This college season is like no other, and we’re speaking less about results than logistics. We don’t have answers yet – Selection Sunday is a month away – but boy, do we have questions. Such as: Who plays who? Who plays where? And, with a nod to the metaphysical, why play if you’d be better off not playing?
· Beating Ole Miss will go a long way toward assuring Georgia a place in the SEC Championship game, which carries the potential benefit of securing a Round 1 bye in the expanded College Football Playoff. But playing for a league title bears a sort of double jeopardy: If you lose your conference final, you won’t get a bye – and you’ll be carrying another loss, which won’t enhance your seeding.
· I know Kirby Smart has no plans to tank in Oxford – coaches don’t think that way, at least not yet – but consider the benefit a loss could impart. The Bulldogs were No. 3 in the committee’s first set of rankings – and as a presumptive conference champ, recipients of a bye and the No. 2 seed in the projected bracket. (So are they No. 2 or No. 3? Welcome to our new world.)
· A loss Saturday would probably keep the Bulldogs from playing in Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Dec. 7 and thereby relegate them to Round 1 in the playoff. It could also keep them from working a non-essential game. The regular season lasts 12 games. A conference title tilt would make 13. The CFP could add three or four. That’s 16 or 17 games. That’s a lot.
· Since Nov. 7, 2020, Georgia is 49-3 overall but 1-2 in the SEC Championship game, both losses coming against you know who. The 2021 defeat did no harm; Georgia made the playoff and beat Alabama for the national title. Last year’s loss knocked the Bulldogs from the final four-team playoff. In our brave new world, not qualifying for the conference title game is a way to guarantee you won’t work a 17th game.
· There’s risk, yes. Only conference champs are assured of a playoff bid, but let’s be real. A 10-2 Georgia with victories over Clemson and Texas won’t miss the playoff. Note that the committee just assigned two-loss Alabama, a loser to Vanderbilt, its No. 11 seed.
· Since the committee has Ole Miss at No. 16 and Tennessee at No. 7, might it be better to lose next week, as opposed to this? I say no. If we go by analytics – the committee obviously didn’t – the Rebels are No. 6 in ESPN’s football power index and No. 4 per Team Rankings. Also: The Tennessee game is in Athens, and a home loss is never ideal. Also: Beating the Vols after losing to Ole Miss would play better, timing-wise.
· And now you’re asking: Isn’t this much ado about not very much? Maybe. But with anything new, it won’t take long for users to game the system. Saving a team a day’s hard work – unless you count some Ivy League schools in the 19th Century, no college team has ever logged 16 games, let alone 17 – would seem an advantage. One extra game is one more chance to lose.
· Could Georgia really lose to Ole Miss? Oh, yes. I’m not sure the Rebels aren’t better than Texas, and this is an elimination game for them. They won’t make the CFP with three losses. They’d make it at 10-2 with a win over Georgia.
· Final thought: If I could be any team today, I’d be Penn State. The Nittany Lions just lost (again) to Ohio State, which means they probably won’t play for the Big Ten title. But they’re No. 6 in the CFP rankings with four should-wins remaining. As it stands, they’d sit home Dec. 7 and plan for a Round 1 game in University Park, Pennsylvania. They’re all but set.
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