NORTH PORT, Fla. — The news from Ronald Acuña Jr.’s first media session of spring training was that his recovery from his second ACL tear was going well.
“I’m running fast, maybe 90, 95%,” Acuña said Friday morning. “I feel great. That’s my attitude.”
That was among the many hopeful statements that Acuña made about his health and the season ahead.
Among others:
“I feel much better (than a year ago at this time). I feel more stable when I hit, when I run.”
Of the outfield of himself in right field, center fielder Michael Harris II and left fielder Jurickson Profar: “We can play offense, defense. For me, I think it’s the best outfield in baseball.”
So, pencil in the 2023 National League MVP for another season of 40 home runs and 70 stolen bases?
That would seem the riddle that’s about to be answered.
Returning from major knee surgery, how close can Acuña come to reaching his sky-high ceiling?
And can he restrain his competitive will for his own sake?
In mid-February, they’re questions without answers. Of the latter, the superstar acknowledged the tension himself.
In one moment, Acuña said that “I need to take it easy. Stay healthy, I can play whatever I want.”
And in the next, he said that it would be hard to refrain from stealing bases and testing the integrity of his surgically repaired knee ligament with explosive force.
“I don’t know what happens when I get on base,” he said. “It’s hard when I get on base because I want to go. I want to go to second, I want to go third. That’s what I do.”
(Acuña, who has spoken with media almost exclusively in his native Spanish, admirably conducted the interview in English. He told team interpreter Franco Garcia “Franco, you lost your job” to laughs.)
President of baseball operations and general manager Alex Anthopoulos knows what he has on his hands. Also speaking Friday, he was asked if he thought the “take it easy” strategy had sunk in with Acuña.
“Ehhhh,” said Anthopoulos, sounding unconvinced. “Knowing Ronald, he’s saying that now, but he’s so competitive, and once he gets out on the field — even the last time he came back, he ran really well.”
What risk is Acuña absorbing if he pushes his limits?
And regarding how well he can play, it’s almost a given that he won’t be at the stratospheric level he reached in 2023. For one thing, no one had ever done what he did when he hit 41 home runs and stole 73 bases, the first 40/70 season in history. For another, before his injury last year, Acuña was having a tough time, hitting .250 with a .716 OPS in 49 games, the former matching his career low and the latter a career low He had four home runs in 222 plate appearances, far below his career rate.
Credit: HYOSUB SHIN / AJC
Credit: HYOSUB SHIN / AJC
The analytics projections for 2025 are interesting, apparently taking into account that he is returning from an ACL tear but also that he may be at his peak in his age-27 season.
The ZIPS model, for example, projects Acuña to hit .294 with 26 home runs and 36 stolen bases with a .393 on-base percentage in 121 games. They track fairly closely with his career averages and rates for home runs and stolen bases.
The Braves are doing what they can to give Acuña a greater chance at a better season, proceeding through his rehab with caution.
After his first tear in 2021, his first game back was 9½ months after the injury. This time, when he passes the 9.5-month mark in mid-March, Acuña likely will have yet to even play in a spring training game. The Braves’ plan is to hold their most precious asset out of all of their spring training games and not have him on the opening-day roster. That means that, at the 10-month mark, he likely won’t even have started his rehab assignment.
“The fact that we’re going to give him that much more time we think should be good for him and his performance,” Anthopoulos said. “I don’t want to make any predictions in terms of numbers and so on, but I think his floor is what he did the last time, with the ceiling clearly well beyond that.”
On Friday, Acuña offered a reminder of that ceiling. Taking batting practice at CoolToday Park, Acuña rocketed line drives across the outfield. The ball truly sounds different coming off his bat compared with others.
Acuña’s case mirrors so much of where the Braves are. Spencer Strider has been one of the game’s top starting pitchers, but is coming back from elbow surgery. Chris Sale just won the Cy Young Award, but is about to turn 36. First baseman Matt Olson set a club record with 54 home runs in 2023, but followed that with 29 in 2024. Anthopoulos signed Profar coming off his first All-Star season, banking that the power he showed in 2024 (career-high 24 home runs) was the start of a trend and not a blip.
Like Acuña, there’s reason for confidence but questions if you care to look.
“My goal for this year, I’m going to stay healthy and help the team,” Acuña said. “That’s it. I want to stay healthy. When I stay healthy, I can do everything.”
May it be so.
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