The Falcons took a big risk by giving $100 million guaranteed to an older quarterback recovering from a major surgery. The Kirk Cousins Experiment failed soon after it started. Michael Penix Jr. didn’t get any meaningful reps with the offensive starters until two weeks ago. That unfamiliarity was a factor when the Falcons lost their biggest game in years Sunday at Washington.
Botching the QB situation isn’t the only reason the Falcons (8-8) are on the brink of missing the playoffs for the seventh consecutive year. It’s the biggest one. Penix can lead the Falcons to victory against the Panthers (4-12) on Sunday, and it won’t change their playoff fate unless Tampa Bay (9-7) also loses as a two-touchdown underdog to the Saints (5-11). I couldn’t find a statistical projection that gives that scenario more than a 16% chance of happening.
It wasn’t supposed to be this way for the Falcons. They signed the most expensive quarterback in the NFC’s weakest division after drafting offensive players with top-eight picks for three consecutive years. Now Cousins is the backup, and the Falcons rank 16th in scoring. That’s better than last season (26th), but about the same as in 2022 (15th). That season, the Falcons quarterbacks were Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder, and standout running back Bijan Robinson had yet to join the backfield.
Falcons coach Raheem Morris finally benched Cousins after he performed among the NFL’s worst starters for a month. Penix has injected life into the offense. He was excellent during the game-tying drive late at Washington. He got the Falcons in position to win with a field goal.
But Penix said he missed some throws during the game because he hadn’t yet had time to develop chemistry with his pass-catchers. Morris said he didn’t call timeout during a critical end-of-game sequence because he expected his rookie QB to rush to the ball (it still was a poor decision by Morris). Maybe Penix would have been more in-tune with his head coach and wide receivers if he’d played any meaningful snaps in games before Dec. 22.
Penix also took a back seat to Cousins during offseason preparations. That’s usually how it works in the NFL. It especially was necessary for the Falcons to focus on Cousins. He was returning from Achilles surgery while working with a new play-caller and new teammates. The Falcons had to do everything possible to get Cousins ready, which meant they couldn’t do everything possible to prepare Penix.
That’s one of many reasons why it didn’t make sense for the Falcons to draft Penix after signing Cousins. It’s possible that Penix will become a good starter in 2025. The Falcons still would have to take a huge hit to their salary cap to move on from Cousins. The best-case scenario is a trade that would leave $38 million in “dead” money that can’t be used to sign other players. Given his diminished trade value, it’s more likely the Falcons will be stuck with $65 million in dead money after releasing Cousins.
I’m not criticizing the Falcons after the fact. In March, I opined that they shouldn’t splurge on a contract for Cousins because of his age and injury history. Sure enough, Cousins’ immobility is a factor in his poor performance. I thought the wiser move for the Falcons was to spend on other needs, most of all the pass rush. The Falcons rank next to last in sacks per pass attempt and 25th in pressure rate per Pro Football Reference.
In December, I criticized Morris for not playing Penix when the Falcons were hopelessly behind at Minnesota in Week 14. That was the time for Penix to get some experience running the hurry-up offense with the starters. Morris’ explanation for why he didn’t put Penix in the game made little sense. Three weeks later, Morris was explaining that Penix didn’t perform as expected during a hurry-up situation.
That overtime loss to the Commanders put the Falcons on the brink of elimination from the playoffs. A seven-year drought would be the third longest in franchise history. It would be the worst when placed in context.
The Falcons didn’t make the playoffs for their first 12 years of existence (1966-77), but the NFL didn’t award wild-card berths during that time. The Falcons failed to make the playoffs from 1983-90, but that was before the league adopted the salary cap and real free agency. The Falcons have managed to miss the playoffs for six consecutive years even though the NFL has engineered the system so that bad teams don’t stay bad for long.
Maybe they’ll get lucky and end the streak with a victory and Bucs loss. If that happens, then the failed Kirk Cousins Experiment will fade into the background. It’s much more likely that the Bucs will beat the Saints to win the NFC South for the fourth consecutive year while the Falcons are home for the postseason for the seventh year in a row.
Botching the QB decision isn’t the only reason the Falcons are facing that fate. It’s the biggest one.
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