Weekend Predictions was pretty good last time out. I was denied greatness by Eagles coach Nick Sirianni.
All he had to do was take the short field goal in the first quarter against the Falcons. Then Philadelphia’s final field goal makes my pick against the spread correct. Instead, Sirianni ended up kicking a field goal when three more yards would have finished the Falcons. Luckily, Saquon Barkley’s dropped pass didn’t get Sirianni off the hook in Philly.
I made only one dumb pick in Week 3. That’s a big improvement. But I trusted Florida coach Billy Napier for the second time. You can’t give me enough points to do that again. OK, you probably could, but please don’t.
Chiefs (-3½) at Falcons
Quarterback Kirk Cousins moved much more confidently in Week 2 than he did in Week 1. Just like that, the Falcons looked like a normal NFL offense. They weren’t always sharp and got lucky on that Barkley drop. But all NFL teams need good luck, and Cousins took advantage. That was an impressive one-minute touchdown drive for victory.
Now come the Chiefs, winners of the past two Super Bowls. Kansas City has wins against two projected playoff teams (Ravens and Bengals). Patrick Mahomes is the league’s best QB. But KC’s offensive-efficiency numbers are lacking, and its defense is vulnerable. I like the Falcons with the points.
Georgia Tech (+10½) at No. 19 Louisville
Louisville coach Jeff Brohm told reporters of the Yellow Jackets: “I think they’re better on defense this year.” I’m skeptical, but here’s a chance for Tech to prove me wrong. The Jackets blew a 15-point lead in a loss to Louisville last season while allowing 26 points after halftime. The Cardinals have a better quarterback, Tyler Shough, and a deep group of skill players.
What I saw during Tech’s loss at Syracuse on Sept. 7 makes me think the defense isn’t any better yet. The unit ranks 81st in ESPN analyst Bill Connelly’s SP+ metric after it finished 86th last season. Tech QB Haynes King will find room to run, but his efforts won’t be enough to keep this one close. The Cardinals will cover the spread.
Other college games of interest
No. 6 Tennessee (-7) at No. 15 Oklahoma
Volunteers coach Josh Heupel returns to the place where he won a national championship as quarterback and was fired as offensive coordinator. Both teams are undefeated, but only one of them has played anybody. The Vols won big at N.C. State (I picked the home ‘dog, of course). Oklahoma’s victories were against two Group of Five opponents and Houston of the Big 12. I’m taking Tennessee to cover.
No. 11 USC (-5½) at No. 18 Michigan
USC coach Lincoln Riley’s teams have never played for a national championship. His QBs have included Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts and Caleb Williams. USC’s defense finally might be good enough. Michigan’s offense has looked lost without coach Jim Harbaugh and quarterback J.J. McCarthy. The Trojans are the pick.
N.C. State (+20) at No. 21 Clemson
Clemson coach Dabo Swinney on players staying where they are instead of transferring: “It hasn’t been rare here.” He’s got that going for him, at least. After getting beat down by Georgia, Clemson recovered with an impressive victory over Appalachian State. After getting beat down by Tennessee, the Wolfpack had to huff and puff to beat Louisiana Tech. I’m still taking N.C. State and the points on the belief that Clemson won’t score enough points to make it a blowout.
Arkansas (+3) at Auburn
Coach Hugh Freeze reasonably believed Auburn fans wouldn’t be enthusiastic after the Week 2 loss to Cal. “I was prepared to cancel Tiger Walk, (but) I came early to meet with recruits and saw all the people, and I said, ‘Well, we can’t do that,’” Freeze told reporters. The dominant win over New Mexico was nice, but now it’s SEC time. Lose the league opener and it gets scary with the next three games vs. Oklahoma, Georgia and Mississippi. I might side with the Tigers if not for their injury issues. Give me Arkansas and the points.
Florida (-6) at Mississippi State
Billy Napier told reporters that he’s “100%” sure he can make it to a fourth season as Gators coach. Hopefully Napier isn’t counting on that $27 million contract buyout for security. NIL is a pittance compared with what SEC schools pay coaches to go away. I like the Bulldogs as home ‘dogs.
Other NFL games of interest
Eagles (+3) at Saints
The Saints have looked like the NFL’s best team while outscoring the Panthers and Cowboys by a total margin of 62 points. The Saints also are the league’s oldest team. Maybe they’ll fade at some point, but — avert your eyes, Falcons fans — the Saints have won six of seven games going back to last season. Philadelphia’s defense surprisingly has generated little pass rush. Saints QB Derek Carr might have a big day. Saints are the pick.
Broncos (+7) at Buccaneers
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield told the Casa De Klub podcast that players were “pretty stressed out” when he arrived after playing three seasons with high-strung QB Tom Brady. “(The Bucs) just asked me to be myself,” Mayfield said, per JoeBucsFan.com. That seems like a bad idea considering Mayfield’s history, but it’s worked. The Bucs won the NFC South last season and are undefeated this year. Mayfield has a better Total QBR than Brady managed in his final season. I’m taking Tampa Bay and giving the points.
Panthers (+5½) at Raiders
Famous NFL draft bust Ryan Leaf ripped the Panthers for benching Bryce Young, the No. 1 pick in 2023. “This organization has done nothing to try to help and develop a player that has so much expectation on him,” Leaf told TMZ Sports. The Panthers are so dysfunctional that everyone agrees that Leaf’s got a point. Carolina’s defense is good enough to make this a game, and Dalton should be adequate. Panthers are the pick.
Last week: 6-4. Season: 15-13
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