To reach the College Football Playoff, Georgia traveled a path rife with snares, steep climbs and not enough rest stops.
But the reward is a route to the championship game that might be the tidiest of any of the 12 competitors.
Especially in a year in which powerhouses have been humbled regularly, it does not guarantee that Georgia will even make it out of its quarterfinal in the Sugar Bowl against either Notre Dame or Indiana on the evening of Jan. 1. But a team that may well be without starting quarterback Carson Beck will accept any available advantages. The Bulldogs could hardly ask for better bracket positioning than the one they’ve been given.
Let’s start with who Georgia wouldn’t have to play to reach the final – Oregon, Texas, Ohio State or Tennessee. In order of CFP ranking (as opposed to seeding), that’s Nos. 1, 3, 6 and 7. All of them are on the side of the 12-team bracket opposite Georgia’s.
Oregon is the top seed and favorite. Texas took the Bulldogs to overtime in the SEC championship and Georgia likely would not want to have to beat the Longhorns for a third time this season. Ohio State might have the most talent of any team in the field. Tennessee probably wouldn’t scare Georgia. But if it it’s in the championship game, that means it would have beaten both Ohio State on the road and Oregon to get there, which would be proof enough that it could topple the Bulldogs in a rematch.
Those are concerns that coach Kirby Smart won’t have to worry about unless the Bulldogs reach the final, which is a trade he’d be happy to make.
Georgia is the beneficiary of such an advantageous path because of an elaborate conspiracy that was plotted in a late-night meeting of executives with the SEC, ESPN, Nike, the American Kennel Club and the red dye lobby in a secret bunker beneath a Macon Waffle House.
Only kidding – why would Oregon-loving Nike pull strings for the Bulldogs?
Actually, the imbalance is due to the seeding protocol for the CFP, which reserves the top four seeds for the four highest-ranked conference champions.
As a result, for instance, Mountain West champion Boise State is ranked ninth but has the No. 3 seed because it has the third highest ranking of any conference champion. Meanwhile, Texas is ranked third but because it was not a conference champion, dropped down to the No. 5 seed, the highest seed available to a team that didn’t win its conference.
So the teams on No. 2 Georgia’s side of the bracket, in order of ranking, are No. 4 Penn State, No. 5 Notre Dame, No. 8 Indiana, No. 9 Boise State and No. 10 SMU.
But, even beyond rankings, the Bulldogs’ potential opponents in the quarterfinals and semifinals have some holes. Let’s start with the two teams they could face in the Sugar Bowl, seventh-seeded Notre Dame and No. 10 seed Indiana.
Here’s the thing about Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish have won a lot of games convincingly, including a 31-13 win over Georgia Tech at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. (The same Yellow Jackets who took the Bulldogs to eight overtimes, although Notre Dame faced Tech when quarterback Haynes King was sidelined with a shoulder injury. Luck of the Irish indeed.)
Notre Dame can mash teams with the run, an area where Georgia has had difficulty. However, the Irish have run up their 11-1 record against a slate of relative lightweights. Seven of their 12 opponents are ranked 72nd or lower in the Sagarin ratings. They didn’t face any of the other 11 CFP teams and only one team in the final CFP top 25 (Army, which they did beat handily).
Notre Dame could still run the Bulldogs out of the Superdome. But Georgia would be Notre Dame’s sternest test of the season, and it’s hardly clear how the Irish would measure up on that stage in what would be the biggest game of coach Marcus Freeman’s career.
Indiana’s 11-1 record is even more questionable than Notre Dame’s. The Hoosiers don’t beat themselves with penalties or turnovers and are ranked No. 2 in FBS in total defense, but it certainly helped that they lined up against terrible offenses on a near-weekly basis.
Of the FBS’ 40 lowest-ranked teams in total offense, Indiana faced eight of them plus an FCS opponent. In the Hoosiers’ only test against a team in the final CFP Top 25, they were handily defeated by Ohio State.
Indiana’s best win was over a 7-5 Michigan team, and that was a one-score game at home. If the Hoosiers were to reach New Orleans, it means they’ll have taken out Notre Dame, but you’d still like the Bulldogs’ chances.
Georgia’s potential semifinal opponents are Boise State, Penn State and SMU. You could ask the same questions about those three that you could of Notre Dame and Indiana, albeit not in a Midwestern accent.
Boise State beat No. 24 UNLV (twice) and lost narrowly to No. 1 Oregon. Penn State beat No. 20 Illinois and also lost a one-possession game to the Ducks (and also to Ohio State). SMU’s crowning achievement might be three-point losses to No. 16 Clemson and No. 17 BYU, though the Mustangs did beat a good Louisville team on the road.
In short, it’s not clear that any of them can beat a team the caliber of Georgia.
Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty might be the best player in college football, but the Broncos would be hard pressed to prevail in a four-quarter fight with the more talented Bulldogs.
Penn State has a 1-15 record against AP or CFP top-five teams under coach James Franklin. Smart is 11-6. Choose wisely.
And if the best the Mustangs have done this season is lose by a close margin against two top-20 teams, what reason is there to think they’d do better against the No. 2 team?
Of course, this is all conjecture, and UGA may not be the same team if quarterback Gunner Stockton is at the helm of the offense as opposed to Beck.
Regardless, after a season that has taken turn after unpredictable turn, the Bulldogs have a straightforward path in front of them. They could not ask for more.
