It’s too simple to say that the Braves aren’t spending in free agency because Liberty Media is cheap. After all, the team’s corporate owner has paid the luxury tax on player payrolls for two consecutive seasons.
That penalty would be stiffer this year, though. Now that the Braves have remained quiet in free agency with spring training around the corner, some of their supporters no doubt are thinking about two quotes from team officials that always resurface at times like this.
In 2016, Liberty Media chairman John Malone told shareholders that “the Braves are now a fairly major real estate business as opposed to just a baseball club.” Three years later, after the Braves had won two division titles while making a mint at their taxpayer-subsidized ballpark, general manager Alex Anthopoulos said his bosses told him he could “shop in any aisle” in free agency.
The Braves shopped in the free-agent bargain bin that year and have done the same in every year since. Now they aren’t doing much buying at all.
As of Friday, they Braves had yet to sign a free agent to a fully guaranteed, big-league contract. They still could use upgrades in the outfield, the starting rotation and the bullpen. Meanwhile, three key Braves players from 2024 signed elsewhere: right-hander Max Fried (eight years, $218 million, Yankees), catcher Travis d’Arnaud (two years, $12 million, Angels) and right-hander Charlie Morton (one year, $15 million, Orioles).
No one expected the Braves to re-sign Fried. We saw with Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson that the Braves don’t match long-term offers for their players when they reach free agency (there are conflicting accounts about whether Anthopoulos tried to do so with Freeman, who was the 2024 World Series MVP for the Dodgers). The Braves could have kept d’Arnaud for a reasonable $8 million salary, but he’ll be 36 next season and prospect Drake Baldwin should be ready for MLB soon.
Morton’s departure is more surprising. The Braves need starting pitching. Morton was good-to-solid for them over the past four seasons. He signed with the Orioles for one year and $15 million, which is $5 million less than his 2024 salary. It’s the kind of low-risk contract that the Braves usually do. That they didn’t go there for Morton suggests that even bargain-bin deals are too much for them now.
If so, then the best remaining free agents who fit their needs may be out of reach.
Right-hander Jack Flaherty signed a one-year, $15 million “show me” deal with the Tigers in 2024. He was very good for them and pretty good for the Dodgers after they acquired him in a trade. Maybe Flaherty, 28, would accept another short-term deal now that the season is approaching.
Japanese pitcher Roki Sasaki will be available soon. His salary would be capped at about $10 million per season under the rules for the international bonus pool. If the Braves want him, then they would have to convince Sasaki that they are a better fit than the many other teams pursuing him.
There don’t appear to be many good outfielders on the market who are good fits for the Braves. The best of the bunch, Anthony Santander, can probably still expect to get a long-term deal. Mark Canha is a more realistic possibility. He gets on base often, a skill the Braves could use, and can play both corner outfield positions. Harrison Bader offers good defense and not much offense. The Braves already have options in the outfield who can provide that.
We’ll see if Anthopoulos can acquire any of those free agents or others on a short-term contract. His typical practice has been to make those kinds of deals early in the offseason. After the end of last season, he reduced the team’s 2025 payroll commitments.
It seemed the Braves were clearing the books then to go after free agents later. With no significant signings so far, it appears they are concerned about avoiding the luxury tax.
The Braves paid 20% on payroll above $233 million in 2023 and 30% on payroll above $237 million in 2024. This year, the Braves would pay 50% on payroll above $241 million. Their payroll was roughly $24 million below that threshold as of Friday. If the Braves don’t pay the tax this year, then the penalties would be reset to 20% for payroll above the threshold in 2026.
Anthopoulos said in December that the tax wouldn’t prevent the Braves from signing free agents who improve the team. They did so the past two seasons. They seem to be avoiding it this year. Whether you believe that makes the Braves cheap depends on your perspective.
My view is that Liberty Media can easily afford to pay the tax on payroll above the threshold. The Braves would continue to make a lot of money from their publicly subsidized ballpark/real estate development. The corporate bean counters must love that Anthopoulos has signed several star players to below-market contract extensions.
But all of that is easy for me to say because it’s not my money. Businesses spend only what they need to spend to generate the most profit. The Braves will rake in the cash this year whether they pay the tax or not. The team will be good again this season even if they don’t add another free agent. Customers will continue to flock to Truist Park.
The Braves won 89 games in 2024 despite bad injury luck and down seasons from several veteran hitters. Outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. will play at some point this season after suffering a season-ending knee injury in May. It’s reasonable to expect better offensive production from first baseman Matt Olson, catcher Sean Murphy and third baseman Austin Riley.
There are more questions about the starting rotation.
The top four starters project to be Chris Sale, Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach and Reynaldo López. Sale and Strider both have health concerns. López made a very successful transition to starter in 2024 but could be in line for regression. Schwellenbach was outstanding as a rookie, but the question for young baseball players who are immediately successful is whether they keep it up.
There’s still time for Anthopoulos to make moves before the start of the season. Most of the best free agents are off the market, but he’s proved to be very resourceful with building the team’s depth via smart signings and trades. Anthopoulos may have to accomplish that this year while digging even deeper in the bargain bin.
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