They’re in trouble. After Thursday’s loss in New York, the Braves’ lead for the first wild card has shrunk to a half-game. Their lead for the last wild card is 1-1/2 games. They’re 1-5 since the All-Star break. They’re running low on players. They’re running out of ideas.
With the game tied in the ninth, Whit Merrifield was thrown out trying to steal third base. In the 10th, the Braves sacrificed Ramon Laureano to third. On the next pitch, he was caught between third and home, the Mets having pitched out when Jarred Kelenic squared to bunt. Trouble was, Brian Snitker hadn’t ordered a squeeze.
Snitker: “I don’t know what that was.”
Kelenic: “I was trying to do too much.”
A team that hit a record-matching 307 home runs last season has been reduced to playing small ball, and not very well. Snitker: “If you aren’t scoring at all, you can’t make outs on the bases.”
Chris Sale could hardly have been better – 7-1/3 innings, two hits, one walk, nine strikeouts. The Mets would finish with three hits, the third being a walk-off gift. Pierce Johnson induced Jeff McNeil to lift a fly to right that should have ended the 10th. Expected batting average of this not-mighty blast: .030.
Laureano, stationed in right field, ran past it. “Things like that don’t happen to me,” he said, though this did.
Laureano, cut by Cleveland in May, is playing because Ronald Acuna and Michael Harris can’t. Merrifield, cut by Philadelphia, is here because Ozzie Albies broke his wrist. Max Fried won’t start in this series because of forearm neuritis that arose during his All-Star inning. Randy Arozarena won’t be gracing this clubhouse because Tampa Bay just traded him to Seattle.
A team that has won the NL East six years running is 35-38 since April 30. On June 2, the Braves led the Mets, believed to be rebuilding, by 10 games. If the Mets take two of the next three, they’ll be ahead of an opponent that left spring training in World-Series-or-bust mode.
We pause for the boilerplate disclaimer: Sixty-one games remain. At a similar point in 2021, the Braves were 49-52 – six games behind the first-place Mets, four behind the second-place Phillies. Those Braves – also without Acuna – won the World Series.
That was the year Alex Anthopoulos added four outfielders in July, his motivation being that, as mediocre as his club had been, the NL East remained winnable. The division is all but gone this time; the Phillies have lost five of seven and the Braves haven’t gained an inch. Big-picture-wise, a National League that had four winning teams as of June 6 now has nine.
In June/July, the Mets are 30-15. The Diamondbacks are 28-18, the Pirates 28-19. The Braves are 22-24.
The trade deadline is Tuesday. We know Anthopoulos will do something. It’s fair to ask how much he should do. The Braves have MLB’s fifth-highest payroll. As we speak, they’re on the hook for $200M in 2025; only the Phillies and Yankees are contracted to pay more. Fried and Charlie Morton aren’t expected back. Acuna and Spencer Strider are.
Even if they don’t qualify for postseason, the Braves’ window won’t slam shut. The oldest of their presumed everyday eight – Matt Olson – will be 31 next season. Each of the eight is under team control through 2026. Acuna, Olson, Harris, Kelenic, Austin Riley and Sean Murphy are controlled until at least 2028. (Strider, too.) Forget the buzz of February: This season was never really “World Series or bust.”
At issue is how much capital the Braves should burn on a season that might be beyond fixing. Yes, anything can happen in October. Yes, the past three NL pennants were taken by teams that won 88, 87 and 84 games. (The Braves are on pace to win 87.) Yes, even a well-stocked roster has only so many chances to win it all, but who out there would turn this flagging team into a terror? Fred McGriff retired a while back.
Confession: I never thought we’d be having this discussion. I figured the worst would be became a wild card with a fighting chance. But I never imagined they’d have so many injuries, and I never dreamed so many of the non-injured would stop hitting. I’m no longer sure they’ll be a wild card. Even if they are, I don’t know if they’ll have a real chance.
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