Georgia and Georgia Tech share the national stage Saturday, both playing in games that could jostle the College Football Playoff picture one way or another.
Could the chaos that has defined this season infiltrate both games? The rankings and point spreads would suggest not, but the pattern of the season might suggest that the rankings and point spreads to go shove it.
The Yellow Jackets return from their open date to face No. 4 Miami at Bobby Dodd Stadium at noon. At 3:30 p.m. in Oxford, Mississippi, No. 3 Georgia engages in another titanic SEC matchup, this one against No. 16 Ole Miss.
Fun fact: In each of the past six weeks, at least one team ranked in the AP top 10 (and often more than one) has lost as a favorite and/or to a lower-ranked opponent with a number of near upsets in the path. Chaos looks upon the 10.5 points that the Hurricanes are favored by over the Jackets and scoffs, “Hold my beer.”
On Oct. 5, Vanderbilt stunned then-No. 1 Alabama as a 23.5-point underdog. On Sept. 28, then-No. 6 Ole Miss absorbed a defeat from Kentucky as a 15.5-point favorite. The state’s newest FBS team, Kennesaw State, played its own part in roiling the CFP pool, stunning playoff-aspirant Liberty as 25.5-point underdogs Oct. 23.
In this season, with the transfer portal and name, image and likeness money having spread talent across FBS, rankings, point spreads, win probabilities and the like seem but the faintest of suggestions.
Let’s start with the noon game at Tech. Miami is 9-0 and, as of Thursday, led FBS in total offense (556.9 yards per game) and scoring offense (47.4 points per game). Certainly an impressive lot.
But favor has graced the Hurricanes in at least two games. They defeated Virginia Tech when the Hokies’ last-second pass was ruled a game-winning touchdown on the field before it was reversed by a video review that did not seem to pass the “incontrovertible video evidence” test.
The following week, Miami was down 35-10 to Cal in the third quarter before rallying for a 39-38 win. The comeback was abetted when an apparent targeting penalty against the Hurricanes late in the game was not called (also on a replay review).
The larger point about the Hurricanes is that it won’t be a surprise if the Jackets find themselves in the game in the fourth quarter. In two other Miami wins, the Hurricanes were tied 38-38 with Louisville early in the fourth and led Duke 32-31 at a similar juncture before pulling away in both games.
To its credit, Miami is undeniably strong in the fourth quarter, outscoring opponents 131-41 in the final period.
It would take Tech’s best performance of the season, perhaps by far, to get into that position. But the Jackets are coming off their open date, meaning they should be much healthier than they’ve been and presumably as prepared as they could hope to be.
If quarterback Haynes King returns from his shoulder injury after missing the past two games, Tech has a dual-threat playmaker who can hold his own with Miami quarterback and Heisman Trophy candidate Cam Ward. And it wouldn’t be a surprise, either, if Tech were to have success running the ball with running back Jamal Haynes. Miami was eighth in FBS in rushing defense (95.2 yards per game), but in the one game when the Hurricanes faced a team ranked in the current FBS top 50 in rushing offense (Virginia Tech), the Hokies gashed Miami for 206 rushing yards. As of Thursday, Georgia Tech was ranked 48th at 176.8 rushing yards per game.
Further, upsets are familiar territory for the Brent Key-coached Jackets. Under Key, they’re 5-1 against nationally ranked ACC opponents, including their 23-20 win last year at Miami (then 17th).
The Hurricanes have managed to escape their fourth-quarter scares thus far. It doesn’t mean it’ll continue. Who better to add to the madness than two charter members of the ACC’s Coastal Division, the originators of chaos.
As for the Bulldogs, they face an estimable opponent that needs to win to keep its CFP bid alive. After getting thrashed in Athens last year – a 52-17 defeat in which Georgia averaged an absurd 10 yards per play – Rebels coach Lane Kiffin went to the transfer portal to bolster his defense. Thanks to the generosity of the Ole Miss collective, the Rebels were second in rushing defense (82.2 rushing yards per game) and first in average yards per carry (2.28) in FBS as of Thursday.
“Big humans. Large, fast humans,” said UGA coach Kirby Smart, explaining the success of the Ole Miss defense with the brevity of a haiku master.
An upset of the Bulldogs, who physically are beat up at the running back position, could start there. Presumably, Ole Miss is hoping to fence in the Georgia run game and then put the game on the shoulders of Bulldogs quarterback Carson Beck, who has performed brilliantly when he hasn’t been making puzzling (“catastrophic” was Smart’s adjective) decisions about where to throw the ball (eight interceptions in the past three games, one for every 16.1 pass attempts).
Add in the playmaking capacity of Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart (the FBS leader in total offense at 384.9 yards per game), his offense’s wide-open passing attack and a fervent home-field advantage, and there’s ample potential for the Bulldogs’ second loss of the season. Georgia was a 2.5-point favorite as of Thursday.
Like Miami, Georgia has found itself tangled later in games than its supporters might prefer. The Bulldogs barely survived Kentucky 13-12. They did lose to Alabama. They led nosediving Auburn by a mere four points with four minutes remaining in the third quarter. They led a one-win (at the time) Mississippi State team by only 10 points through most of the fourth quarter. With five minutes left in the game Saturday, they were tied at 20-20 with a Florida team that was down to a preferred walk-on quarterback.
Nobody is invincible this year, not Miami, not Georgia and not anyone else. The autumn of 2024 is a season of vincibility. (Who knew that was actually a real word?)
And now that the potential of this double-upset Saturday has been broached, all that’s left is for Georgia and Miami to win handily.
