The Braves have been in just-get-us-to-October mode since Memorial Day. With October in plain sight, this team had a night that reminded us of a truth that had, over a difficult season, been obscured: The Braves are great at getting to October.
From April 28 through Friday’s thudding loss in Miami, this team was 64-64. It’s 3-0 since. That modest stretch has changed dynamics. Suddenly there isn’t just one path to the postseason; owing to the Diamondbacks’ collapse, there are two.
As of Wednesday morning, the Braves trail Arizona by a half-game in the loss column, meaning they could pull even by winning their extra game. In this case, even would mean ahead. The Braves won the season series 5-2.
On Sunday afternoon, they trailed the Snakes by three full games. The Braves were locked in a back-and-forth encounter with the Marlins, while Arizona led Milwaukee 8-0 after 2-1/2 innings and 9-6 in the bottom of the eighth. The D-backs lost 10-9. They’ve since lost two more to San Francisco, having been outscored 17-3.
The Braves won their final game in Miami – Jorge Soler’s infield hit gave them a late lead, which Raisel Iglesias held with a six-out-save – and entered the season’s final week with a fighting chance. One game later, that fighting chance has become a more-probable-than-not thing. As we speak, FanGraphs gives them a 69.8% chance to make the playoffs.
This is Paragraph No. 6, and here we mention that team from Queens for the first time. Over the past two weeks, Braves fans had done little but bemoan the Mets’ pluck/luck. (“HOW did that THROW hit the BAG?”) On Tuesday, the two met for the first time since July. A Super Series was surely at hand, except that the Braves made Game 1 seem routine.
They led 3-0 after three innings. They won 5-1. Michael Harris was again immense. Spencer Schwellenbach went seven innings, yielding three hits, having outdone the veteran Luis Severino, gone after four innings. Iglesias worked a clean ninth for a one-inning non-save. Nothing much to see here, folks, nothing except the Braves doing as they’ve done for decades – master the Mets when it matters.
Tuesday’s game figured to be the most difficult of the scheduled three. (We say “scheduled” because Tropical Storm Helene could impose.) Schwellenbach is a rookie, though already a Mets-killer. His seven shutout innings at Citi Field on July 27 halted a six-game losing streak. The Braves’ next two starters: Chris Sale, who’ll win the Cy Young, and Max Fried, who clinched a World Series.
The Mets can claim a wild card by winning the next two against the Braves, assuming two are played. It’s unclear when Francisco Lindor, who’ll finish second in MVP voting, will play. He’s dealing with a sore back, though he was on deck to pinch-hit when Tuesday’s game ended. Here we count unavailable Braves: Ronald Acuna, Spencer Strider, Austin Riley, Reynaldo Lopez. Injuries – they happen.
As slim as the Braves’ chances might have seemed a few days back, we shouldn’t have forgotten who they are. Since 1990, they’ve graced the postseason 23 times over 32 completed seasons. Only once did they waste a legitimate playoff chance. They went 8-19 in September 2011, squandering an 8-1/2-game lead over St. Louis for the wild card. Game No. 162 was lost in 13 excruciating innings. Craig Kimbrel blew the save.
That was the exception. When the Braves get close, they get in. As is, they hold the National League’s seventh-best record. If by Sunday night they’ve inched up to sixth-best, they’ll have gotten to October. Here’s how the qualifying NL club with the fewest wins has fared the past three postseasons: reached the World Series (2023 D-backs), reached the World Series (2022 Phillies), won the World Series (2021 Braves).
When the Braves get close, they get in. If you get in, you can win.
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