When you lose to a team that just fired its coach, it’s a bad loss.
When you lose to a team that just dumped its best defensive back, it’s a bad loss.
When you lose to a team that hasn’t won in eight weeks, it’s a bad loss.
When you lose to a team nursing a three-point lead that makes no fourth-quarter first downs, it’s a bad loss.
When you’re the Falcons and you lose to the Saints, it’s a bad loss.
Did I see this one coming? Nope. Truth to tell, I’m not sure it happened. The Falcons had 85 more yards rushing and 37 more passing. They made one turnover. They punted once on their final nine possessions. They were clearly the better team.
When you’re the better team and you lose, it’s a bad loss.
Bijan Robinson had a good day. Kirk Cousins threw for 306 yards. Had Younghoe Koo missed only half his field-goal tries, the game’s in overtime. If the Falcons handle their final drive a bit better, the game’s in overtime. Given that the Saints mustered 28 fourth-quarter yards, I’d have liked my OT chances.
There was no OT. There was no W. There was only the season’s worst L.
It was a misery-loves-company Sunday. Dan Quinn’s Commanders blew a 10-point lead and jumped offside when the world knew the Steelers were only trying to get them to jump offside. The Texans became the second team ever to intercept five passes and not win. The free-falling Buccaneers saw their opponent miss three field-goal tries but make the one that mattered.
That last bit kept the Falcons’ bad Sunday from being horrendous. They’re still two games ahead of Tampa Bay, over which they hold the tiebreaker. Given the Bucs’ schedule, there’s a chance they’ll finish 6-1. If the Falcons go 4-3, it won’t matter.
Here, though, is where I have a conversation with myself. I say, “Isn’t it possible you’ve overrated the Falcons? You’ve hinted – nay, you’ve said it flat-out – that you believe this team is stout enough to do playoff damage. Isn’t it more likely it’s just the best team in a tepid division?”
I check an old-school leading indicator – point differential – and note the Falcons are 16th in a 32-team league, 10th in the 16-team NFC. I check a more analytic index– Aaron Schatz’s DVOA – and note they’re 14th and eighth, respectively. This suggests they’re pretty good but not great. I concede that, since the Falcons got to 4-2, they’ve lost to fading Seattle and tanking New Orleans. That’s concerning.
But the NFL season lasts 17 games. Even great teams aren’t great every week. There will always be wobbles. The Falcons have had two over the past four weeks. They face a difficult game in Denver this Sunday. Then they get their bye.
Those seeking a quantum of solace can find it in raw numbers and crunched data. A team that has sunk most of its capital into offense is getting its money’s worth. The Falcons rank fifth in yards per game; they’re also fifth in offensive DVOA. They didn’t lose Sunday because they couldn’t move the ball. They lost because a great kicker had the worst day of his professional life.
The Falcons last made the playoffs in 2017. ESPN’s football power index gives them an 87.6% chance of qualifying. That’s progress. Would I put the Falcons in the class of Kansas City and Detroit? No. But they’ve positioned themselves to win their division, and they’re better than they were in September.
They shouldn’t have lost to the Saints, but nobody – except Kansas City, which is 7-0 in one-score games, which is outrageous – wins ‘em all. This was a bad loss. They happen. If they keep happening, I’ll reconsider. But not just yet. I thought this would be a good team. It is. I picked the Falcons to go 11-6. I stand by that.
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