The Hawks are in a kind of NBA purgatory this season. Fringe playoff team is their ceiling. Draft lottery team with no draft pick is their floor. Rebuilding isn’t an option so long as Trae Young’s maximum salary and other sizable ones are on the books.
The Hawks entered the season looking to win as much as they can while the team’s front office evaluates the roster and picks a direction. Both tasks got harder when the injured list got crowded less than a week into the season. And yet the Hawks entered this weekend with a 4-5 record, fifth best in the Eastern Conference. They have reasons to feel good about their potential once they have a full roster.
It’s probably the best the Hawks could hope for, considering they’ve been missing more than half of their top eight players for multiple games. Coach Quin Snyder said he wants to see “competitive endurance” from the Hawks. They’ve shown that even while shorthanded.
“It’s been great,” Hawks forward Jalen Johnson said. “We know when it all comes together, it’s going to be fun.”
There is evidence to support that view. The Hawks rank 12th among NBA teams in points scored per possession (all statistics before Friday’s games). The shot selection is ideal. The Hawks are attempting and converting a high percentage of the two most efficient shots on the court, at the rim and 3-pointers from the corners.
Much of that can be credited to Young, the NBA’s best playmaker. Johnson has relieved pressure from Young by developing into a great passer on the wing. The offense should improve when sharpshooters Bogdan Bogdanovic and De’Andre Hunter return from their injuries. Hunter (knee) presumably is close. Bogdanovic (hamstring) is out for at least another three weeks.
A full complement of players also should allow the Hawks to play faster. They rank fifth in possessions per game. Snyder wants that number to be even higher because he believes the Hawks have a better chance to score in transition than they do against a set defense.
“If you don’t have as many players, it’s harder to run, and it’s harder to defend,” Snyder said. “But it’s not impossible.”
Defense has been a long-term issue for the Hawks. It still is. They rank 25th in efficiency. But there are some positive signs at that end, too.
The defensive efficiency of the team’s most-used lineup ranks in the 96th percentile, per Cleaning the Glass (garbage time excluded). The defensive issues creep in when Snyder starts to use his bench. Hunter and Bogdanovic will help when they get back.
In the meantime, the Hawks are doing the best they can with the available players. The early results correlate with the length of the team’s injury list.
The Hawks won the opener at Brooklyn when all rotation players except backup guard Kobe Bufkin were available. The Hawks beat the Hornets without Bufkin and sixth-man Bogdanovic. But then the injuries became too much. Championship-contender Oklahoma City blew out the Hawks after Hunter was added to the IL. The Hawks lost to the Wizards when backup center Onyeka Okongwu was out and lost to the Wizards again when starting guard Dyson Daniels joined the injured list.
The Hawks got a reprieve from losing when Daniels returned to help them beat the Pelicans, an opponent that equally was depleted by injuries. The Celtics dominated the Hawks, but well, the defending NBA champions can do that. The Hawks beat the Knicks on Wednesday behind a great all-around performance by rookie Zaccharie Risacher, the No. 1 overall pick in the draft.
The Hawks were lucky to win the pick they used to select Risacher. They leapfrogged nine teams with better lottery odds. There is no upside to the losing this season. The Spurs own the Hawks’ first-round pick. The Hawks won’t get a top-14 pick no matter how low they finish in the standings, unless they trade for one.
Before the season, oddsmakers set the over/under win total for the Hawks at 36.5. They are on pace for the over despite all the injuries. The Hawks won 36 games last season, even though Young suffered the first major injury of his career and sat out all but three of the final 26 games. The season ended with a loss in the first play-in game.
A similar fate is likely for the Hawks this season. But maybe they’ll overachieve with a healthy roster and the competitive spirit they’ve shown so far. The Hawks would have something to build on by doing so after the injury-marred start to the season and with four relatively inexperienced players in the rotation. The Hawks are hurting, but they’re competing.
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