On the evening of Nov. 9, in a crowded postgame news conference underneath the Vaught-Hemingway Stadium stands, a rain-soaked Kirby Smart framed the season optimistically after his team had just gotten hammered by Ole Miss.
“It’s tough, but you know what?” the Georgia coach asked. “Our future’s in front of us.”
While hopefully everyone’s future is in front of them, Smart’s assertion that all of Georgia’s season goals were still attainable seemed only technically accurate.
Defeated 28-10 by Ole Miss, the Bulldogs did not look like a national championship contender. And with two SEC losses, Georgia’s chances of playing for the conference title also appeared bleak. Further, with an upcoming game against a one-loss Tennessee team, a third loss figured to scrub the Bulldogs out of the College Football Playoff picture.
But, three weeks later, Smart’s vision rings true. The season did not end in Oxford, Mississippi. Moreover, the path in front of Georgia looks more inviting than anyone might have guessed after the drubbing by the Rebels.
Just about everything that the Bulldogs could want, namely a nearly risk-free shot at the SEC title and a first-round bye in the CFP, is attainable. For a team that has its warts, has slogged through its share of inconsistent play and very nearly absorbed what would have been a costly loss to Georgia Tech on Friday night at Sanford Stadium, UGA can’t ask for much more.
The 12 games of the regular season leave doubts about Georgia’s fitness to win its third national title in four years. But the Bulldogs do have a postseason run teed up for them.
Here’s how cleanly things have fallen into place for Georgia.
Two Saturdays ago, the Bulldogs found themselves in the SEC title game after a trio of upsets fell into place like a combination lock. This past Saturday, their fortune improved even further. While the potential reward of an SEC title and the accompanying first-round bye in the CFP was thought to be counterbalanced by the risk of a third loss that could put the Bulldogs out of the 12-team field, results this past Saturday appear to have largely eliminated that jeopardy.
With a spot in the SEC title game on the line, No. 3 Texas withstanding No. 30 Texas A&M has ensured the Bulldogs a stronger résumé than if the Aggies had won. Should UGA fall to the Longhorns, the Bulldogs’ ledger will be distinguished by the fact that they defeated the SEC champions on the road in convincing fashion. It may not make the Bulldogs an absolute lock to get into the 12-team field – what happens if Georgia loses in a rout? – but it would add to a convincing case in the event of a loss to Texas.
Two more upsets – No. 2 Ohio State and No. 6 Miami’s choke jobs against Michigan and Syracuse, respectively – also aided the Georgia cause. Both will likely fall below Georgia in the next CFP ranking, to be issued Tuesday night. Again, in the event of a Georgia loss in the SEC title game, that could be enough of a boost to still land the Bulldogs a home game in the first round of the playoffs.
ESPN CFP expert Heather Dinich’s projection after Saturday’s games – one that calls for a Texas win over Georgia – slots the Bulldogs as the No. 7 seed against No. 10 Indiana at home in the first round of the CFP with the winner getting No. 2 seed Texas. What Bulldogs fan wouldn’t take the first-ever playoff game at Sanford as a consolation prize for losing at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Saturday?
And that’s only if the Bulldogs lose to Texas. With a win over the Longhorns, the Bulldogs could go into the CFP as the No. 2 seed behind No. 1 Oregon if the Ducks take care of No. 4 Penn State in the Big Ten title game. That would mean a bye in the first round and a quarterfinal matchup in the Sugar Bowl on New Year’s Day. (By CFP rules, a conference champion that has earned one of the top four seeds will be assigned to a particular bowl game for the quarterfinal if the conference and bowl have a historic relationship, as the SEC does with the Sugar Bowl. The Peach Bowl at MBS, also on New Year’s Day, figures to host the ACC champion.)
If it did earn the No. 2 seed, that would mean Georgia would face the 7/12 winner in New Orleans to play for a spot in the semifinals. Again, for a team that had fallen to No. 12 after the loss to Ole Miss, meaning at that point it would have been out of the playoffs, it’s a fortuitous position.
This isn’t to say that Georgia sat on the couch while events beyond their control fell in their favor. The Bulldogs did beat Tennessee, UMass and Tech. However, of the 11 teams ranked ahead of UGA in the Week 12 top 25, seven have since lost (one of them, Tennessee, at Georgia’s hands).
And there is reason to believe that victory is within reach against Texas. Georgia will be playing a team that it already defeated on its home turf, this time in an environment that will be familiar and almost certainly pro-Bulldogs but new and potentially treacherous for the Longhorns.
Georgia will have to negotiate arguably the SEC’s best defense and a hot running back in Quintrevion Wisner and not play like it did for the first three quarters against Tech. But we’re not talking about scaling Mount Everest. ESPN’s metrics assign the Bulldogs a 38.5% probability of winning. Bet against Smart and the Bulldogs at your peril.
And that’s where Georgia stands – possessing an advantageous path, but now needing to capitalize. And that’s the rub. Even at 10-2 and worthy of a top-five ranking, Georgia hasn’t definitively shown that it won’t drive into a ditch.
On a Sunday teleconference to preview the SEC title game, Smart was asked about areas where he wants to see improvement over the last few games.
Smart’s response: “The list is too long.”
A microcosm of Georgia’s season: Tech and Alabama both hit their season highs for total offense against an FBS opponent against the Bulldogs. (The Jackets reached it by the end of regulation.) But Georgia also held Texas and Florida to their season lows for total offense and Tennessee to its second- lowest output by a yard.
Two areas where Georgia has typically been strong – running the ball and stopping the run – have been lacking. Since taking a 23-0 halftime lead over Texas en route to their 30-15 win, the Bulldogs have been outscored 63-30 in the first half by Florida, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Tech.
Nearly every team in the country would happily trade places with Georgia. Whether the Bulldogs can seize that opportunity will define the season.
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