Falcons have real chance to blow NFC South lead that seemed safe

The Falcons had a two-in-three chance of winning the NFC South before Week 13. The probability is 50% after the Falcons lost and the Buccaneers won Sunday. The Falcons have the third easiest schedule remaining. The Bucs have the second easiest slate of games left.

That’s the state of the South, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index projections. The Falcons (6-6) essentially are a game ahead of the Bucs (6-6) by virtue of the season sweep. The Bucs have a coin flip’s chance to finish with a better record, per FPI. No one who’s watched the Falcons lately will argue with that statistical forecast.

The Bucs have a much better point differential (plus-39) than the Falcons (minus-34). The Bucs are 3-5 against teams currently in playoff position; the Falcons are 1-5. Then there’s the biggest reason to believe the Bucs will overtake the Falcons. They have the league’s fifth-ranked scoring offense, while the Falcons have plummeted to 19th.

The Falcons have totaled 36 points on 28 drives over their past three games (garbage time and end-of-half possessions excluded). They managed to tally two touchdowns over that span, which was one more than their offense allowed. The Falcons had six interceptions and four missed field-goal attempts in those three games.

Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins had the worst game of his career in Sunday’s loss to the Chargers. The team’s defense was great against the Chargers, but was steamrollered by Denver’s below-average offense in the previous game. Kicker Younghoe Koo once was the best thing the Falcons had going for them. Now he’s become unreliable at a time when they can finally become winners.

The Falcons are five-point underdogs for their game at Minnesota (10-2) on Sunday. They’ll face a top-tier defense for the third consecutive week. The Broncos and Chargers shut down Cousins and Co. The Vikings are well-equipped to give them the same treatment. The Lions (No. 1 in scoring offense) are the only visitors to total more than 22 points in five games at Minnesota’s place.

Three of the Falcons’ final four opponents aren’t good on defense: Raiders, Commanders and Panthers. But the Seahawks and Saints also are subpar on defense, and they stopped the Falcons. Cousins was a weak link against those teams and against the Broncos and Chargers. In those four losses Cousins averaged 6.9 yards per pass attempt with one touchdown, eight interceptions and five fumbles.

The Falcons got rid of Cousins’ predecessor, Desmond Ridder, because he was turnover-prone. Now Cousins leads the league in interceptions (12) and fumbles (12, with two recovered by opponents). Lately, his interceptions have all looked the same: Cousins locks eyes on his target for too long before belatedly delivering a pass with little zip. That’s how Chargers rookie Tarheeb Still got an easy pick-six against the 13-year veteran.

Not everything is bad for the Falcons. Bijan Robinson has been very efficient as a runner and pass-catcher (producing more big plays is the final step). The Falcons finally generated an effective pass rush against the Chargers while recording their first takeaway since Oct. 27 at Tampa Bay. If Cousins can get his act together, then the Falcons could finish strong against the soft schedule.

The Bucs are set up to do the same thing. Three of their final five games are at home against teams with non-winning records. The Bucs host the Rams this weekend. They can count on scoring enough points against L.A.’s below-average defense. The Bucs have tallied 24 points or more in nine consecutive games, including five games with 30-plus points.

Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield has performed at least as well as Cousins this season, and at half the cost. That’s not the way it was supposed to go. The Falcons signed the best available quarterback in free agency. Mayfield was further down the list. Now their teams are on even footing with five games to play (tiebreaker notwithstanding).

Not long ago that it seemed as if the Falcons would run away with the division. They won at Tampa Bay to clinch the season sweep. The next week they led the Cowboys over the game’s final 50 minutes. But then came the ugly loss at the Saints, the uglier loss at the Broncos and the Cousins meltdown against the Chargers.

Meanwhile, the Bucs have won back-to-back games for the first time since they were 2-0. They blew out the Giants on the road in Week 11. They nearly blew it against the last-place Panthers on Sunday before prevailing in extra time. It was a reminder that Tampa Bay’s defense is not good.

Before the season, oddsmakers made the Falcons the favorites to win the South. Those odds got even shorter once Cousins shook off the post-surgery rust and led the Falcons to a 6-3 start. Now the Falcons have lost three consecutive games and four of six with Cousins’ play regressing. That’s why it’s hard to argue against FPI’s assessment that the Falcons now have one a 50-50 shot of blowing it.