For now, let’s just assume that the parade of ineptitude that the Falcons subjected their fans to Sunday was the result of jitters, rust and whatever else the team throws out there as explanations for the offense’s anemic performance in the 18-10 loss to the Steelers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
It was quarterback Kirk Cousins’ first game since October in his return from a ruptured Achilles tendon. It was the first time that offensive coordinator Zac Robinson had called plays in a regular-season game.
There were too many Steelers fans. The presence of former Falcons coach Arthur Smith on the Pittsburgh sideline (where he served as offensive coordinator) was unnerving. Players were consumed with worry over how owner Arthur Blank can turn a profit when the prices for beer and hot dogs are just so darned low.
Let’s give the Falcons the benefit of the doubt and a mulligan, as the alternative – that this offense actually is as incapable as it looked Sunday and we’re doomed to four months of this – probably is more than all of us can bear at the moment. (Though presumably Smith, fired as Falcons head coach in January after three seasons, probably could be talked into tolerating it.)
That said, the loss – and particularly the offense’s tepid display – has put the Falcons in a box. They really can’t afford to lose either of the next two games, which, unfortunately for them, are on the road against the team favored to win the NFC East (Philadelphia) and at home against the two-time defending Super Bowl champion (Kansas City).
As of Tuesday, the Falcons were 6.5-point underdogs to the Eagles for their Monday night matchup and, barring unforeseen circumstances, most assuredly will be home underdogs to the Chiefs in Week 3.
Should the Falcons lose both, they will be 0-3, and 0-3 is a wasteland from which few inhabitants escape. Since the NFL expanded to a 16-game season in 1978, there have been 208 teams that started the season 0-3, according to Stathead. Of that sorry band, six recovered to make the playoffs, including only one in this century.
So beating the Eagles or Chiefs – or, unfathomably, beating both – is something of a near must.
A few caveats – the Falcons’ outlook at 0-3 would be about as bright as could be hoped for from any team in that headlock. The playoff field is larger than in the past, and the regular season is now 17 games, which would allow the Falcons one more game to rally than past 0-3 teams.
Also, the Falcons are in the NFC South, where the challenge of winning the division is less like climbing Mount Everest and more like scaling Stone Mountain. (A record of 8-9 won it in 2022 and 9-8 did the job last season.) If they do indeed start 0-3, none of the losses will have been to a division opponent.
And perhaps an 0-3 start in this situation – the first game for a new coaching staff and a quarterback coming back from a season-ending injury, Monday night on the road against a potential Super Bowl contender and then the defending Super Bowl champions on a short week – is not quite as condemning as other teams’ 0-3 starts. The Falcons could play well in the next two weeks and still be 0-3.
Regardless, six of 208 (that’s 2.9%) is a trend that’s hard to ignore. It’s not where a team that has spent heavily and placed high expectations on this season would want to be. You may recall that the Falcons’ last postseason berth was in 2017.
After letting an entirely winnable game slip through their fingers, coach Raheem Morris, Robinson and Cousins have to do better than 10 points and 226 yards, which is what the Falcons offense scraped up against the Steelers. Among the very last things that Morris wants to do is answer questions about the possibility of first-round pick Michael Penix Jr. replacing Cousins, he of the contract with $100 million guaranteed and the stamp of franchise quarterback.
Given Cousins’ excellent performance in preseason practices and the way he has assumed leadership of the locker room, it’s difficult to conceive of that scenario coming to pass. But if Cousins doesn’t play more like the version of himself that has made four Pro Bowls and less like the one who was responsible for two interceptions and a fumble lost on a poorly executed snap, the day might be coming.
After the game, questions arose about the health of Cousins’ Achilles and how it might be limiting the Falcons offense. According to ESPN, citing NFL Next Gen Stats, Cousins moved an average of 3.1 yards per dropback in the game, which was his least movement per dropback in a single game in his NFL career by more than a yard.
The Falcons played out of the shotgun or pistol nearly exclusively – something you might do if you lacked confidence in your quarterback’s agility – which seemed to limit the offense’s options. On Monday, Morris said that Cousins’ health status did not influence the game plan as “we’ve been doing the same thing since he’s been here, and that’s how we planned on playing.”
That doesn’t explain, though, why the Falcons had 22 shotgun snaps and didn’t have a single designed run out of that formation while also running 21 times out of 26 pistol snaps, according to ESPN, seemingly exploitable patterns. The Falcons gained 175 yards on 29 plays in the first half – 6.0 yards per play – but added only 51 yards on 21 plays – 2.4 yards per play – in the second half.
It also doesn’t explain why Robinson didn’t do more to help right tackle Kaleb McGary as he floundered all afternoon against T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh’s game-wrecking outside linebacker.
Either the Falcons are having to protect Cousins’ Achilles and are loathe to admit it or their fully operational offense (albeit with a rusty quarterback) could score only 10 points. Neither possibility stirs hope. (The defense, under the direction of new defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake, was quite good, though.)
Maybe it was just one forgettable game. Regardless, Morris and his team need to give a much better account of itself quickly. The 0-3 bogeyman lurks.
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