Georgia did not make a run in the men’s SEC basketball tournament. The Bulldogs barely were there. You couldn’t tell that from listening to coach Mike White after Georgia’s one-and-done loss to Oklahoma in Nashville.
“Thought we could really be competitive here in this tournament, and we were,” White told reporters. “Going home a little bit earlier than we had hoped. This team has accomplished a lot.”
I understand what White was getting at. The Bulldogs won 20 games. They likely won enough of them against a historically tough SEC schedule to earn an NCAA Tournament bid. If the Bulldogs hear their name called Sunday, it will end a 10-year drought.
Still, it was weird to hear White say the Bulldogs were competitive in the league tournament after they didn’t win a game. They had a higher seed than Oklahoma and were favored to win. And I wouldn’t say the Bulldogs (20-12) have accomplished a lot. They lost more games than they won in the SEC (8-10). The quick exit in Nashville put a damper on the strong four-game finish to the regular season.
Now, the Bulldogs are set to get a chance to really accomplish a lot. Historically, that bar isn’t high for the program in the NCAA Tournament. All the bracket experts predict that Georgia will make the field despite the loss to Oklahoma on Wednesday. Can the Bulldogs win at least one game once they get there?
Georgia hasn’t done that since 2002 (the NCAA later vacated the victory over Murray State in Chicago because of rules violations, but it happened). It would be a big deal if this young Bulldogs team could stay in the bracket for more than a day. Georgia hasn’t made it past the tournament’s second round since 1996 and has done so just twice all-time. If the Bulldogs pull that off, then give a contract extension to White and pay NIL bonuses to his players.
Matchups mean a lot in one-and-done tournaments, so Georgia’s chances can’t be fully evaluated until we see where they are placed in the bracket. However, we can guess their seeding by leaning on the collective wisdom of the crowd at Bracket Matrix. As of Friday, the consensus among those experts is that Georgia likely will be a No. 9 seed, with the possibility of slipping to No. 10.
If that’s how it plays out, then the Bulldogs likely will be slight underdogs in their opening game. The good news for Georgia is that nine and 10 seeds historically have fared well in the first round. Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, No. 8 seeds have a losing record against No. 9 seeds (75-81), and No. 10 seeds have won more than 40% of the time.
Another good sign for the Bulldogs is they played better against favored opponents late in the season.
Georgia was the underdog in victories against St. John’s in November and versus Kentucky in January. Then the Bulldogs lost seven games in a row as underdogs. Six of those defeats were by double-digit margins, including losses by 15-plus points at Tennessee, Florida, Alabama and Texas A&M.
Four consecutive in February put the Bulldogs on the wrong side of the NCAA tournament bubble. Then Georgia started the four-game win streak with an upset victory over favored Florida in the rematch. The Bulldogs won as underdogs at Texas, handled South Carolina and beat Vanderbilt.
Georgia sophomore guard Silas Demary said a turning point for the team was how players responded after the four-game losing streak.
“To see the guys’ morale after we lost to Auburn, going into that Florida game on Sunday, we had a lift and everybody was still up in great spirits,” Demary said. “We were chanting together in the weight room.”
We’ll see if the Bulldogs will have the same energy after the loss to Oklahoma. They certainly are battle-tested, even if they lost most of their toughest skirmishes. Georgia is 5-12 against teams projected to make the tournament field. At least the Bulldogs likely won’t be facing any of their SEC rivals in the first game.
The tournament selection committee doesn’t match teams from the same conference in the first round. Exceptions are made if one of them advances from the “first four” games into the main bracket. The committee might have to bend that rule further with as many as 14 SEC teams projected to make the field.
The Bulldogs should be a problem for any first-round opponent because of their defense. As of Friday, they ranked 25th nationally in defensive efficiency per Kenpom.com. Kentucky, the seventh ranked offensive team, had its least efficient scoring game of the regular season against the Bulldogs. Florida, Texas and Vanderbilt also struggled to score against them.
The Bulldogs are a pretty good offensive team (53rd) because of their ability to score in the paint and earn free throws. They’d be even better if not for one major weakness. After Thursday’s games, Georgia ranked 348th among 364 teams in the percentage of offensive possessions that end with steals. Turnovers were a major factor in losses against tournament-bound teams Marquette, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Florida and Texas A&M.
So, the formula for the Bulldogs to win their first NCAA Tournament game in 23 years is simple if not easy: Play their usual rugged defense and take care of the ball. It would also help if freshman center Asa Newell, a future lottery pick in the NBA draft, has a big game. And a bit of good luck is always necessary to win in single-elimination tournaments.
The Bulldogs will have a good chance to earn a rare NCAA tournament victory for the program if all those elements come together. Then, White would be right to say that they accomplished a lot.
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