Everything changed Sunday. The Falcons stopped being a mild disappointment, there being nothing mild about a loss to a 1-12 opponent. A team incapable of winning any division but this one saw its chances of winning the NFC South reduced to 8.7 percent, according to ESPN’s football power index.
That’s 8.7 percent with three games remaining.
That’s 8.7 percent in a division with nobody above .500.
That’s 8.7 percent after 14 games against a ridiculous schedule.
Everything changed Sunday. A team that for much of the season seemed the definition of mediocrity was revealed as not even that. Of the Falcons’ six wins, only one has come against a team that holds a winning record, that being the Texans at 8-6. Of their eight losses, six were against sub-.500 opposition. They’ve played almost nobody. They’ve beaten almost nobody.
Before Sunday, it was possible – OK, barely possible – to view the Falcons as maddeningly erratic. Truth is, they’re consistently lousy. They were favored in their past seven games. (Has there ever been a team this bad that was the betting choice so often?) They contrived to lose five. The aggregate record of the five teams that just beat Arthur Smith’s – 23-47.
Six teams have been eliminated from playoff competition. The Falcons have played five. They’ve lost to four.
This schedule stood to be the Falcons’ salvation. After losing to the league’s worst team, no glass can be made to look half-full. Imagine this team against a garden-variety NFL slate. It wouldn’t be 6-8. It’d be 3-11 and Smith would be gone.
Forgive me if I speak with the fervor of the newly converted. Until Sunday – what can I say? I’m a slow learner – my default position was as it had been since July. The Falcons, I believed, had sufficient talent to win the world’s worst division. Today I quote Steve Spurrier, my role model in all things: “They get all these good players; I don’t know what happens to them.”
The Falcons have the fourth player picked in the 2021 draft, the eighth players chosen in 2022 and 2023. Those three – Kyle Pitts, Drake London and Bijan Robinson – touched the ball 13 times Sunday, accounting for 75 yards. Carolina’s Chuba Hubbard, the 126th player taken in 2021, had 24 touches for 103 yards.
London ranks 35th among NFL players in times targeted; Pitts ranks 50nd. Robinson ranks 13th in catches/carries, one spot below Hubbard. If you spend that much draft capital on skill players, it’d be prudent to feature such skill.
The Robinson pick was, we assumed, predicated on the in-house conviction that Desmond Ridder, a Round 3 quarterback, was good enough to run an NFL offense. (Are the Falcons running an NFL offense? Discuss among yourselves.) The more Ridder plays, the worse he looks.
In four games since reclaiming the starting job, he has managed a passer rating above 80 once. On the season, he has thrown 10 touchdown passes against 10 interceptions. He has taken 31 sacks. He has lost six fumbles. He ranks 24th in ESPN’s QB ratings – behind Sam Howell and Justin Fields, ahead of Kenny Pickett and Mac Jones.
The Falcons have played 48 games under Smith. They’ve won 20. They’ve won three times by double figures, most recently against Carolina in Week 1. They’ve scored 30 points three times, most recently last season. They’ve never scored more than 30. Over the past 15 days, the Falcons won 13-8 and lost 9-7. For the record, Smith is both head coach and play-caller.
There was a time it seemed Smith’s forte was in keeping games close. But now, with the Falcons’ past four losses coming on scores inside the final 31 seconds, we reverse the sentiment. Is this coach’s ability to turn every game into a coin flip a blessing or a curse?
Here we insert the-season-isn’t-over disclaimer. Still, the final three weeks bring opponents who are 8-6, 5-9 and 7-7. The Falcons just lost to a team bound for 1-16. That changed everything. I imagine it will change the job security of some who work in Flowery Branch.
The above is part of a regular exercise available to all who register on AJC.com for our free Sports Daily newsletter. The full Buzz, which includes extras like a weekly poll and pithy quotes, arrives via email around 1:30 p.m. on Monday, Wednesday and Friday.
Go to the AJC.com home page. Click on “Choose from a variety of newsletters” at the top. Click on “Sports Daily.” You’ll need to enter your email address. Thanks, folks.
About the Author
