From the files of “mind-boggling statistics regarding the Braves’ atrocious start,” consider this submission:
As of Friday morning, rookie catcher Drake Baldwin ranked 19th in MLB in barrel percentage. For the uninitiated, a “barrel” is a ball struck with exit velocity and launch angle that fits with balls that have led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage. Barrel percentage is barrels per plate appearance; Baldwin’s is 15%.
The players directly above and below Baldwin in 18th and 20th (Anthony Volpe of the Yankees and Jackson Merrill of the Padres) had identical slugging percentages of .708.
Baldwin’s slugging percentage (the same as his batting average): .056.
Further, the players in 16th, 17th, 21st and 22nd in barrel percentage were slugging .391, .542, .750 and .792.
One more oddity from Baldwin’s first week as a major leaguer: Baldwin has recorded an exit velocity of 95 mph or more 10 times, which had him tied for 33rd in the majors. It’s all the more impressive considering that Baldwin has played in only five games.
Before Friday’s games, 10 other players had exactly 10 batted-ball events, as they’re called, with exit velocities of 95 mph or greater. In those 100 plate appearances, they were hitting .423 with 13 home runs. None of the 10 had fewer than three base hits.
Baldwin: 0-for-10.
It is truly anomalous. Baldwin might choose a different adjective.
Few players are hitting the ball as hard as frequently as Baldwin. Yet, of the 182 players who qualified for ranking after Thursday’s games, only one had a lower slugging percentage than Baldwin and only two had a lower batting average.
There is a little bit of context. Baldwin has hit a lot of ground balls, which don’t give him much chance of success no matter how hard they’re hit.
Still, small sample size and all, that would seem some remarkably bad luck, best encapsulated in the hot grounder that deflected off the leg of Padres pitcher Robert Suarez right to first baseman Luis Arráez for a groundout in the second game of the season. Two of Baldwin’s flyouts have gone to the wall.
According to Baseball Savant, Baldwin’s expected batting average (largely based on exit velocity and launch angle) is .242, and his expected slugging percentage is .614. But both, as noted above, are a meager .056 at 1-for-18.
First baseman Matt Olson also has a healthy gap between expected slugging percentage and his actual rate — .694 and .318.
This isn’t to say that these are the only reasons the Braves are 0-7 or that you should go ahead and keep saving for World Series tickets.
But, certainly, don’t be surprised if we see more from Baldwin.
Maybe a torpedo bat would help.
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