Let’s pick nits. I’ll start.
· Baker Mayfield threw for 330 yards without his two best receivers.
· He threw 50 passes and, like every quarterback who faces the Falcons, wasn’t sacked.
· Cade Otton was made to look like Gronk.
· Kyle Pitts scored two touchdowns, but I’m not sure the second should have counted.
· The Falcons turned it over only once, but it cost them two points and, had Darnell Mooney not swept the ball out of the end zone, would have cost five more.
· Younghoe Koo doesn’t miss many, but his miss with a minute left undid the drive that should have killed the game.
· A strong effort on the road against their only challenger in the NFC South came down to a Hail Mary, and Sunday reminded us that sometimes – not often, but not never – prayers are granted. And now I’ll stop.
Why, you ask, are we discussing the Falcons’ flaws after a victory that left them in Position A to make the playoffs? Because they DO control their division. Because they ARE duly positioned. Because – unless this thing falls apart, which I don’t think it will – they’re playing for something now.
The Falcons are 5-3 with the tougher part of their schedule behind them. They’ve dropped three home games, yes, but they’re 3-0 on the road, which tells us a lot. They’re 4-2 in one-score games, which tells us they haven’t just been lucky. Were they 6-0 in one-score games, we’d be waiting for the other shoe to drop.
They’re 5-3 after starting 1-2. They’ve won four of five. We worried that, after losing the opener to Pittsburgh, they’d start 0-5. Didn’t happen. We worried after the Seattle fizzle that it might indicate the Falcons had been punching above their weight. Nope. They went to Tampa and tended to business. They’re 4-0 in divisional games, and it’d take some doing to lose in New Orleans or to Carolina anywhere.
But enough about the South. These Falcons have bigger fish to fry. They’re among the six NFC teams carrying five or more wins. They’ve already won at Philadelphia. They’ll face road dates in Minnesota and D.C. in December. They’ve gotten pretty good. They’ll need to get better. They should get better.
The offense has come around. They’re sixth among NFL teams in yards per game. There have been times when the grand design – all these runners and receivers shaking loose, the $180-million quarterback pulling the strings – has become more than wishful thinking. Kirk Cousins is third among NFL players in passing yards. Bijan Robinson is fourth in yards from scrimmage. Drake London is tied for fourth in catches.
The defense is a work in much earlier stages of progress. It has playmakers at the back end, though we wonder how many plays Jessie Bates and A.J. Terrell might make if somebody laid more than an occasional hand on a quarterback. Matthew Judon was imported to bolster the pass rush. He has 1.5 sacks. Now for the really bad news: His 1.5 represents 25 percent of the team’s total.
Given that the Falcons have spent their past four Round 1 picks on offensive players – the most recent on a quarterback not meant to address a pressing need – this roster was always going to be lopsided. This being the NFL, that’s OK. Of the top seven teams in total defense last season, four missed the playoffs. Of the top nine in total offense, one missed the playoffs.
Nine regular-season games remain. The Falcons should be favored in six. They’re looking at, give or take, an 11-win season. Eleven wins gets you into the playoffs. Eleven wins mightn’t earn a bye, but it should win the NFC South – it won’t win the NFC Central – and buy you a home game in Round 1.
We know from history that the Falcons can mess up anything, but these Falcons seem different. They’ve suffered reversals and course-corrected. They’ve made mistakes and won anyway. They’re a good team. They have it within them to become more than good.
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