games of interest
No. 1 Oregon (-14½) at Michigan
Oregon coach Dan Lanning told reporters his team isn’t getting caught up in the hype of being No. 1. “I just don’t think we’ve ever measured ourselves based on what other people think,” Lanning said. I don’t think Lanning has to worry about expectations being too high. The Ducks have never won a national championship and last played for one in 2014. Michigan’s defense keeps this one close. Wolverines cover.
No. 4 Ohio State (-3) at No. 3 Penn State
Jim Harbaugh left Michigan for the NFL. The College Football Playoff field expanded to 12 teams. Ohio State coach Ryan Day still might fall on his face. The Buckeyes have played for a national title once in Day’s five full seasons as coach. A loss this week could knock them out of the CFP race. Luckily for Day, Penn State counterpart James Franklin is even more shaky in big games. I’m backing the Buckeyes.
No. 10 Texas A&M (-2½) at South Carolina
Yahoo Sports asks: “Has Mike Elko finally awakened the sleeping giant that is Texas A&M?” I wasn’t born in the early 20th century so I can’t remember when TAMU ever was a giant. Everybody thinks the Aggies are supposed to win because they’ve got so much money to spend, but that’s just the price of entry for big-time college football. TAMU has won seven consecutive games and is the only SEC team without a league loss. I like the Aggies to win again and cover the spread.
No. 19 Ole Miss (-7) at Arkansas
Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin said his team’s offense sputtered to the finish at Oklahoma last weekend because he was being conservative with his play calls. “We’re not trying to cover the spread,” Kiffin said during a news conference. Those words are deeply offensive to me, a person who took the Rebels and gave 20 points. Ole Miss is my pick again because a one-touchdown spread is immune to Kiffin’s slow-play antics.
Other NFL games of interest
Buccaneers (+9) at Chiefs
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has more interceptions than touchdowns even though he doesn’t throw deep much nowadays. Kansas City is 7-0 because of its elite defense. That’s not good for erratic Bucs QB Baker Mayfield, who has thrown 10 touchdowns and seven interceptions over his past three games. I’m going to try to catch the high point of the Mayfield thrill ride. Bucs are the pick.
Saints (-7½) at Panthers
The Saints are in freefall with six consecutive losses and increasingly funny quotes. Quarterback Derek Carr, set to return after a three-game injury stint, set expectations high when he told media: “I’m no savior.” Coach Dennis Allen sounded a hopeful tone for the future by telling WWL radio: “I don’t know that we have any great young players.” The Panthers are 1-9 against the spread, but QB Bryce Young showed enough at Denver in Week 8 for me to take Carolina as the home ‘dog.
Broncos (+9½) at Ravens
Broncos coach Sean Payton ran up the score on the Panthers last weekend and, afterward, pretended that’s not what he was doing. Payton should have just admitted it. It’s not as if his reputation can get any worse. I’d like to see the Ravens humble Payton like the Dolphins did with a 50-point victory last season. Unfortunately, Baltimore is the least trustworthy of the league’s good teams. Broncos are my pick.
Last week: 6-4. Season: 44-43-1
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