Last year Georgia Tech football earned its first winning season since 2018. The Yellow Jackets can be better this season and still lose more games than they win. Every time I try to make a case for Tech making a bowl game again, I can’t get past the unforgiving schedule.
The good thing for the Jackets is they have a track record of winning as underdogs with coach Brent Key. But can they do that enough against a schedule that features five opponents ranked in the preseason AP Top 25 poll, including three in the top 10? The Jackets likely will be underdogs in at least two other games, too.
The Jackets are going to score a lot of points with quarterback Haynes King running the show. I don’t know if their defense can get enough stops when facing at least four foes with quarterbacks equal to or better than King. Tech’s defense hasn’t ranked in the top half of the ACC in points allowed since 2016. It was 13th last season and now will depend on a lot of newcomers, which can go either way.
Tech’s game in Dublin this weekend is pivotal for the season. If the Jackets pull off the upset against No. 10 FSU, then a 4-0 start is a real possibility. They’ll need that cushion before a challenging middle and brutal closing schedule.
The Seminoles are favored by 10.5 points against Tech. It’s possible they are overrated. I keep hearing about how the Seminoles are motivated by their College Football Playoff snub last season. Maybe so, but how much will that matter when so many good players left from that ACC-champion squad?
The Seminoles had 10 players selected in this year’s NFL draft, including five of the top 50. Last year’s ACC offensive player of the year, quarterback Jordan Travis, is gone. He’s replaced by D.J. Uiagalelei. He once was a big-time recruit, but hasn’t seemed to get much better since he was a freshman at Clemson.
The Seminoles being the Seminoles, they still have plenty of talented players. The defense will be very good again. But Tech’s offense is good, too. It’s the first game of the season, played across the Atlantic Ocean. Key’s Jackets are 5-0 against ranked ACC opponents. The ‘Noles should be on high alert for an upset.
After returning from Ireland, Tech’s next three games are at home versus Georgia State, at Syracuse and at home versus VMI. Georgia State and VMI are overmatched (Tech had two bad home losses in 2023, but I don’t see a similar slip-up this season). Strange things can happen inside Cuse’s dome, but I like the Jackets to win that game.
Tech is at Louisville for Week 5. Like FSU, the Cardinals have a good defense and a transfer QB (Tyler Slough) with something to prove. A home game against Duke is a toss-up for Tech. The Jackets will be underdogs at North Carolina, but they’ve won three consecutive games against the Tar Heels (even Geoff Collins beat them).
Tech’s schedule is a grind after that. No. 7 Notre Dame comes here to play at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Then the Jackets go to Virginia Tech, which is second to Louisville among teams also receiving votes in the AP Top 25. The Jackets close the season with home games against No. 19 Miami and No. 24 North Carolina State before going to Athens to face top-ranked Georgia.
That’s tough sledding for any team. Tech hasn’t successfully navigated a stretch like that since Paul Johnson’s 2014 team beat Clemson, Georgia, and Mississippi State to earn a No. 8 ranking in the final poll. It’s a lot to ask the Jackets to do something like that again when they were 12-13 over the past two seasons, including 11-10 with Key.
Before the Jackets left for Ireland, King declared that they’ve developed an identity as “a program to be reckoned with.”
“And it’s starting from top down, with what coach Key has built, not only with his recruiting, but with who he’s hiring,” King said. “And he stays true to that, and he cares about the culture ... and just the way to build a program. And we’re on the right track right now, and we’re just ready to go show it.”
The Jackets are ascending with Key. He got his players to believe again after Collins left them with lots of doubts. The Jackets improved last season largely because of King’s play. It wouldn’t have worked without toughness in the trenches that certainly is influenced by ex-offensive lineman Key.
I like that Key says that simply posting a winning record is too low of a bar for Tech. But there should be a celebration on The Flats if Key clears it against this schedule. Oddsmakers set Tech’s over/under win total at 5.5. Put me down for the under. Tech will be competitive, but there are too many tough opponents on the 12-game schedule to get to six wins, the minimum necessary to be eligible for a bowl game.
The Jackets can immediately make my prediction look shaky by beating the Seminoles in Ireland on Saturday.
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