So how good is UGA really? Ask again on Saturday

The College Football Playoff committee dropped Georgia from No. 3 to No. 12, which is worse than it sounds, given that the 12th-ranked team gets bumped to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champ. That’s the bad news.

Here’s the good: The playoff doesn’t begin today.

For Georgia, next week’s rankings will tell the tale. Beat No. 7 Tennessee and they’ll hold wins over three of the committee’s top 20 teams. Saturday’s game will be staged at Sanford Stadium, where the Bulldogs haven’t lost since Oct. 12, 2019. They’re an eight-point favorite. They should win.

ExploreGeorgia adds Trevor Etienne, Cash Jones to injury report; Vols QB listed as questionable

“Should,” though, is a loaded word. Georgia was favored, though not by much, last weekend in Oxford. The first five minutes couldn’t have gone better. The Bulldogs sacked Jaxson Dart on the second snap. They intercepted a pass on the third. They scored a touchdown as Dart was being examined for an ankle injury. What figured to be a difficult task looked almost too easy – until it didn’t.

The Bulldogs didn’t manage another touchdown. They were outscored 28-3 over the final 55-1/2 minutes. They finished with 246 yards. It marked the third time against an SEC opponent Georgia had been held under 300 yards. It won those first two games – against Kentucky and Texas – so maybe we didn’t notice. This time, the world noticed.

The post-reveal teleconference with the CFP committee chair of any year is often a source of amusement, but this week’s session let us know that someone’s paying attention. From Warde Manuel on Tuesday re: Georgia: “Their offense hasn’t been consistent. … They’ve struggled with some turnovers.”

And: “The defense has been solid, although in the loss to Ole Miss we felt that … with the offense struggling the defense was on the field quite a bit.”

And, in case anyone missed the point the first two times: “They have just lacked some consistency on the offensive side.”

The 2023 Bulldogs ranked fifth nationally in total offense. The 2024 edition ranks 50th. Saturday’s game marked the fifth time this season a first half ended with Georgia sitting on seven or fewer points. That’s five times in eight games against FBS opposition.

ExplorePlayoff committee signals to Georgia: Win out and you’re in

Don’t know about you, but I kept looking backward – Georgia was 42-2 over the previous three seasons; it won 29 games in succession, which no SEC team had done – and writing off lesser moments as blips. When something happens five times, we’re no longer dealing in blips. We’re seeing – or we should be seeing – reality.

ExploreGeorgia preparing for multiple scenarios with Tennessee QB in concussion protocol

I submit that two halves – the outrageous second in Tuscaloosa, the overwhelming first in Austin – made it tough to evaluate these Bulldogs. My first thought: See how good they can be when the mood strikes? Over the fullness of time, a second thought occurred: Why does the mood strike so seldom? Why was Georgia tied inside the final five minutes with a bad Florida team working with its No. 3 quarterback?

From Nov. 8, 2020, through Nov. 8, 2024, Georgia went undefeated against every opponent save Alabama. That run ended in Oxford. The Bulldogs weren’t just beaten by a non-Bama entity; they were beaten badly by an Ole Miss that lost to Kentucky and LSU.

Georgia possessions after its first: punt, punt, punt, punt, end of half, field goal, fumble, interception, fumble, failed fourth down. And still the Bulldogs’ worst sequence of a dank day wasn’t the work of its halting offense. With Ole Miss forced to deploy its backup quarterback already down 7-0, Austin Simmons was allowed to take his team 75 yards in 10 plays, completing five of six passes.

We say again: Austin Simmons, a freshman facing his first non-blowout action, blows through Kirby Smart’s defense as if it weren’t there. It could be that Simmons has a Heisman in his future, but this same defense chased Quinn Ewers off the field three weeks earlier. Where’d it go?

ExploreInconsistent play overshadows Georgia’s No. 1 strength of schedule, CFP committee says

The season isn’t done. Beat Tennessee and Georgia is again positioned to make the playoff, and Smart’s Bulldogs are 5-1 in the CFP, and the loss came on a night they didn’t trail until the final snap of OT. That said, mounting evidence suggests these Bulldogs aren’t the irresistible force we’re accustomed to seeing. Warde Manuel didn’t seem to think so, and he’s not alone.