The Braves lost back-to-back games to the lowly Marlins this past weekend to split the four-game series. Those results didn’t just blunt their momentum after a four-game win streak. The Braves also squandered a chance to put pressure on the Phillies in the National League East.
It looks like the Braves will get plenty more opportunities to close that gap, despite themselves. When they stumble, the Phillies fall. After looking like the best team in baseball for much of the season, the Phillies are floundering so badly that the Braves have made up ground despite their own troubles.
The Phillies ended a six-game losing with a victory at Seattle on Sunday. They immediately got back to losing late Monday at Dodger Stadium.
“There’s a lot of weird stuff happening that wasn’t happening at the start of the year,” manager Rob Thomson told reporters. “We’ve just got to fight through it.”
That sounds like what the Braves have said since their 19-8 start. They gave up the East lead to the Phillies on May 3. They were 9½ games back 10 days ago. The Braves couldn’t finish off the Marlins. Then they gained a half-game in the East on their day off when the Phillies lost in L.A.
Philadelphia’s lead is down to 5½ games. The Phillies were to play two more games against the Dodgers followed by four at the Diamondbacks, MLB’s hottest team. The Braves are hosting the Brewers, who they took two of three from last week in Milwaukee, before going on a 10-game West trip against weak competition. Now is the time for the Braves (60-51 to begin Tuesday) to make a move in the East.
The Phillies (66-46) have been leaking oil since sweeping the Dodgers in three games at home last month by an aggregate score of 19-4. That raised their record to 61-32. The FanGraphs statistical model gave the Phillies a 90% chance of winning the East. That probability has decreased to 77.8% as of Tuesday morning. It’s no longer such a sure thing that the Phillies will end the Braves’ division title streak at six years.
After sweeping the Dodgers, the Phillies lost two of three games against the Athletics going into the All-Star break. It was easy to overlook that result at the time, but Phillies players could sense something was wrong.
“I feel like the energy in the clubhouse has been different since the Dodgers series,” Phillies outfielder Nick Castellanos told reporters after a loss to the Yankees last week. “I don’t know the rhyme or reason, but it has felt different. I remember sitting here listening to a few guys say after that first loss against the A’s. ‘What a weird game. It just felt weird.’”
The vibes are still off for the Phillies. They lost four more games in a row after Castellanos noted the team’s off-kilter energy. They’ve lost five consecutive series since the All-Star break. Monday’s loss was their seventh consecutive in series openers and their fifth loss after scoring first since the All-Star break.
Philadelphia’s offense has come back down to earth. The weird part about that is the slide coincides with star sluggers Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber returning to the lineup in early July after nine-game stints on the IL. Schwarber has produced as usual, but Harper has not. His season batting average has dropped about 25 points and his OPS 70 points since the All-Star break.
Phillies starting pitchers have gone from excellent to just OK. Aaron Nola was staked a two-run lead Monday but gave it back with four extra-base hits allowed over a stretch of eight batters faced. The Phillies have lost four games in a row with Nola starting. That didn’t happen all last season.
“We’ve got to keep our head down, keep trying to win, keep competing,” Nola told reporters. “It’s going to go our way soon.”
Again, the Phillies are sounding a lot like the Braves. I didn’t see that coming back when they were rolling. Phillies baseball president Dave Dombrowski made two smart trades before the deadline by adding quality bullpen arm Carlos Estévez and lefty-bashing outfielder Austin Hays. But the new players haven’t helped the Phillies stop their slide.
The Phillies still have a better lineup than the Braves. They’ve got four hitters producing at a high level for the season: Harper, Schwarber, Trea Turner and Alec Bohm. Among Braves hitters, only Marcell Ozuna is on that tier. Philadelphia’s lineup is longer, too.
But the Braves have better pitching even with Spencer Strider, Max Fried and Reynaldo Lopez missing turns in the rotation because of injuries. The Braves can match Philly’s top three of Zack Wheeler, Nola and Cristopher Sanchez with Chris Sale, Fried and Lopez. Philadelphia’s bullpen really needed Estévez. Braves relievers have been strong all season.
After the Braves return home from the 10-game West trip, they are scheduled to play three games against the Phillies at Truist Park. Not long ago it seemed as if that would be a chance for the Phillies to bury the Braves in the East. Now it might be an opportunity for the Braves to get back in the race.
With the way the Phillies are going, the Braves don’t even need to be great between now and then to do it.
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