The Braves didn’t break after their opening-day starter made only one more start before needing elbow surgery. They stayed afloat when the reigning National League MVP was out of the lineup for good by June. The Braves remained in the NL wild-card race after their All-Star pitcher, All-Star catcher, All-Star second baseman and best defensive outfielder joined the injured list for long stints.
Every team has a breaking point. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Austin Riley’s injury is that for the Braves. He’s out for the rest of the regular season with a fractured wrist. Riley has been the only consistent hitter for the Braves other than Marcell Ozuna.
But it’s possible the Braves still will make the postseason somehow, some way. No wishful thinking is required to believe it.
The Braves still have the best starting rotation in MLB. MVP candidate Ozuna still is anchoring the lineup. Trade deadline addition Jorge Soler has filled a big hole in the outfield (he avoided an IL stint for a hamstring injury suffered last week). And the other contenders for the third NL wild card have at least as many flaws as the injury-riddled Braves.
Riley joins right-hander Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña on the IL. They won’t be back. Riley could return for the playoffs, should the Braves make it. They have a reasonable chance of doing so.
The FanGraphs forecast gave the Braves a 70% chance of earning a wild card after they completed a series victory at the Angels on Sunday. The probability was down to 65% after news of Riley’s injury and a Mets victory Monday. Those are good odds for a team that has never been at full strength this season.
The NL essentially is an eight-team race for six playoff spots. Three teams from the West and Central-leader Milwaukee are virtual locks. The Phillies have been mediocre for three months, but they were so good before then that the Braves won’t catch them in the East.
That leaves the Braves vying with the Mets and Giants for the third NL wild card. I’m excluding the Cardinals because their lineup is not up to snuff. I don’t believe in the Cubs because of their combustible bullpen. The Reds just aren’t ready to be winners.
The pitching edge is the way for the Braves to outkick the Mets and Giants to the finish.
Braves left-hander Chris Sale is the betting favorite to win the NL Cy Young Award. Overperforming right-hander Reynaldo López returned from injury Tuesday. Max Fried’s third start in his return from a forearm injury was better than the first two. Old pro Charlie Morton seems to have made the proper adjustments, and rookie Spencer Schwellenbach has become an effective swing-and-miss pitcher.
The Braves have been resilient. That intangible quality no doubt is one reason why they’re above the wild-card cutoff with three-fourths of the season completed. But the injuries have stymied their efforts at making a run at a seventh consecutive NL East title. The Braves have left a lot of potential wins on the table.
That’s to be expected when their opening-day starter (Spencer Strider) made only one more start and their best hitter (Ronald Acuña) was out of the lineup for good before June. We can try to quantify the impact by looking at the ZiPS projections released by FanGraphs writer Dan Szymborski before the season.
Szymborski’s forecast included an average projected WAR for each player and projected WAR for what essentially are the best- and worst-case scenarios. The production of major leaguers with long track records usually falls within a predictable range of outcomes. Five Braves players have produced below their worst-case ZiPS projections while missing significant time with injuries: Acuña, Riley, Harris, Albies and Strider.
The four position players have missed a combined 73 games because of injuries. Strider has missed about 25 chances to start. Their combined WAR this season are about nine wins below the ZiPS worst case. We can’t assume they would perform up to their usual standards if healthy all season. It’s a good bet that all five players would at least beat their worst-case projections if not for the missed time.
Now the Braves won’t get close to the production they expected from Riley. He’s posted 2.4 WAR this season. His ZiPS worst-case projection was 3.0 WAR. Riley had regained his form after struggles at the plate and an oblique injury during the first two months. The chances were good that he’d be a key part of a Braves run to a wild-card berth.
Now the Braves will have to do it without him. All the injuries their players have suffered this season haven’t broken them. Riley’s injury doesn’t have to be the one that finally does it.
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