Eagles, Chiefs drafts compared with Falcons' picks explains a lot

But take a look at what the two teams who’ll be playing for the Lombardi Trophy on Sunday did that year despite being slotted much lower in the draft order than the Falcons.

With two first-round picks, the Kansas City Chiefs selected cornerback Trent McDuffie, who earned first-team All-Pro status in 2023, and defensive end George Karlaftis, who was picked 30th and has more career sacks (24.5) than all but one player taken that year.

The second round brought them safety Bryan Cook, who has been a dependable piece with 30 career starts. In the third round, the Chiefs chose linebacker Leo Chenal, who was rated the No. 5 linebacker in the NFL this season by Pro Football Focus.

The seventh round netted the Chiefs three players who, improbably, remain on the roster and are contributors. Kansas City has entrusted running back Isiah Pacheco with 30 career starts, which is more than seven of the Falcons’ eight 2022 draftees (London being the exception). All eight were chosen before him.

As for the Philadelphia Eagles, their first-round pick (13th overall) was defensive tackle Jordan Davis from Georgia, who this year was an integral piece of a unit that ranked first in the NFL in total defense. Their second-round pick was center Cam Jurgens, who was selected to the Pro Bowl this season in his second year as a starter.

Their third-round selection was another former Bulldog, linebacker Nakobe Dean, rated this season as the No. 13 linebacker in the NFL by PFF. According to Pro Football Reference, he has played more than three times as many defensive snaps in his career (1,074) as Falcons outside linebacker DeAngelo Malone (308), who was selected one pick ahead of Dean.

In fairness, of his four years running the Falcons draft, Fontenot has had better yields than 2022. The 2023 class headed by running back Bijan Robinson and guard Matthew Bergeron might be his best so far.

And the Eagles and Chiefs probably got lucky on some picks. Kansas City’s draft class simply is phenomenal.

But the results are what they are. Consider this:

The Falcons’ 2022 picks still on the team combined for 23 starts this season with 2,237 offensive or defensive snaps.

Eagles: 61 starts, 3,080 snaps.

Chiefs: 82 starts, 4,792 snaps.

When the sum of Fontenot’s four years of draft work is compared against the Eagles and Chiefs — the types of teams that the Falcons ostensibly are aiming to be — in the same four-year span, it’s easy to understand why two of those teams are in the Super Bowl again and the third failed to make the playoffs for the seventh year in a row.

“The first-round picks have been pretty good,” CBS Sports draft analyst Ryan Wilson told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “It’s once you get past that …”

From Fontenot’s four drafts, 22 of 31 draftees (71%) are either on the Falcons’ roster or are on injured reserve. In the same window, the Chiefs have 24 of 30 (80%) on the roster or an injured list. The Eagles have 23 of 30 (77%).

The percentages aren’t too different (although the Falcons still lag the Chiefs and Eagles). But there’s a few points to consider. First, it would stand to reason that making and staying on the roster of a team that has won back-to-back Super Bowls and has made the playoffs 10 consecutive seasons (Kansas City) or is 39-12 in the past three seasons (Philadelphia) would be more difficult than the roster of a team that hasn’t had a winning season since 2017 (your Falcons).

Second, despite that apparent hurdle, the Chiefs and Eagles also outperformed the Falcons despite picking after them in most rounds.

And, perhaps most important, the quality of the Kansas City and Philadelphia selections from those four drafts that remain on the roster is measurably higher than the Falcons’ rostered draftees.

The Eagles cohort includes four players who were named either to a Pro Bowl or the NFL’s annual Top 100 players list a total of seven times. The Chiefs have three players who either went to a Pro Bowl or were named first-team All-Pro a combined six times. The Falcons have two draftees — Robinson and tight end Kyle Pitts — who have made the Pro Bowl once each.

The Chiefs have 10 players from the past four draft classes who started at least 10 games this season. The Eagles have nine and the Falcons have four.

And, again, it can be quite reasonably argued that starting for the Chiefs or Eagles is a higher bar.

Having a franchise quarterback is immensely important. But drafting well — identifying players who can help and develop into productive players at a fraction of the cost of veteran free agents — most surely is part of the equation, too.

“When you don’t have those guys to fill the cracks between the first-, second-, third-rounder and the quarterback situation is in flux, that’s where it gets you to where you are,” said Wilson, who co-hosts the podcast “With the First Pick.”

For the Falcons, this drafting mediocrity matters all the more now that they appear to have the right quarterback in place in Michael Penix Jr.

If he becomes the elite quarterback that it looks like he can be, he’ll raise the Falcons’ floor. However, the ceiling will depend heavily on what kind of talent the team can put around him, especially through the draft.

Held up against the highest standards, Fontenot’s drafts don’t form an encouraging pattern. And if that doesn’t change, the Falcons can probably expect to continue leaving the Super Bowl to others.