Weekend Predictions is not feeling the holiday spirit. The tradition of watching wall-to-wall football doesn’t seem so appealing when it could mean constant reminders of my failures.
My season record is underwater after two consecutive losing weeks picking games against the spread. College football continues to be my weakness. I was reluctant to calculate my record on those picks because it might be demoralizing, and it is: 35-47-1. I’m 28-17 on my NFL picks.
I’ve always said pro football is a much better product than college football.
Chargers (-1) at Falcons
The Falcons (6-5) fizzled before the bye week with bad losses to the Saints and Broncos. Coach Raheem Morris said one post-bye change could be more play-action passes (after run fakes) with Kirk Cousins under center. Hopefully the reason the Falcons are waiting until Week 13 to play to Cousins’ strengths is because he’s more mobile a year after Achilles surgery. The alternative is that it took Morris and play-caller Zac Robinson that long to figure out Cousins should do more of what he’s good at.
The Chargers (7-4) won four consecutive games before getting humbled by the Ravens on Monday night. That improved Ravens coach John Harbaugh’s record to 3-0 against little brother Jim. Morris is 0-1 against Jim Harbaugh. His Buccaneers lost 48-3 at Harbaugh’s 49ers in 2011. On offense, the Falcons and Chargers are even. I’m picking the Chargers because they have the better defense.
Georgia Tech (+19.5) at No. 7 Georgia
Everyone knows this game is a talent mismatch in favor of Georgia. Yet there are reasons to believe the Yellow Jackets can pull off a huge upset. They already did it once this season by knocking off then-No. 4 Miami. Their 31-23 loss to Georgia last season ended a string of blowout defeats in the series since the Jackets won at Athens in 2016. Tech got better in the past year. The Bulldogs aren’t quite as good.
There’s also the curveball of Tech’s two-quarterback strategy. Haynes King and Aaron Philo made it work against Miami and N.C. State. Georgia’s defense is on a different level, but I like the way the Jackets compete. And I’m done with underestimating their defense. Bulldogs win, Jackets cover.
Other Rivalry Week games of interest
No. 3 Texas (-5) at No. 20 Texas A&M
These old rivals last met in 2011. The Longhorns won, but at least the Aggies could boast of leaving them behind in the Big 12 for the superior SEC. But now the Longhorns have a chance to win the SEC in their first season. TAMU has never come close to doing that. The Aggies took their first bad loss of the season last week (at Auburn). This point spread seems right. I side with home underdogs in such cases.
No. 5 Notre Dame (-7½) at USC
USC coach Lincoln Riley appears to have lost his touch. Riley made the four-team College Football Playoff at Oklahoma with quarterbacks Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts. He couldn’t do it with Caleb Williams. With Williams now in the NFL, the Trojans are headed to some lower-tier bowl game. Beating the Fighting Irish may not get the heat off Riley because his recruiting is a notch below elite. I’m taking Notre Dame and giving the points.
No. 8 Tennessee (-11) at Vanderbilt
Tennessee coach Josh Heupel didn’t have to worry much about Vanderbilt during his first two seasons. Now that the Commodores are a threat, Heupel is urging Volunteers fans to buy tickets for this game. Maybe he’d do that no matter what, but I’m thinking Heupel knows his team could use the help. Unfortunately for the Commodores, they’ve lost their juice on offense. Also, the Vols are desperate to impress the CFP committee. Tennessee is the pick.
No. 15 South Carolina (+2½) at No. 12 Clemson
South Carolina coach Shane Beamer expects that it will be a “yearly occurrence” for this game to have CFP implications. “We’re not going anywhere, our program,” Beamer said during a news conference. The Gamecocks just got here for the first time ever. It seems premature for Beamer (15-17 SEC record) to declare they’ll be an annual contender. But I do like his team to cover this year.
Auburn (+11½) at No. 13 Alabama
A Seattle Times headline asked the question: “Did Kalen DeBoer make a mistake in leaving Washington Huskies for Alabama?” Here’s my answer: Heck no. DeBoer took one of the top jobs in his profession while more than doubling his salary. If and when he gets fired, he’ll be hired by a second-tier program like Washington. DeBoer can’t afford to lose to Auburn with the stakes this high. Even a shaky victory will get people talking. Bama is my pick.
Other NFL games of interest
Buccaneers (-6) at Panthers
The Bucs blew out the Giants on the road last weekend. ESPN reporter Jenna Laine was on the scene grilling Bucs QB Baker Mayfield about the big story of the day, his TD celebration that trolled New York’s Tommy DeVito. The Bucs (5-6) are playing in the Sunday afternoon window after the Falcons. If the Bucs win and the Falcons lose, they’ll be tied for the NFC South lead (Falcons own the tiebreaker). I’m picking the Bucs to cover as road favorites again.
Rams (-2½) at Saints
The Saints followed an ugly victory over the Falcons with an impressive one against the Browns. The Falcons should want the Saints to win just enough for neophyte interim coach Darren Rizzi to keep the job, but not so much they get in the division race. The Eagles routed the Rams in Week 12. Now the Rams are dropping down in class. They are my pick.
Cardinals (+3½) at Vikings
The Cardinals are among the teams the Falcons want to see lose just in case the Falcons end up needing a wild card to make the playoffs. The Cardinals helped the cause with a loss at Seattle last weekend that ended a four-game winning streak. The Vikings signed QB Daniel Jones after the Giants dumped him. But Jones won’t play so long as Sam Darnold is healthy, so I’m backing the Vikings.
Last week: 4-6. Season: 63-64-1
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