One reason the NFL cognoscenti was slow to embrace these Falcons was that in each of their first five games, three of which they won, they trailed in the final minute of regulation. A more generous view might have held that, this being the NFL, we shouldn’t be shocked if a team with a bona fide quarterback wins its share of such games – but not everyone is inclined to be generous.
This also being the NFL, things can and do change. Of the Falcons’ past four games, they’ve held leads of at least 14 points three of the past four. They’ve kept their lead in those three games. They’re 6-3 for the first time since 2016, a season that saw them hold a double-figure lead in the Super Bowl.
Of the 11 teams with six or more wins, they’re 10th in point differential. The Lions have outscored opponents by 110 points; the Falcons have outscored opponents by five points. Are the Lions the better team? So it would seem. Does the Falcons’ record flatter them? I’d say not. You don’t get to 6-3 if you can’t play a little.
The Falcons’ great escapes against Philadelphia, New Orleans and Tampa Bay bought them the sort of burgeoning belief we see in some city every NFL season. A team that hadn’t been very good – the Falcons were coming off six consecutive losing seasons – began compiling evidence to the contrary. Next thing you know, it’s December and that team is playing games that matter.
One thing I’ve learned over 46 years of hanging around pro football teams: Momentum is a bigger deal in the NFL, where teams play once a week, than in MLB, where teams play every day. That sounds counterintuitive, but we say yet again: Momentum in baseball is tomorrow’s starting pitcher. Momentum in football grows in the days when teams aren’t actually playing.
Momentum grows in the locker room, in the weight room, on the practice field. Win a close game or two and your thought isn’t that you got lucky. Your thought is that you’re learning to win. Keep that going for a couple of months and you’ll have tuned out the doubters. You’ll be trotting out the Big Tuna’s money quote: “In the NFL, you are what your record says you are.”
(That’s pretty much true in any sport, though somehow it rings truer in the realm of the shield.)
There’s no great need to revisit Sunday’s game, except to say that the Falcons knew what they were doing – three sacks! – and their opponent did not. They didn’t care that they were facing the famous Dallas Cowboys. The better team carried itself like the better team.
Afterward, Kirk Cousins told reporters of a conversation he’d had with a retired quarterback after Cousins signed to play here. The retiree said: “That could be really fun if you win. That could be a really special place to win.”
Sure enough, they’re winning. They’re having fun. They’re Swag Surfin’. I recall another bunch of Falcons that had a dance, something to do with a bird. That bunch graced a Super Bowl.
No, that isn’t a prediction. Eight games remain, and some opponents that didn’t seem imposing in August – Broncos, Vikings, Chargers, Commanders – look different now. But so do the Falcons. They’ve risen from 1-2 to 6-3. They’re atop their division. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives them an 86% chance of making the playoffs.
I don’t know where these Falcons will wind up. Neither do you. Neither do they. But we can agree that they’ve given themselves a real chance to go somewhere worth going. They are, if you will, riding a wave.
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