Braves need better health, not better lineup for 2025

Short postseason stay shouldn’t lead to major trades
Atlanta Braves outfielder Michael Harris, left, reacts from the dugout with pitcher Joe Jiménez after losing to the San Diego Padres 5-4 in National League Division Series Wild Card Game Two at Petco Park in San Diego on Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024. The Padres advance to the Division Series to face the Los Angeles Dodgers.  (Jason Getz / Jason.Getz@ajc.com)

Credit: Jason.Getz@ajc.com

Credit: Jason.Getz@ajc.com

Atlanta Braves outfielder Michael Harris, left, reacts from the dugout with pitcher Joe Jiménez after losing to the San Diego Padres 5-4 in National League Division Series Wild Card Game Two at Petco Park in San Diego on Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024. The Padres advance to the Division Series to face the Los Angeles Dodgers. (Jason Getz / Jason.Getz@ajc.com)

SAN DIEGO — Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos has said he won’t trade any of the team’s young players who’ve signed contract extensions. He included some caveats that could change the equation —underperformance, injuries, off-field issues — but Anthopoulos said that, barring “special circumstances,” the guys who are signed long-term are staying.

That was the GM’s view last December. I don’t see it changing during this offseason.

The Braves went one-and-done in the playoffs for the third straight year. The offense came up empty against the Padres in the National League wild-card series, same as it did against the Phillies in the 2022 and 2023 NLDS. But making major changes to the lineup would require trading players that Anthopoulos has said he’s reluctant to part with.

Those type of drastic moves aren’t warranted under the circumstances. The returns likely wouldn’t include players with the same production per dollar. No need to overreact after a third straight offensive flameout in the postseason, especially when injuries to key pitchers at the wrong time were a big factor again.

The Padres eliminated the Braves in the best-of-three wild card series on Wednesday. The Braves didn’t score in Game 1 and lost 5-4 in Game 2. The lack of runs is no surprise to anyone who watched them scuffle to score over 162 games. It’s also the case that the offense should be better in 2025 with better health.

The Braves won 89 games this season despite their struggles scoring. They could make up the six-game gap on the Phillies in the NL East with better health. Good hitters Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies all missed significant time with injuries this year.

“Losing multiple All-Stars and still somehow making the playoffs,” Braves catcher Travis d’Arnaud said. “Resiliency.”

It’s unlikely the Braves will have such lousy injury luck in 2025. Anthopoulos could do nothing much with the lineup and the Braves still would be projected to make the playoffs again.

It’s true that the all-or-nothing offense didn’t operate at peak efficiency this season even when most of the key parts were in place. The chances are good that the power pendulum will swing back the other way once the lineup is whole for long stretches. Adding more disciplined contact hitters sounds good, but how can Anthopoulos do that via trades while getting comparable value in return?

You can make the case that Acuña, Albies and Michael Harris fit in the injury caveat that Anthopoulos outlined. Albies missed nearly 100 games in 2022 and more than 50 this season. ACL tears ended Acuña’s seasons early in 2021 and 2024. Leg injuries limited Harris to 138 games in 2023 and 110 games this year.

But all those players all are signed to bargain contracts. Acuña was the NL MVP in 2023. Harris finished this season strong and was the team’s best hitter in the wild-card series. Albies seems to be the most expendable of the three but, again, could the Braves get back a player for him with comparable production with a $7 million salary and team control through 2027?

Major trades for hitters aren’t necessary for the Braves, even if it seems that way in the aftermath of another early October exit. Also factor in the pitching injuries that hampered the Braves against the Padres. Chris Sale, the favorite to win the NL Cy Young Award, wasn’t on the wild-card roster because of back spasms. Then a freak injury to Max Fried, the team’s best available pitcher, hindered him in Game 2.

After Braves hitters staked Fried to a 1-0 lead in the first inning, he escaped a bases-loaded jam in the bottom of the inning. But San Diego’s No. 2 hitter Fernando Tatis Jr. hit a line drive that smacked Fried in his left glute muscle. Fried said the muscle tightened up during the second inning, when he gave up six consecutive hits and the Padres turned the one-run deficit into a four-run lead.

“It’s deflating and frustrating knowing that we played a good-enough game to ultimately win that, but I put us in too big of a hole and I lost it,” Fried said. “It’s definitely a tough one to swallow.”

The Braves didn’t go away quietly. The bullpen kept them in the game after the starters faltered, same as they did in on Tuesday. A solo homer by Jorge Soler in the fifth inning and a two-run shot by Harris in the eighth cut their margin to a run.

But those were all the runs the Braves could muster. They didn’t win a game this postseason after losing three games to one to the Phillies in two straight NLDS series.

Said Harris: “I feel like this was a pretty positive season considering how rough it was (with) the guys we had go down and never having the same lineup since Day One. Winning 89 games is pretty good for this season and (then) even having the chance to go to the World Series. I’m really proud of this group of guys and how we connect. We were still able to come together and win games even when we didn’t have all the guys we are used to having. "

Those circumstances will change next season. There’s just no way the Braves will have such a bad run of injuries again. It’s unlikely that so many good hitters will slump at the same time for such long periods.

The pitching staff will be strong again in 2025. Fried is set to become free agent but Sale is under contract for next season. So is right-hander Spencer Strider, who made just two starts this season before undergoing elbow surgery. Spencer Schwellenbach will look to build on a strong rookie season that ended with a 3.35 ERA over 21 starts.

Consistent offense is what the Braves were missing this season. It’s the main reason they had to sneak into the wild-card round with a victory in game No. 162. It’s why their postseason stay was short for the third straight year.

But the lack of offense shouldn’t prompt Anthopoulos to make major trades to shake up the lineup. Best to keep this group together, bet on better health and production, and make another run to the postseason in 2025.