Four Mondays ago, the Falcons awoke holding a two-game lead in the NFC South that, given their sweep of Tampa Bay, was a de facto three-game lead. Kirk Cousins had thrown three touchdown passes – and no interceptions – in a tidy victory over Dallas. His passer rating (144.8) was the second-best of any quarterback that weekend. He and his new team were rolling.
Four weeks later, the Falcons lead their division only because of the tiebreaker. They suffered a bad loss in New Orleans and a wipeout in Denver. Now this. On Sunday, they outgained the opposition by 163 yards. They made 14 more first downs. Their defense held the Chargers without a touchdown and, miracle of miracles, generated five sacks. It is almost impossible to lose such a game.
The Falcons lost because the quarterback they bought for $180 million – not counting a forfeited draft pick and a $250K fine for tampering – threw four interceptions. None were tipped. All fell under the heading of Bad Throws. The second was returned for the Chargers’ winning points. The third was a wishful lob into the end zone. The fourth ended all hope.
The Falcons lost because the man who cannot have a terrible game – your starting quarterback – had a terrible game. Only once in 161 previous NFL games had Cousins thrown four interceptions, that in 2014 in his 10th professional start. Just FYI: Desmond Ridder, whom the Falcons spent a fortune to replace, never threw four INTs in a game.
The new man’s halting performance in the opening loss to Pittsburgh could be ascribed to rust. (Cousins was coming off a torn Achilles.) Over the next eight games, he met positional requirements. He threw for 509 yards and four touchdowns in the first victory over Tampa Bay; he threw for four more TDs in the second. The star-spangled offense was clicking. The team was in first place. Then the team and its QB hit a wall.
His passer rating in Week 8 and 9 wins: 145.9 and 144.8. His rating in the three games since, all losses: 75.1, 68.9 and 40.0. His seasonal rating (90.8) puts him 19th among starters. Not since 2015, his first full season as a starter, has it been so low. Oh, and his 13 interceptions lead the NFL.
And now you’re asking: Do the Falcons have another quarterback? Why, yes. He’s Michael Penix Jr., acquired with the draft’s No. 8 pick a month after the Falcons landed Cousins. The Falcons love Penix’s talent, and now you’re surely wondering: Should the rookie start against Minnesota?
The game against Cousins’ former employer is massive. With Tampa Bay due to face 2-10 Las Vegas, a fourth consecutive loss could drop the Falcons to second place in a division they’d all but won.
The case for sticking with Cousins: He has been a competent starter for a decade. He has never been among the league’s five best quarterbacks, but competence was why, after two years of Marcus Mariota and Ridder, the Falcons flouted rules to hand Cousins $180M. Yes, he has had three bad games. No, he’s not having a great statistical year. Still, he’s an NFL quarterback.
We have no idea if Penix is. He has thrown five professional passes. Whatever the Falcons’ succession plan is, we can assume it didn’t entail a quarterback change in Game 13 of Year 1 with Cousins/Penix. If they lose Sunday and wind up missing the playoffs, they’ll have reason to reconsider. (Cousins is 36 and, as the analytic writer Rivers McCown has noted, non-elite QBs can go sour in a hurry.)
But the Falcons aren’t there yet. They brought Cousins here to win games like this. Here’s where they find out if he can.
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