The Falcons haven’t quite been eliminated, playoff-wise. It’s possible for them to finish 8-9 and still make it, though it would require the Saints and Vikings to lose out and the Eagles and Football Team to split with each other. ESPN’s Football Power Index assigns the Falcons a 1 percent chance of qualifying for postseason. Being wildly optimistic, FiveThirtyEight assesses their odds at 2 percent.
Even if the Falcons crawl onto the playoff grid, the chances of them beating a No. 2 seed on the road would be nil. If we’ve learned anything from 14 games, it’s that they have no shot against anybody any good. Their margins of defeat against plus-.500 teams: 23, 40, 25, 13 and 18 points. They’ve been outscored by 126 points on the season. Even the 2-11-1 Lions, whom the Falcons play next, have a better point differential.
The Falcons play only two types of games. They face somebody of similarly meager talent and win, or they run across an opponent of worth and get destroyed. They’ve won six times, but they’re not far from being 16th-best in the 16-team NFC. Their strength of schedule is the conference’s third-worst; their strength of victory is the worst.
This is their first run under new management, and it’s a tribute to coaching they aren’t 2-12. It’s also a tribute to Matt Ryan, who hasn’t had a great year, statistically speaking, but whose competence has kept this season from being an abomination. These, though, are the Ryan numbers that matter: He turns 37 in May, and he’s under contract through 2023. His cap hit over the next two seasons would be $91 million.
We return to the issue that won’t go away until Ryan goes away. If the Falcons are indeed rebuilding – a win-now team wouldn’t have traded Julio Jones – most rebuilds require a young quarterback. The in-house quarterbacks who qualify as young are Feleipe Franks, who wasn’t drafted, and Josh Rosen, who’s 24 and on his fifth organization.
Five quarterbacks were taken among the top 15 picks in the 2021 draft. There mightn’t be a quarterback drafted in the top 10 come April. The Falcons are projected to have the No. 9 choice. That could be Kenny Pickett of Pitt. (I’ve seen him in person; I like him, though not as much as I liked Ryan back in 2008.)
But could the Falcons, whom Pro Football Focus rated as having the NFL’s thinnest roster, take a quarterback in Round 1 and have him sit as a rookie?
2022 top NFL draft position rankings for quarterbacks:
— Matt Corral, Ole Miss.
— Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh.
— Sam Howell, UNC.
— Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati.
— Malik Willis, Liberty.
— Carson Strong, Nevada.
— Tanner McKee, Stanford.
That Arthur Smith opted to stick with Ryan at least for a bit was understandable. Given substandard teammates, even Trevor Lawrence has seemed overwhelmed. But with another draft upcoming and Ryan’s salary still on the books, the Falcons of Smith and Terry Fontenot must again ask: How long before we try somebody else?
These Falcons could finish 8-9, which was my wobbly guess back in August. That record could be taken as a passing grade – new coach, new GM, same quarterback, no Julio, not much of Calvin Ridley – and they’re not far from .500. Football professionals aren’t apt to be fooled, though. If not for Cordarrelle Patterson, receiver-turned-runner, and Ryan’s astonishing capacity to shrug off every hit, this season could have been a much harder slog.
That said, the Falcons are closer to being terrible than to being good.
On Sunday, their first two possessions began in San Francisco territory. Teed up for a fast start, they were outscored 17-10 and outgained 230 yards to 98 in the first half. The 49ers led 31-13 with 1:17 left in the third quarter. That became the final score. These teams could have worked four more hours and the result wouldn’t have changed.
Ryan has never expressed a desire to play elsewhere. Still, it’s fair to ask how much of an uphill trek back to relevance he cares to endure. It wasn’t until his sixth pro season that Ryan’s Falcons weren’t winners. Since 2012, they’re 63-79. Since 2012, they’ve made the playoffs twice.
He has said he wants to play until he’s 40, but is that what the Falcons want? If not, shouldn’t they get busy about finding a replacement? Would Ryan be willing to mentor a younger quarterback? (Aaron Rodgers didn’t exactly take to the idea.) Could the Falcons keep paying Ryan and add his heir apparent and have enough cash left to fill other roster holes?
Going by wins and losses, Year 1 of Smith/Fontenot hasn’t been wretched. Smith’s rookie season as NFL head coach has gone better than, say, Urban Meyer’s. It would be fascinating to see how this coach might fare with a good team. It could be a while before he has one.
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