Weekend Predictions has produced mediocre results after one month. Picking games against the spread is hard. If only I were facing the Mets instead of the market. Then I could just be so-so and wait for my opponent to collapse.
Georgia Tech is off this weekend. Coach Brent Key said he’ll come up with a plan to fix his team’s short-yardage offense after Tech failed to convert four times in those situations at Louisville. Perhaps the time off will give Key a fresh perspective on his belief that Tech should be able to run the ball no matter how many defenders are crowding the line of scrimmage.
Saints (+1 ½) at Falcons
The Falcons finally may have a good defense. Someone alert coach Raheem Morris. The Falcons trailed by five points when they failed to convert a fourth-and-5 at Kansas City’s 6-yard line with four minutes to play. Morris said one reason he went for it then was because he didn’t want to “allow Patrick Mahomes to work his magic.” The Falcons had handled Mahomes all game and did so again after that, but the offense let them down once again in defeat.
Morris likely won’t show as much deference to Saints quarterback Derek Carr. Carr’s run of spectacular play ended during the Week 3 loss to the Eagles. The Saints have a good defense that’s been a bit vulnerable against the run. The Falcons should be able to take advantage, and I’m banking on Morris making more optimal decisions this time. Falcons are the pick.
No. 2 Georgia (-2) at No. 4 Alabama
Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe took a shot at the Bulldogs after beating them for last year’s SEC championship. “I’m big on body language and looking into the opponents’ eyes,” Milroe told WJOX-FM. “They looked defeated, and they didn’t want any more.” Thankfully, that storyline hasn’t gained any traction this week. We don’t need to pretend the Bulldogs need extra motivation for this game.
Alabama is the only team to beat Georgia since the start of the 2021 season. Nick Saban retired, but the Crimson Tide machine is still humming with coach Kalen DeBoer. This is DeBoer’s first big game as Bama’s coach, which is not to say it’s his first big game. He came from Washington to Tuscaloosa with victories against teams coached by Steve Sarkisian, Dan Lanning and Lincoln Riley. I say DeBoer gets another big win this weekend against Kirby Smart. Bama is the pick.
Georgia Southern (+3½) at Georgia State
Georgia State beat Vanderbilt two weekends ago. The Commodores lost in overtime at No. 7 Missouri last week. Maybe the Panthers are good. But I saw them look bad against Georgia Tech, and the Yellow Jackets are just OK, I think. Meanwhile, Georgia Southern has gotten mediocre results from ex-USC coach Clay Helton. It’s all very confusing, so I’ll just retreat to my safe space and pick the underdog.
Other college games of interest
Kentucky (+17 ½) at No. 6 Ole Miss
Everyone assumes that Florida will fire Billy Napier and court Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin, who would, of course, take the job. Kiffin fueled that fire this week. He responded positively to a popular Gators social media account that expressed love for Kiffin and called him “absolutely everything that this current regime is not.” It would be weird if Kiffin won a national title at Ole Miss and then immediately left for another college program. It also would be so like Kiffin. I like Kentucky with the points.
No. 15 Louisville (+6) at No. 16 Notre Dame
I was right to pick Louisville to win big over Tech. I should have been wrong. Louisville scored touchdowns on a poor decision by Tech’s quarterback near the end zone and a blocked field-goal attempt. Those plays, and Tech’s insistence on running into brick walls, saved the Cardinals on a day when their offense misfired. I see Louisville working out those issues and covering the spread in South Bend.
No. 21 Oklahoma (-2 ½) at Auburn
After the home loss to Arkansas, Auburn coach Hugh Freeze said on his Tiger Talk radio show that “the hard truth is if we play them nine more times, we beat them nine times.” I’m wondering if Freeze can keep his job for nine more games. Auburn fired his predecessor, Bryan Harsin, when he was 9-12 (4-9 SEC). Freeze is 8-9 (3-6) with coming games versus Oklahoma, at Georgia and at Missouri. The Tigers would be looking a lot better without 10 total turnovers in losses. I’m picking them to cover while counting on better turnover luck.
Arkansas (+4) vs. No. 24 Texas A&M (Arlington, Texas)
This is a big game. The winner will have the inside track to represent the SEC in the Music City Bowl. The Aggies lost to Notre Dame, which looks worse after the Fighting Irish lost to Northern Illinois. TAMU won at Florida, but everybody is doing that now. Ditto for winning at Auburn, as Arkansas did last week. I’m picking the Aggies because I trust their defense more.
Other NFL games of interest
Bengals (-4 ½) at Panthers
The Bengals are 0-3 after losing at home to Washington. Per the NFL, the Bengals are the first team to lose while scoring at least four touchdowns with no punts or turnovers. Carolina’s offense looked a lot better with Andy Dalton at quarterback instead of Bryce Young, but I’m not tempting fate by picking the Panthers again. Bengals cover.
Eagles (-2 ½) at Buccaneers
I picked the Buccaneers to win by more than a touchdown against the Broncos, so naturally, they got blown out. “This is a good lesson for our team overall (that) you have to prepare like you’re playing in a playoff game every week, or else this can happen,” Bucs QB Baker Mayfield told reporters. I’m still not used to Mayfield sounding like a mature leader. I’m taking the home ‘dog in this one.
Steelers (-2) at Colts
I’m not saying the Falcons should have acquired Justin Fields instead of Cousins. I’m simply pointing out that Fields is 3-0 with the Steelers after they got him from Chicago for cheap. Now Russell Wilson might stay on the bench once he’s healthy. Fields has been steady while avoiding big mistakes. That’s been good enough because Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed only 26 total points in three games. The Colts will struggle to score, too. Pittsburgh is the pick.
Last week: 4-6. Season: 19-19.
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