NEW ORLEANS — If you’re a Georgia fan who wants to return to a football mindset after Wednesday’s tragedy, we’ve got something to nibble on.
The first three College Football Playoff quarterfinals gave evidence of something I suspected could happen — that the vast difference in layoff time between the teams that played in the first round and those that had byes could be advantageous for the former.
Maybe the sample size is too small, but it doesn’t bode well for Georgia in its CFP quarterfinal against Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl on Thursday afternoon.
In the first quarters of the first three quarterfinals, the teams that won their first-round games (Penn State, Texas and Ohio State) overwhelmed their opponents that had byes (Boise State, Arizona State and Oregon, respectively) en route to victory.
It strongly suggested that the teams that played in the first round were sharper and more ready to play, exactly what you would expect when one team played less than two weeks ago and the other hadn’t played in almost four weeks.
The combined first-quarter totals (Penn State, Texas and Ohio State totals listed first):
Scoring: 42 vs. 3
Yardage: 452 vs. 195
Explosive plays (pass plays of 15-plus yards and run plays of 10-plus yards): 12 vs. 4
Moreover, Texas scored on a 75-yard punt return for a touchdown and the Nittany Lions, Longhorns and Buckeyes all hit touchdown passes of 23 yards or longer.
Ohio State blitzed Oregon with touchdown pass plays of 45 and 42 yards to take a 14-0 first-quarter lead. The Ducks defense had given up only four passes of 40 or more yards in their first 13 games of the season, according to CFBStats data.
Further, three of the bye-earning teams’ four explosive plays were only barely such — runs of 10, 11 and 12 yards.
Would this be a good time to mention that Georgia coach Kirby Smart places high value on his offense creating and his defense limiting explosive plays as analytics have indicated they have a high correlation with winning?
The first-quarter dominance is even more compelling when contrasted with the teams’ production in the final three quarters and the overtime of the Texas-Arizona State game.
Points: 69 vs. 63
Yardage: 755 vs. 958
Explosive plays: 20 vs. 25
The first quarters of each game obviously influenced how the remainders of the games were played, but the results could be interpreted to mean that the games were fairly even once the teams with the longer layoffs shook off their rust.
To repeat: Notre Dame last played Dec. 20, 13 days ago as of Thursday. Georgia’s most recent game was in the SEC Championship game win over Texas on Dec. 7, 26 days ago. That’s a substantial difference.
It appears to be quite the irony — the supposed benefit of the first-round bye for winning conference championships ultimately proving a curse.
It has been on Smart’s mind.
Even before his team left Athens for New Orleans, he said of the extended layoff that “It’s really just hard to manage, hard to deal with, in terms of that space and how you keep your players in shape but in football shape and game shape.”
At his Tuesday news conference with Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman, Smart was asked about which team had the advantage — the Bulldogs because they’d been able to rest longer or the Fighting Irish because they wouldn’t have as much rust?
Smart responded that it “depends on who wins,” and went on to offer the pros and cons of both sides.
“But there is a level of concern when you haven’t tackled and gone live,” he said.
Practices with live tackling are standard at Georgia, but Smart said that with losses to the transfer portal and the injury risk of such physical practices, “you just can’t afford to not have depth at practice like you really want to practice.”
Smart added that the staff had studied the results of NFL playoff games between teams that had first-round byes vs. those that had not to try to get a sense of what they might be facing. He wouldn’t have done that if he didn’t think it could be a factor.
Further, Georgia will carry the likely jeopardy of having a quarterback (Gunner Stockton) making his first career start. No one would be surprised if he were shaky in his first couple of possessions, giving Notre Dame a chance to take an early lead. Against a team of the Fighting Irish’s strength, that could be all the head start they need to hold off the Bulldogs.
Two points of balance: Penn State, Texas and Ohio State were all favorites — the Nittany Lions and Longhorns by double digits. In that perspective, it’s no surprise that they won by taking early leads. And, again, it’s only three games.
On the other hand, the first-quarter advantage that each established was striking (especially compared with the remainder of the games), and there’s a logical explanation behind it. It probably didn’t sit well with Smart as the first three quarterfinals unfolded.
The Bulldogs are hardly fated to follow the pattern set by Boise State, Arizona State and Oregon. But they may find it difficult to avoid.
What Smart needs to do is to lobby CFP officials to just start the game in the second quarter.
