Not for the first time, the Falcons occupy a strange place. They’re leading their division, which nobody expected. They’re 3-4, which is better than we figured. Given their schedule – of 10 remaining games, eight will come against teams holding a losing record – they could go 8-9, which might be enough to win the NFC South.
Rule of thumb: It’s better to make the playoffs than not. Even if your intent wasn’t necessarily to make the playoffs.
The Falcons traded Matt Ryan, their quarterback of 14 seasons, to Indianapolis for a Round 3 pick. They wound up getting the better of the deal. Through seven games, Ryan led the NFL in interceptions and fumbles. This prompted the impetuous Colts owner Jim Irsay to lobby for his benching in favor of Sam Ehlinger, a Round 6 pick who hasn’t thrown an NFL pass. This despite Ryan having engineered four fourth-quarter comebacks in seven games. But enough about the Colts.
The day the Falcons shed Ryan, they added Marcus Mariota, who’d thrown 30 NFL passes in two seasons. In Cincinnati on Sunday, Mariota threw 11 passes in a 60-minute game that saw the Falcons trail 21-0 after 15 minutes and five seconds. This was the clearest indication yet that Arthur Smith, head coach and play-caller, doesn’t trust Mariota’s arm, which generally is the way an NFL quarterback gets benched. (See “Ryan, Matt.”)
The Falcons lost 35-17. Neither side scored over the final 20 minutes. The 3-3 Bengals were glad to ascend to 4-3. The 3-3 Falcons didn’t appear to mind dipping to 3-4, knowing that two of their next three games will match them against Carolina, which just fired its coach and has PJ Walker, an undrafted free agent who worked in the XFL, as its QB.
(Other Carolina QBs under contract: Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield; former Round 1 pick Sam Darnold, who’s on injured reserve; former Georgia Bulldog Jacob Eason, who’s on the practice squad, and Matt Corral, also on IR.)
The Panthers have written off this season, having sent Christian McCaffrey to San Francisco for many draft picks. The Falcons have written off nothing, and they’ve got little left to trade. Among Falcons who started in the Super Bowl on Feb. 5, 2017, only Grady Jarrett remains. Difference is, the club is winning a higher rate (.417) under Smith than in its final two-plus seasons under Dan Quinn (.378), when they hadn’t yet committed to a rebuild.
Smith has propped up a team that no longer has Ryan or Julio Jones or Deion Jones or Devonta Freeman or Todd Gurley or De’Vondre Campbell or Dante Fowler. This propping-up has come at the rank displeasure of fantasy footballers, who can’t understand why the Falcons keep running the ball at the expense of chucking it to Kyle Pitts or Drake London.
The answer: because running the ball is one way – maybe the only way – for a team of limited means to keep games semi-close. Football Outsiders ranks the Falcons last in the league in defensive efficiency. Asking Mariota to throw 40 passes – he hasn’t tried more than 26 since the opener against New Orleans – is the quickest way to lose by 30. Only against the Bengals have these Falcons lost by more than six.
There has been no hint of demoting Mariota, who’s on a one-year contract. The Falcons could exercise their option for a second year, but that only kicks the can down the road. If they want to do more than outperform modest expectations, they’ll require a real quarterback.
Maybe it’s the rookie Desmond Ridder, though nobody has any way of knowing. Of the Falcons’ 150 passes in 2022, all have been delivered by Mariota. Only the Bears have thrown fewer passes than the Falcons.
Smith told reporters this week his team is “lucky” to have “a unique opportunity.” A not-very-good team sits atop a not-very-good division. For the sake of tiebreakers, the Falcons need to spruce up their division record. They’re 0-2. Two games in 12 days against Carolina come at a welcome time.
Those wishing the 2022 Falcons would do no more than position themselves for a windfall draft already have lost hope. Having held their own against the tougher part of their schedule, these Falcons could be set for a bigger, if not quite big, finish. That wouldn’t leave them with a top-five pick. It could leave them with a division title.
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