Bradley’s Buzz: The one indispensable Brave has a sore elbow

Just last week, we discussed the Braves’ latest way of building and maintaining a team – by awarding longish contracts to youngish position players. There was one exception. That exception might serve to prove the rule.

On Oct. 11, 2022, the Braves signed Spencer Strider, then a 23-year-old rookie, for six seasons at $75 million. It marked the first time Alex Anthopoulos, the team’s GM since November 2017, had lavished a contract of such length/worth on a pitcher. In 2023, Strider made the All-Star team and led the majors in wins and strikeouts. He entered this season as a Cy Young favorite. He mightn’t pitch again this season.

He exited Friday’s start after four difficult innings. An MRI revealed damage of the ulnar collateral ligament, which connects the humerus, the upper-arm bone, to the ulna, one of the two lower-arm bones. This is the most common injury for pitchers, and there’s an easy fix – Tommy John surgery, named after Dr. Frank Jobe’s 1974 test case.

Fifty years later, the procedure is a rite of passage for pitchers. Damaging the UCL is all but inevitable, but the cure tends to be worth it. You miss a year, but you return throwing just as hard if not harder. This happens because you have a new UCL – a tendon borrowed from elsewhere in your body – with zero mileage.

A fascinating Google Doc exists, curated by Jon Roegele. (You can, er, Google it.) It includes baseball players – not just pitchers, though nearly all are – known to have had the surgery. It runs to 2,426 names, the first being Tommy John’s. You’ll find Strider’s name, too. On/about Feb. 1, 2019, the Clemson sophomore had TJS. The Braves chose him in Round 4 of the 2020 draft.

The Braves are sending Strider to see Dr. Keith Meister in Arlington, Texas. If another surgery can be avoided, it would come as an immense relief to both pitcher and team. The list of success stories re: TJS Round 2 is brief. Writing last August, Thomas Harrigan of MLB.com found five: Nathan Eovaldi, Jameson Taillon, Daniel Hudson, Joakim Soria and Chris Capuano.

Harrigan’s companion list of five non-successes included two Braves of recent vintage. On consecutive days in March 2014, Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy walked off a mound in spring training with sore elbows. Each would need a second Tommy John. Neither pitched for the Braves again. Beachy would start two more MLB games; Medlen would start 15.

(Why doesn’t a second TJS work as well? The surgery requires holes to be drilled in the receiving bones. The more you drill, the less the bones like it.)

The best pitcher of the past decade – Jacob deGrom – had a second TJS last June. He’s aiming for an August return. He’ll be 36. No matter how he fares, the Rangers owe him $155M through 2027. If you’re wondering why the Braves of Anthopoulos haven’t lavished massive money on a big-name pitcher, there’s your answer. Big-name pitchers aren’t often available, and if they are, they’re in their 30s.

Trouble is, the Braves spent $75M – not massive money by deGrom/Scherzer/Verlander standards, but hefty for a 23-year-old – because they saw Strider as a bridge to still-distant tomorrows. Max Fried can become a free agent at season’s end. Charlie Morton arrived in 2020 on a one-year deal that keeps getting extended, but he’s 40. Chris Sale, 35, has a long history of injury. If Strider requires another TJS, the bridge will have been compromised.

Strider seemed a sagacious investment. He’s a major talent. He has top-shelf stuff. He became the Opening Day starter for one of baseball’s best teams at 25. For all of that, he’s still a pitcher, and what do we know about pitchers?

They get hurt.

The Braves have a splendid roster – they just swept the reigning NL champs – but they’ve run low on starting pitching. If Strider misses significant time, there’s no ready replacement. No team will send them an ace because no team is out of anything in April. Eight games into a season of great expectations, the one indispensable Brave is headed to Texas for a second opinion. Yikes.

The above is part of a regular exercise available to all who register on AJC.com for our free Sports Daily newsletter. The full Bradley’s Buzz, which includes extras like a weekly poll and pithy quotes, arrives via email around 1:30 p.m. on Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

Go to the AJC.com home page. Click on “Choose from a variety of newsletters” at the top. Click on “Sports Daily.” You’ll need to enter your email address. Thanks, folks.