Georgia is a long shot to make the SEC Championship game. That’s bad for the Bulldogs because of their ever-burning desire to be top dogs in the conference. But missing the title game could be helpful to their College Football Playoff chances.
That’s my takeaway from the CFP committee’s rankings announcement on Tuesday night. Georgia is No. 12, down nine spots from before its loss at Ole Miss on Saturday. The Bulldogs are the “first team out” of the 12-team field right now. They’ll be in if they beat No. 7 Tennessee on Saturday at Sanford Stadium and win out against UMass and Georgia Tech.
The Bulldogs likely won’t make the SEC Championship game at 10-2. If so, then they surely would be one of the seven-highest ranked teams behind the five highest-ranked conference champions. That’s why missing the SEC Championship game probably would be for the best. The risk of a third loss for Georgia in the SEC Championship game outweighs the rewards of an 11th win.
The automatic CFP bid is the obvious benefit of winning the SEC. Failing to do that means leaving things to chance. But I see no realistic scenario in which 10-2 Georgia is passed over by seven fellow nonconference winners. If the Bulldogs win out, then they’ll have victories over three teams in this week’s CFP rankings: No. 3 Texas, No. 7 Tennessee and No. 20 Clemson. Neither loss is bad: at No. 10 Alabama and at No. 11 Ole Miss.
First thing is first: Georgia must win out. ESPN’s FPI projection puts the chances of that at less than even (45%). That’s mostly because the computer simulation sees Georgia as only a slight favorite over the Vols. The Bulldogs have a 62% chance of winning, according to FPI. The betting markets have Georgia favored by 10 points. FPI has it at four points.
The Bulldogs should beat both Tennessee and Georgia Tech. But both games will be tricky if Carson Beck and his pass-catchers can’t get things sorted out. The Ole Miss defense smothered Georgia; Tennessee’s defense is just as good. Georgia Tech just held Miami’s elite offense to 23 points and Haynes King’s shoulder might be mended by Nov. 29.
If the Bulldogs manage to make it to the SEC title game, they’d face another game against a top-5 team. The incentives to earn that chance include pride and protection from the whims of the CFP committee. The risk is losing again and missing the playoff. Let one of the SEC’s other two-loss teams take that chance.
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