Maybe I shouldn’t have complained about treading water. Weekend Predictions is underwater after a season-worst week picking games against the spread. I have some good excuses — I prefer to call them explanations when I’m the one saying it — but I’ll spare you the whining about my bad beats.
Georgia gets to take it easy for the next two weeks. The Bulldogs have an open date this weekend followed by the game against floundering Florida in Jacksonville. Against all odds, Gators coach Billy Napier is going to make it there.
Falcons (-2½) at Buccaneers
The Seahawks blew out the Falcons in Week 7. The Falcons still lead the NFC South because the Bucs also got routed on their home field. The Saints and Panthers suffered lopsided defeats in Week 7, too. The Falcons are on track to win the South by emerging as the best team from among a mediocre group. If that’s not inspiring, then just remember that the Falcons have been bad for all but two of the past 11 years.
The Falcons needed Kirk Cousins to pass for 509 yards to beat the Bucs in overtime in Week 5. Tampa Bay is more efficient on both sides of the ball, especially defense, and own the two best wins (vs. Commanders, at Lions). The Bucs likely would be favored if wide receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans were available. I still like the Bucs with the points, though I don’t think I’ll need them.
Georgia Tech (+10½) at Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech is on the come, just in time for the Yellow Jackets to visit. The Hokies earned back-to-back blowout victories against Stanford on the road and at home vs. Boston College. They also had a mini bye after playing the Eagles on Oct. 17. At least the Yellow Jackets aren’t playing a night game in Blacksburg.
Tech coach Brent Key says quarterback Haynes King is “day-to-day” for this game. Nice try, Coach, but you’re not fooling me again. Zach Pyron is set to make another start in place of King. Pyron wasn’t bad against Notre Dame, considering the circumstances, and he Tech’s starter for the victory at Virginia Tech in 2022. I don’t see the Jackets stopping the Hokies often enough this time. Virginia Tech is my pick.
Georgia State (+7½) at Appalachian State
Panthers quarterback Christian Veilleux passed for 269 yards and three touchdowns in the victory over Vanderbilt. Four games later and he’s no longer the starter. Coach Dell McGee says Zach Gibson will get the nod after he was effective in relief during the past two games. I like the change. Give me the Panthers and the points.
Other college games of interest
No. 5 Texas (-18½) at No. 25 Vanderbilt
Actor/Texas alum Matthew McConaughy chastised Longhorns fans in a social media post after some of them tossed debris on the field during the loss to Georgia. Unfortunately, McConaughy’s message fell flat because everyone read it in his voice and so no one took him seriously. Vandy is ranked for the first time since the final poll of the 2013 season. Too bad it won’t last. I’m counting on the Longhorns to bounce back and cover.
No. 8 LSU (+2½) at No. 14 Texas A&M
In just his third season at LSU, coach Brian Kelly is in position to make the playoffs and lose for the fourth time. The Tigers are winning with quarterback Garrett Nussmeier putting up big numbers. The Aggies haven’t allowed more than 24 points in four SEC games. Something must give. I say it will be LSU’s defense. TAMU is the pick.
No. 21 Missouri (+16½) at No. 15 Alabama
Alabama has lost two games before November for the first time since 2007, Nick Saban’s first year in Tuscaloosa. Saban has sprinkled in subtle criticisms of successor Kalen DeBoer amid his calls for fans to be supportive. Fans hate the way DeBoer dresses on the sideline. And now, per al.com, we’ve reached the stage of censoring fan calls to the coach’s show. I like Mizzou with the points.
Oklahoma (+20) at No. 18 Ole Miss
Remember when Brent Venables was to be the strongest branch of Dabo Swinney’s coaching tree? He’s 20-13 as Oklahoma’s coach; predecessor Lincoln Riley was 55-10. After Venables fired offensive coordinator Seth Litrell, he told reporters his team’s offense has been “an abomination.” True, but I haven’t seen the elite defense that Venables was supposed to bring to Norman. I like Rebels to cover after they got a needed bye week.
Other NFL games of interest
Saints (+7) at Chargers
The Saints have lost five games in a row, with the last three by a margin of two scores or more. Nola.com reports that the chants to fire coach Dennis Allen are getting louder in the Superdome. Allen mentioned his team’s injuries several times in the news conference after the Saints lost 33-10 to the Broncos in Week 7. Sounds like an excuse to me because I’m not the one saying it. I’m guessing Saints QB Derek Carr is out again, so Chargers are the pick.
Panthers (+10) at Broncos
Carolina’s cursed season took a scary turn when QB Andy Dalton was involved in a car accident with his family on Tuesday in Charlotte. No serious injuries were reported, but Dalton suffered a thumb injury that will force him to miss this game. Second-year QB Bryce Young is the starter again. My heart wants to take the points, but my head can’t shake the images of Young looking so bad in Weeks 1 and 2. Broncos cover.
Cowboys (+4) at 49ers
A headline at ESPN.com asks: “Are Jerry Jones’ fan tours a hurdle to a Cowboys Super Bowl?” Apparently, among the things standing in the way of ending the franchise’s 29-year Super Bowl drought are behind-the-scenes tours of the team’s facility, known as “The Star.” Mike McCarthy is on his way to becoming the latest Cowboys coach fired by Jones. Here’s hoping Jones ends up hiring Bill Belichick so they can make each other miserable. I like San Francisco to cover.
Last week: 2-8. Season: 38-39-1
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